Is Dennis Richardson considering another run for Governor? Bob Moore's touting a poll (again)

Kari Chisholm

Sometimes, the story isn't in the text of the press release. It's in the fact that there's a press release at all.

Last week, Republican pollster Bob Moore released a poll showing Dennis Richardson as the strongest potential gubernatorial candidate among Republicans. In Moore's poll, Governor Kate Brown leads Richardson 48-41. He's got Allen Alley down 47-32, Shane Bemis down 45-26, and Bud Pierce down 45-27.

Now, remember that Bob Moore's polling has often been called deeply into question. Not only has he been wildly wrong more times than seem justified by random sampling, but he's known for releasing polls that are engineered for political purposes. Here's what I wrote in 2012:

A week before the election in 2008, Moore had Gordon Smith beating Jeff Merkley by 4%, when two other polls conducted that same day had Merkley up by 5% (Hibbits) and 7% (SUSA). Merkley, of course, won by 3%.

In 2010, Moore had Scott Bruun beating Kurt Schrader by 4%, less than a week before voters started casting votes in an election that Schrader won by 5%.

And most dramatically - in 2010, he did it in the race between Jim Huffman and Ron Wyden, claiming Huffman was leading 47 to 38%.

The O's Jeff Mapes called that poll "a fantasy", and national pundit Stu Rothenberg was apoplectic - noting that Moore refused to release any details and saying that the campaign "has something to hide." Wyden won handily 57 to 39.

So what matters here are not the numbers.

Rather, what matters is that he's touting a poll that shows Dennis Richardson doing better than other Republicans -- which suggests strongly that Richardson may be considering the race. After all, in 2014, Moore was Richardson's pollster. It seems unlikely that Moore would release this poll without Richardson's OK.

(Oh, I should give credit where credit is due. Moore is so discredited as a pollster that, as far as I can tell, no Oregon media outlet reported this poll. Good for you, everyone.)

By Kari Chisholm April 28, 2015