I'm (Still) For Obama and Merkley
A year ago today I wrote a post in support of Barack Obama. Having been a political junkie since I was 16, I have regularly had the experience of jumping on a campaign early and finding my interest wane--either the campaign falters or the candidate develops into someone other than who I expected. But every once in a while, the blind squirrel finds the nut. 
My early impressions of Barack Obama turned out to be right on the mark:
- "He's qualified." Experience is only a proxy for how well a candidate will govern. If Obama's proved anything in the past year, it's that he has the skill to manage a massive campaign, and the strategic foresight to chart a winning strategy.
- "He's right on the issues." With three good liberals, it never was an election about the issues; but looking forward at a race against McSame, Obama's looking great.
- "He's right on tone." When the media, Clinton, and McCain were all hammering him, it would have been politically expedient to abandon his approach and go on the attack. That he refused to do so under that intense pressure says volumes about how he'll govern. Along the way, he may realign American politics.
- "He'll be strong in the general." Fortunately, this will now be a testable hypothesis. I expect Obama to pass it with flying colors--and about 58% of the vote.
- "He's inspiring." Well, duh.
Merkley - He'll Beat Smith
Jeff Merkley hadn't announced his candidacy a year ago. But ten months ago, even before he announced, I ran a series of posts (first, second, third) about why I thought he'd be a great candidate. Again, I feel vindicated in my early impressions. Those three posts are too voluminous to recap, so instead, I'll make the case I've been making to friends who've asked me for advice on this race.
Novick and Merkley differ on almost no issues--both are great progressives and both have long records of fighting for progressive causes. Merkley is a better bet as a senator because of his impressive record at pushing legislation through as the Oregon Speaker of the House--but I know that doesn't convince everyone. So here's the clincher: he's the guy who will beat Gordon Smith. As we have seen in recent polls, Smith is very weak--he's polling below 50% against both Dems, and his approval has been in steady decline for months. His seat is ready for the plucking.
Continue reading "I'm (Still) For Obama and Merkley"
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May 14, 2008 |
Jeff Alworth | Comments (23 so far)
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OR-5: Republicans Trade Blows
Accusations continue to fly in the Republican primary election for Oregon's 5th congressional district between Mike Erickson and Kevin Mannix. Today's Oregonian features a more detailed account from the friend of the woman whom Mike Erickson allegedly impregnated and then paid to have an abortion:
On Tuesday, Kristi Oetken sent an e-mail to reporters providing this account:"In 2000 (or) 2001, a very close friend of mine had dated Mike. During this time she became pregnant with his child. Mike drove my friend to a (Northeast) Portland abortion clinic, on the way he stopped by an ATM withdrawing $300 for her procedure and dropped her off across the street from the clinic.
"In tears, she walked across the street and into the clinic alone. I left work early, met her at the clinic and held her hand through the entire procedure."
Oetken declined to speak directly with a reporter or to answer further questions. In her 2006 e-mail, Oetken identified the woman who had the abortion as "Tawnya." She said she and her friend were motivated by Erickson's portrayal of himself as an anti-abortion, pro-family candidate.
Late Monday, the Portland Tribune reported on its Web site that a woman claiming to be Erickson's ex-girlfriend also confirmed the allegations. The newspaper did not identify the woman, citing privacy concerns.
Meanwhile, Erickson has tried to put his own unique spin on the accusations, hitting Mannix for being pro-tax. KGW has Erickson's statement in response to the story:
“Kevin Mannix’s smear tactics are the last gasps of a desperate candidate who is sinking under the weight of his long record of raising taxes. Time has run out on Mannix running for office with nothing but lies and deception. All the voters know about Mannix is his dirty politics and shady financing.Mannix does not have any other message for voters except his politics of personal destruction. Mannix is desperate to hide his 83 votes for higher taxes. Mannix would rather use smear tactics than admit he has supported over $3 billion in tax hikes.
Is that the character of a person you would like in Congress? Deception, deceit, accusations, and higher taxes?”
The Oregonian ran an editorial this morning that courageously called on whichever candidate is lying to drop out of the race:
If reports about past conduct by Mike Erickson can be substantiated, he's the one who should beat a hasty exit for the sake of his party. His opponent, Kevin Mannix, in an 11th-hour direct mail appeal to 60,000 GOP voters, raised allegations that Erickson got a woman pregnant eight years ago, gave her money to have an abortion and callously dropped her off at the door of a clinic where she had the procedure.Erickson says the story isn't true, but if it holds up, it could doom his candidacy in November should he become the Republican nominee. His party's anti-abortion constituency would not be alone in seeing hypocrisy in his claim to be a "pro-life, pro-family" candidate.
However, if the story proves untrue, Mannix would become the poisoned candidate. He would be guilty of spreading a falsehood so reckless that it would leave him unfit for office.
Also today, PolitickerOR reports that Erickson has donated another $275,000 to his campaign.
Discuss.
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May 14, 2008 |
in the news | Comments (4 so far)
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Breaking: Edwards to endorse Obama today
The Associated Press is reporting that John Edwards is going on stage with Barack Obama in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and will issue his endorsement in the presidential race.
In February, the entire Oregon for Edwards committee - chaired by Speaker Jeff Merkley, Senator Margaret Carter, and attorney Robert Stoll - had endorsed Barack Obama.
More later, once the endorsement happens.
Discuss.
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May 14, 2008 |
in the news | Comments (34 so far)
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Record spending in Eugene in the Mayor's Race
The Eugene Mayor's race is shattering all records for fundraising, mostly driven by Jim Torrey, the former Mayor, who's trying to get back his old office. (In between, he ran unsuccessfully as a Republican against Vicki Walker in 2006).
According to the Eugene Register-Guard, as of May 5th Torrey had raised $215,097, setting him on a pace to easily double the most ever spent in a Eugene Mayor's race. Piercy had raised $109,383 as of the 5th.
To put this money in perspective for those Blue Oregon readers in Portland, there are about 85,000 voters in Eugene. By comparison, there are about 312,000 voters in Portland. If a Portland Mayoral candidate were to spend on this level per voter, they'd have to be at about the $800,000 mark as of May 5th.
From an environmental perspective, a Torrey victory would be a huge step backwards. Current Mayor Kitty Piercy has been a strong leader in helping promote sustainable jobs and a healthy environment, often having to break 4-4 ties on the otherwise split council. In contrast, when Torrey was Mayor, he routinely sided with developers in fights against neighborhoods.
As Alan Pitman with the Eugene Weekly put it a few weeks back,
"Jim Torrey has raked in record-breaking donations from developer, land speculator, sand and gravel, construction, timber and other special interests who stand to make huge profits from the urban sprawl and freeways he envisions as mayor."
Blue Oregon readers may want to show Kitty Piercy some support by donating to help her get her message out over the last week.
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May 14, 2008 |
Jonathan Poisner | Comments (17 so far)
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DSCC IE hits back at Gordon Smith, defends Jeff Merkley
In a new ad, the DSCC hits back at Gordon Smith - and defends Jeff Merkley.
The ad was produced by the DSCC's independent expenditure operation (not coordinated with any campaign, or even with the DSCC people who work with campaigns).
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May 14, 2008 |
open discussion | Comments (24 so far)
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A New Voice At City Hall
By Nick Fish of Portland, Oregon. Nick is a candidate for Portland City Commissioner Position 2.
This year we can change the direction of our country and change the direction of our city. As a lifelong progressive Democrat, I am running to bring a new voice to City Hall.
For the past 20 years, as a civil rights lawyer and civic activist, I have helped people without power achieve justice by fighting for better pay and benefits for health care workers, helping those suffering the crushing burden of poverty find good homes and leading a community coalition to save the Portland Women's Crisis Line. Pursuing equality is not about lofty platitudes. It is about the hard work of creating opportunity in people's lives.
That’s why trusted progressive leaders and organizations throughout our community are supporting my campaign - from Governor Barbara Roberts, Gretchen Kafoury and Rep. Tina Kotek to the Multnomah County Democrats (co-endorsed), NARAL Pro-Choice Oregon (Green Light)and the Basic Rights Oregon Equality PAC (Green Light).
Nothing is more fundamental to our success as a city than maintaining great urban school districts. Great schools anchor our neighborhoods, maintain our quality of life and attract the businesses that we need to make this city thrive. My commitment to public education is very personal. My daughter is a ninth grader in Portland Public Schools, and my wife teaches history at Portland State University.
As City Commissioner, I'll be a tireless advocate for kids and schools. Whether it's supporting the Children's Investment Fund, advocating for stable and adequate funding from Salem, or building partnerships for before-and-after schools programs, city government has a vital role to play in supporting our schools. I am proud that I am the only candidate in this race endorsed by both the Portland Association of Teachers and Stand for Children.
Our schools are but one piece of an interconnected set of issues key to Portland’s success which require a fresh perspective. We all know the high cost of living, combined with the recession, are pricing too many people out of our city, including older adults, working families and young people. The rapid rise in housing costs poses a clear threat to our neighborhoods, schools and livability. We need a city government that is responsive to all of these voices.
Continue reading "A New Voice At City Hall"
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May 14, 2008 |
guest column | Comments (8 so far)
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A first: BlueOregon - live from the Democratic Convention!
This morning, the Democratic National Committee announced the blogs that will be officially credentialed at the Convention in Denver. One blog from each state was chosen. (Later, they'll release national blogger credentials, which may include more state-level bloggers.)
For Oregon, the DNC has credentialed BlueOregon.
We'll be sending Jeff Alworth as our official correspondent on the floor (though Kari Chisholm will also be in Denver, and will be doing some coverage as well...)
BlueOregon's coverage of the Convention will certainly hit the big national stories, but our primary goal will be to focus on the Oregon angle whenever possible. Jeff will be talking to Oregon delegates, covering Oregon-focused events, and giving our readers a look inside the Oregon delegation's experience and reactions.
From a statement by Howard Dean:
"Similar to the record-breaking voter turnout our Party has seen during the primary season, the demand for these coveted blogger positions is yet another indicator of the tremendous interest in this historic Convention," said Governor Dean. "The Internet has played a critical role in connecting Americans to elected officials and candidates seeking office. The DemConvention State Blogger Corps will continue to foster this dialogue - in all 50 of our states and our territories too - as we head towards this year's historic election and elect a Democrat to the White House."
The full list of blogs is here.
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May 14, 2008 |
blueoregon admin | Comments (13 so far)
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Tax Break for Wealthiest Oregonians Exceeds Lost Timber Payments
As rural counties in Oregon grapple with the loss of federal timber payments, a new study estimates that the tax break enjoyed by the wealthiest Oregonians as a result of federal tax cuts on capital gains and dividends exceeds the amount of the counties’ loss.
The preferential tax rates on capital gains and dividends enacted by Congress in 2003 will slash more than $350 million from the 2009 tax bill of the wealthiest 1 percent of Oregonians, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Citizens for Tax Justice (CTJ). The wealthiest fifth (the top 20 percent) of Oregonians are expected to reap about $500 million next year from the preferential tax treatment.
The amount going to the wealthiest 1 percent of Oregonians alone is more than the approximately $300 million shortfall that Oregon rural counties face this year as a result of the expiration of federal timber payments.
The loss of federal timber payments threatens the ability of rural counties to fund key services such as road repairs, schools and public safety.
Congress must rethink its priorities. Instead of giving special tax benefits to the very wealthy, who can get along without them, we should be investing in our people and infrastructure.
Continue reading "Tax Break for Wealthiest Oregonians Exceeds Lost Timber Payments"
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May 14, 2008 |
Chuck Sheketoff | Comments (20 so far)
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Portland Tribune/KPTV Poll Results
The Portland Tribune and KPTV have released the results of a series of polls in the contested Democratic statewide primaries, as well as in some nonpartisan Portland races (click on table for a link to the story):
Discuss.
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May 14, 2008 |
in the news | Comments (25 so far)
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Understanding "margin of error"
Editor's note: Deep in the comments on Kari's post about the SurveyUSA poll, Chris Lowe - who boasts a Ph.D. in history from Yale and is currently working on an MPH at OHSU - explains the concept of "margin of error". He's a supporter of Steve Novick.
I'm sorry, but despite TJ and Miles also being Novick supporters, the MOE point is being spun a bit out of control here.
The first point (so to speak) is that though the data aren't perfect, they are data. If we took the arguments being made here literally, there would be no point in polling. The fact that Jeff is up in this one sample means that it is more likely that he really was up than if the numbers were equal or if Steve were up at the time of the poll.
TJ and Miles are writing as if the probabilities are equally distributed within the MOE / confidence interval. But they are not. That's why a normal curve is higher in the middle than at the ends. Within the interval some results are more likely than others.
TJ points out that what pollsters call MOE represents what other statisticians call confidence interval. Also that conventionally a standard of 95% confidence is used. Also that the points that bound 95% confidence are found on a normal curve are just under 2 standard deviations from the midpoint.
(A normal curve is a certain type of shape of curve produced by the distribution of probabilities in a random sample, the famous bell curve; a standard deviation is a measure of spread -- the wider the spread of probabilities, the wider and flatter the curve, and the bigger the standard deviation.)
What he does not say is that at the points marking out 1 standard deviation. i.e. half the distance from the midpoint of the 95% confidence points, the confidence level is 68%.
What this means for a poll with a MOE of 4% is that we can have confidence that 95% of a large number of samples would fall within 4% of the midpoint on either side (midpoint=the poll sample %, in this case 31% for Jeff, 27% for Steve), but also that 68% of such samples would fall within 2% of the midpoint.
So with Jeff 4 points up from Steve, if this were a random sample, it's roughly twice as likely that he was actually ahead of Steve in the population sampled, than that Steve was ahead of him, at the time of the poll.
Continue reading "Understanding "margin of error""
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May 14, 2008 |
notable comment | Comments (20 so far)
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Reactions to John McCain in Portland
When John McCain appeared in our fair state on Monday (declaring it a winnable swing state for the GOP), it was all-hands-on-deck for Democrats.
The DPO organized a protest outside the Sheraton Hotel where McCain was holding a $33,100/couple fundraiser. From the Mercury:
Frank Dixon is a retired Major in the Army Reserves and now the Vice Chair of the Democratic Party of Oregon. He also happens to be an uncommitted superdelegate.Major Dixon stood alongside a handful of Democrats and protested McCain’s “100 years in Iraq” comment.
“We need to get out of Iraq. There’s been over 4,000 deaths, exponentially more wounded, 100 Oregonians have died in the war so far, and we have no exit strategy. We have no good reason to stay.”
The Oregon AFL-CIO went one step further - and booked a room inside the Sheraton. They held a town hall meeting on health care. From the AFL's website:
Oregon’s working men and women waited…and waited…and waited just steps away from Presidential hopeful Senator John McCain’s $33,100 per couple fundraiser Monday evening to tell their stories of health care crisis and struggle to the presumptive Republican nominee. But McCain never showed.In fact, when Oregon AFL-CIO President Tom Chamberlain offered to approach his campaign team with one last polite, in-person request to see him Chamberlain was threatened with arrest. ...
Monday’s event in Portland was the first event of its kind in the nation where union members and working families were stationed and waiting in an adjacent conference room in the same venue McCain's scheduled event, making it possible for John McCain to walk only a few steps to meet with working folks.
Who's the leader of Oregon's Democrats? The leader of the fight to defeat John McCain? Our Governor, of course.
That's why Governor Ted Kulongoski held a press conference to denounce Senator McCain's irresponsible policy on... um, wait... never mind.
Baffling. Bizarre. Inexplicable. Outrageous. Unbelievable.
Those are just a few of the words used in the dozens of emails and calls I've gotten about the Governor's appearance with John McCain.
I love Ted Kulongoski. I think he's a good man and a strong leader for Oregon. But on this one, he blew it.
Sure, there's a time and a place to set campaign politics aside - but one week before a primary election isn't it. And standing behind a campaign-branded podium isn't the way to do it.
Governor Kulongoski is passionate about climate change and renewable energy. He is absolutely committed to finding ways to create jobs while protecting the environment - and making Oregon a clean energy technology leader. And that's fantastic. I'm right there with him.
But you know who isn't? John McCain. He talks a good game about climate change, but just like his pal Gordon Smith, he's a fraud. He simply won't take the steps necessary to really reverse gears on global warming. As Jon Perr noted here at BlueOregon, it's a smoke screen.
I've talked to a number of folks close to the Governor - and they told me what I already knew: He's 100% committed to Hillary Clinton through this primary season, and will be 100% committed to the Democratic nominee for President in the fall.
John McCain says that Oregon is the purple-to-blue state that he can put back on the swing-state map. And he may be right. To defeat him in the fall, we're going to need all hands on deck.
The governor's heart was in the right place on this one, but this was a dumb, dumb, dumb mistake. Hopefully the next time he wants to highlight his efforts to create clean-energy jobs in Oregon, he'll do it standing next to someone who is actually committed to clean and renewable energy, fighting climate change, and eliminating our addiction to oil.
[Full disclosure: My firm built the website for Ted Kulongoski's campaigns in 2002 and 2006, as well as the Oregon AFL-CIO website. I speak only for myself.]
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May 14, 2008 |
Kari Chisholm | Comments (25 so far)
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Six Days Out: Open Discussion
With just six days to go until the primary election, there's news breaking every hour it seems. Use this post to post links to news stories, make comments, and discuss anything you want.
(One request: If there's another recent post that's more appropriate, comment there. Let's use this space to talk about campaigns that aren't getting enough coverage. We're looking at you, people obsessed with Merkley/Novick and Obama/Clinton.)
Discuss.
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May 14, 2008 |
open discussion | Comments (16 so far)
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