Lots of new polling numbers!
Kari Chisholm
Well, folks, we have ourselves a monster pile of polling results to wade through. Late Monday, the Oregonian released statewide and Portland polls from Elway Research, and OPB and Fox-12 released statewide and Portland polls from DHM Research. Here's the rundown:
| DHM Research | ||||
| Presidential | Obama | 49% | Romney | 42% |
| Sec State | Brown | 43% | Buehler | 37% |
| Labor Comm | Avakian | 22% | Starr | 19% |
| State Lege Generic | Democrat | 49% | Republican | 36% |
| M85: Kicker | Yes | 53% | No | 36% |
| Portland Mayor | Hales | 44% | Smith | 25% |
| Portland Council | Fritz | 37% | Nolan | 29% |
| Elway Research | ||||
| Presidential | Obama | 47% | Romney | 41% |
| Sec State | Brown | 38% | Buehler | 23% |
| Labor Comm | Avakian | 26% | Starr | 20% |
| M80: Marijuana | Yes | 42% | No | 49% |
| M82: Casino Amend. | Yes | 28% | No | 66% |
| M83: Casino Statute | Yes | 26% | No | 66% |
| M85: Kicker | Yes | 52% | No | 33% |
| Portland Mayor | Hales | 43% | Smith | 23% |
| Portland Council | Fritz | 38% | Nolan | 30% |
| Portland Arts Tax | Yes | 28% | No | 48% |
Lots of numbers there, of course. I'd love to hear what you have to say about 'em. Here's a few of my thoughts:
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It strikes me that there's remarkable consistency on the questions that both pollsters asked -- with the very big exception of the Secretary of State race, and to a lesser degree, the Labor Commissioner race. Hard to know why the discrepancies there.
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Despite all the Republican enthusiasm for Knute Buehler, it sure looks like he's going to get crushed by Kate Brown - whether by 6 points or 15. It just goes to show - newspaper endorsements are nice to have, but they're not critical for victory.
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Brad Avakian and Bruce Starr clearly haven't broken through to the public - and the lack of a party identifier on the ballot is making it hard for folks. That's partially going to get cleaned up when folks open up the voters pamphlet when they look at their ballot - but it also makes it super-clear that everyone who supports Avakian needs to speak up, and let their friends know that. Facebook is a critical tool here, folks.
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I don't know about you, but I'm rather surprised by the margin that Amanda Fritz has built over Mary Nolan. Before the primary, the conventional wisdom was that Nolan would roll over Fritz. That didn't happen then, but the conventional wisdom reasserted itself over the summer. Of course, lots of that "wisdom" was predicated on the idea that Fritz couldn't or wouldn't raise any money. I don't know if anyone knew she had the ability to drop large six-figure piles of cash into her campaign.
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I think it's a little strange that neither pollster studied Measure 79, the constitutional amendment by the real estate industry to ban a tax that doesn't actually exist (roll eyes). After all, other than the casino measures, this is the one that's had the most spending on its behalf.
Your two cents?
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2:35 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
Full disclosure: My firm built the campaign websites for Avakian, Brown, and the No on 79 campaign. I speak only for myself.
6:23 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
What about 84?
8:00 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
Yeah, that's another curious ommission.
7:51 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
The cannabis community is supporting Avakian...I know of at least 15 mmj orgs, including Stoney Girl Gardens and all of the Club Pit Bulls. I think that marijuana policy reform is going to play a big role in this election cycle. Not only are we voting on legalization - and the O reported that 80 is still pretty close with 9% undecided - but the cannabis community is really getting involved in lots of races.
8:49 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
On behalf of Measure 80, a few (hopefully) salient points:
1) support for marijuana regulation is strongest among 18-45 year olds, which is an under-represented demographic in this and most traditional, land-line polls.
2) Additionally, with the Oregon Student Association registering 50,000 new voters this fall and 30,000 in the last cycle, Measure 80 is looking at 80,000 new student voters, the majority of whom will support marijuana-policy reform.
3) Also worth adding that, on the topic of marijuana policy reform (including medical marijuana as well as legalization-through-regulation initiatives), there tends to be a 5-7% "fear factor" margin --a group of people who, when asked by a stranger over the phone whether they support legalizing and taxing marijuana, will say no or state that they're undecided, for fear of saying they support legalization to a stranger.
4) Both Jill Stein, the Green Party prez candidate, and Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party prez candidate, have endorsed Measure 80 and have spent time campaigning in Oregon. It's very possible that, in addition to pulling votes from both Obama and Romney, Stein and Johnson will help increase turnout for Measure 80 amongst voters that might otherwise have not voted.
Combine Stein and Johnson with the under-sampled young vote and the new voters and throw in the fear factor and we believe Measure 80 has a real shot at a dark-horse victory.
9:37 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
I hope you are correct, but 7% is a big gap this late.
12:17 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
Trying to bring the pro-marijuana forces together reminds me of the old 60's slogan: Anarchists Unite!
For better or worse this measure is complicated by: Too much technicality, strong personality at the center stage. Too easy to question ulterior motives empire building even if they seem alturistic.
If the pro-weed forces want a nice simple win I think they need a modest simple measure. I had suggested to some that something to the effect of legalizing like 3 plants per adult per year would stand a greater chance of passage. I would include an automatic re-vote in 2 or 4 years so it could be classified as a decriminalization experiment.
Well you asked for our 2 cents...
6:49 a.m.
Oct 31, '12
I've been involved in cannabis politics for about 10 years now, and I have never seen the groups so united. Of course I-24 would have been a better initiative to vote on, but folks are really stepping up and working to push 80 through, and most of the people I talk to are saying that even if they don't smoke marijuana, they are sick of paying for Prohibition and the whole mess.
11:54 p.m.
Nov 3, '12
Well looks like a solid win in Washington and a first class drubbing in Oregon. The state's aren't that different. Talked to a pro-pot voter yesterday who volunteered the Oregon measure was "just stupid." I'm not sure exactly what "cannibis politics" is but as a veteran of the olden days I can tell you there is a huge array of Oregon voters that are involved in this issue in their own ways that just want to lead their private lives and aren't concerned about capitalizing on dispensaries, taxes and permits that would love to help pass a nice clean measure but this thing has had looser written all over it since day one. I'm voting for it and hope it passes anyway but it's not happening. The movement leaders are a small fraction of stake holders in this issue-
2:25 p.m.
Nov 4, '12
Hardly: the latest poll I've seen shows 47% in favor and 10% undecided. Definitely doable. The Hippy-dippy folks who just want pot to be free are outnumbered by the people who are sick of seeing billions of dollars leave our economy every year because weed is illegal. This is no longer an issue that can be marginalized: the straights are fed up.
10:39 a.m.
Oct 31, '12
Paul's fame or notoriety, depending on POV, may influence some, but I think the measure is pretty well thought out. It anticipates the national battle to change federal law and drug scheduling. I think a simple measure would lead to marginalization in implementation.
1:13 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
Of course, a poll's methodology is the biggest influence. The crosstabulation data has yet to be released.
10:47 a.m.
Oct 31, '12
The Bid O's reporting suggests negatives with women, Republicans, and older voters. Perhaps a group of Country Club Grannies for Righteous Bud would have been helpful.
9:25 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
Re: Avakian
Post a comment on your Facebook page about why you support Avakian. Spreading the word in a way that let's your friends see it can be a huge thing. You're an influencer, whether you know it or not.
9:25 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
lets>let's. Bleh.
9:56 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
Glad to see Kate Brown beating the imposter. And good numbers on the corporate kicker repeal also
10:10 a.m.
Oct 30, '12
On Nolan-Fritz: conventional wisdom forgets that no one has taken out an incumbent City Councilor in Portland in a generation. And Fritz has a built-in megaphone serving on council and the media don't seem interested in the race, giving Nolan less chance to get known.
I like Amanda Fritz; she's a good fit under a different city governance structure.
But I'm a strong supporter of Mary Nolan, a proven, award-winning progressive leader with the management chops to move us forward. Go Nolan!
3:51 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
Nolan supports massive coal exports to China.
When the bicyclists and pedestrians are all afflicted with asthma, the oceans are even more toxic, mercuric, and acidified, and global warming is completely irreversible, who will want to Bike and Walk in Portland's Chinese-polluted air?
12:21 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
In the Labor Commission race the advocates of a non-partisan position are getting just what they wanted. This has been the same result in county commission races in Central Oregon where partisna labels were removed in recent years- ala Wasco & Jefferson Counties- for better or worse a partsian race gives you a better field of candidates (not to knock Avarkian- he seems OK) and gives the voters a clue about which end is up.
12:29 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
Conventional wisdom discounted Amanda Fritz union membership as the only candidate with a union card. The only candidate who won against the machine. The establishment view had Tom Potter losing his bid for Mayor. You gotta watch out for the little guy. GO AMANDA GO!
12:56 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
On Measure 26-146 - Schools and Arts Together The Oregonian’s Elway Research poll is flawed.
On October 26-28, 408 Portlanders were called and asked “There is a measure on the ballot that would assess each adult above the poverty level $35, would you/did you vote for the arts tax?” This is not a question that appears on the ballot, rendering the poll useless.
Since April 2012, four public opinion surveys have been conducted by reputable polling firms who personally questioned 1,600+ registered voters who self identified as likely to vote in the upcoming election. In each poll, every community member surveyed was presented with ballot measure language that described both the cost and the benefit of a yes vote. For two of the four surveys funded by advocates of the measure, the question was limited to the Ballot Title and Caption which appears on the Ballot: “Shall Portland restore arts, music for schools and fund arts through income tax of 35 dollars per year?”
In response to these four polls, 68% to 76% of Portland voters expressed support for this proposal.
1:02 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
Full disclosure - I work for the Portland Art Museum that will benefit from Measure 26-146.
10:30 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
Thanks, JS. That's important information. I'm working to confirm it.
7:19 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
Looking further at the DHM report I was pleased to see that Oregon voters are mostly planning to vote Dem for the legislature. Hibbits predicted a Dem majority for the House.
10:17 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
I am voting for the arts tax, but if it fails maybe political people will start paying attention to the awful Kitzhaber educational plan. Let's hope all the educators who have campaigned as being champions of education have clue.
10:18 p.m.
Oct 30, '12
Whoops, all the "legislators". not educators.
7:47 a.m.
Oct 31, '12
Seth Wooley is becoming my touchstone on how to vote. he's like the movie critic back in Billings, MT, where i grew up: if she hated a movie, we went to see it.
7:49 a.m.
Oct 31, '12
it was heartening to see Eileen Brady doing well as a write-in despite having disappeared from the political radar over 5 months ago. i'm proud to have been part of her team, and proud to be among the many Portlanders who have cast their vote for her.
10:50 a.m.
Oct 31, '12
I am thrilled to see Kate Brown's numbers. Scary thought to worry the SoS office & Elections Dept. could be in really bad hands otherwise!
1:44 p.m.
Oct 31, '12
I do need to say that unlike your "conventional wisdom" I am not all surprised that Amanda Fritz shows a strong lead for re-election. I happen to live in North Portland where Amanda carried EVERY precinct in the Primary, so my view is somewhat distorted, but in my conversations with people throughout the city I have seen widespread support for Amanda. Even people who disagree with her on specific issues say they will vote for her because she truly listens to people, and responds honestly.
12:53 a.m.
Nov 1, '12
Yes, I also live in NoPo and have fund that Amanda Fritz is willing to liste. I did not know that Mary Dolan supports coal exports, so it looks like I made the right choice on the ballot I already submitted. We in Oregon have a great system for voting.
12:56 a.m.
Nov 1, '12
Sorry, that is Mary Nolan, not Dolan.
5:56 p.m.
Nov 1, '12
Another interesting result in the DHM poll are the relatively high disapproval numbers for Obama. 23% in Portland and 43% statewide say they disapprove of his performance strongly or somewhat.
This captures Obama's problems in the election. He still has Democratic support, but enthusiasm for his job performance is much lower than he'd like.
2:24 p.m.
Nov 2, '12
meh. We need new ways of assessing 'approval' and 'disapproval'. I think a lot of people disapprove of the economy and hurricanes and crime and tepid educational results, and whatever bugs them, personally. This isn't the same as 'disapproval' for Obama. I'm not at all convinced of said 'disapproval'.
9:35 p.m.
Nov 3, '12
Some of that disapproval comes from the left who will still vote for Obama.