SurveyUSA has Rosenblum leading 52-27
Kari Chisholm
Wow. This is a huge number for Ellen Rosenblum in the Attorney General race. From KATU, who sponsored the SurveyUSA poll:
Out of 432 respondents likely to vote and those who had already voted, Rosenblum, a retired judge, received 52 percent of the vote while Holton, a former federal prosecutor, received 27 percent.
SurveyUSA conducted the poll between May 7 and May 10 and it had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percent.
The pollsters found that 21 percent of the respondents were still undecided.
Digging into the details, Rosenblum leads among both men and women, among all age groups, among all income groups, and in Portland and the rest of state. She leads among every ideological sector, except the 11% of Democrats who call themselves "very conservative" - among whom Holton leads 54-34.
Despite all the chatter here at BlueOregon, I can't imagine that medical marijuana has that much resonance as an issue. If these numbers hold up, to what do you attribute Rosenblum's strong showing against Holton?
Update, 9:25 a.m. The Oregonian's Jeff Mapes notes that the Rosenblum campaign released an internal poll a few days ago showing a 32-17 lead, and the Holton campaign released an internal showing him up 27-23. As for my question about the power of marijuana as a campaign argument, Mapes notes Rosenblum's support across nearly all demographics and suggests, "it's hard to see that as the determining factor in the race."
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9:23 a.m.
May 11, '12
I just received the following note from Dave Fratello, general consultant for Citizens for Sensible Law Enforcement. With his permission, I'm posting it here:
9:49 a.m.
May 11, '12
I voted for Rosenblum but I don't believe that margin at all. I don't believe the Pres. match-up is only a 4 pt margin either. I think these are flawed numbers. My guess, Rosenblum wins by 10-12 pts. Obama is leading 8-10 pts in Oregon.
10:56 a.m.
May 11, '12
Mandatory minimums was the big issue for me -- and why I voted for Rosenblum. Prison spending is growing faster than school spending and we'll be very hard pressed to find a full solution to our budget woes without fundamental criminal justice reform.
11:08 a.m.
May 11, '12
BANG BANG BANG
12:21 p.m.
May 11, '12
A lot of her lead feels to me like it's based on fairly misleading ads that more or less make Holton sound like he's some "conservative foreign invader" looking to take away your marijuana. That has no experience at doing anything. The SEIU didn't back the guy because he was the conservative candidate. He's basically got ideas to invest in prevention programs instead of being focused on making examples of criminals.
This is just one of those elections where exploiting the fear of outsiders looking to change laws that Oregon's progressives are pretty proud of is just really working on people's minds. I don't really know how well suited Rosenblum would be for the job...judges and attorneys don't exactly have the same job focus. All I know is that she can create a lot of ads bashing someone originally from another state (like me?).
7:21 p.m.
May 11, '12
The SEIU endorsed Holton, because before marijuana became the defining issue, all the smart money was on Hotlon. Holton was the favorite of the Democratic establishment.
7:22 p.m.
May 11, '12
Holton has far less experience than Rosenblum, anyways. His main attack point was his experience as an acting US Attorney, acting as if that somehow required more management skills than thirty years on the bench.
1:39 p.m.
May 11, '12
And to answer the question you posed, Kari:
Holton has a terrific message for somebody running for AG in the general election. He would beat the stuffing out of Rosenblum in such a contest--but that's not what this contest is.
This is a Democratic primary race, where voters are less interested in the "lock em up and throw away the key" mentality prevalent in Holton's message, or his support for Measure 11 Mandatory Minimums, or his belief that we should prioritize cracking down on medical weed growers over other criminal investigations and prosecutions.
Sorry, Dwight.
1:52 p.m.
May 11, '12
To clarify: I do not believe that medical weed is a significant factor by itself in this race, and I do not think that the final results will be this far apart. But Rosenblum will have a clear victory on election night.
1:40 p.m.
May 11, '12
The major policy issue in this race is clearly cannabis. Both candidates have great resumes and stances nearly identical on most issues. The glaring policy difference is in regards to cannabis law in general, not just support for the Oregon Medical Marijuana Program.
The National Cannabis Coalition has polling conducted by DHM Research that demonstrates that Judge Rosenblum is clearly more in touch with the will of Oregon voters, particularly Democrats. A whopping 84% of Oregon Demorats agreed with the following statement: “Enforcing the marijuana laws is a waste of police time, resources, and jail space. We should focus police on more important priorities like violent crime.”
Judge Rosenblum has stated very clearly that she will prioritize serious and violent crime over the enforcement of marijuana offenses. Dwight Holton has never made such claim and has even demonized Judge Rosenblum for her position, including in a recent e-mail blast to potential campaign donors. The issue of cannabis has dominated the news coverage of this race. If the polls hold up and Judge Rosenblum wins, her position on cannabis will be the reason and future Democratic candidates should take notice.
http://goo.gl/llTBC
2:29 p.m.
May 11, '12
Yeah, I have to say that while cannabis is not an issue of PRIMARY (no pun intended) importance to voters, the idea of the feds running roughshod over what Oregon voters have decided to allow is anathema--and if one candidate says he's going to help them do that, or at least not stand in their way, that's a clear choice. When the candidates are otherwise seen as similar, and one issue rises to the top in the media discourse, it's hard for me to imagine there's some other reason. Not being homegrown was thought to be a problem for Kroger, and Macpherson basically made it his entire ad campaign, and it was a grand failure (didn't help that the ads themselves were terrible-bad). For me personally, I was fairly ambivalent about the race, until I heard their differences on cannabis.
Kari, on a different note: I cannot BELIEVE you didn't highlight the fact that Rosenblum is credited with SIXTY-TWO PERCENT of the already-voted sample...and that's 40% of the entire sample! She's reportedly ahead by 20 of the remainder...if these numbers hold up it will be a BLOODBATH. She could top 60% easy.
12:35 a.m.
May 13, '12
Good catch. I didn't look at the tabs.
5:28 p.m.
May 11, '12
Holton has worked for the federal government for a long time, through some pretty wild swings in ideological temperature. I don't think you can do that without hewing to the dead center of the most well beaten paths. That works when you're boss is in DC, it might even work in an Oregon general election but I don't think it works in an Oregon Democratic primary (particularly for a seat uncontested by Republicans where there is no value in being able to attract votes outside the base).
7:19 p.m.
May 11, '12
Could not agree more with Dave Fratello. 2012 is the year that political pundits start to take the marijuana movement seriously.
Those who continue to stick their noses up at us do so at their own political peril.
7:57 a.m.
May 12, '12
Yes, it is clear that pundits are backpeddaling from the power of the marijuana issue as fast as they can and making an effort to belittle it, despite the fact that it is nearly the only issue that was talked about in this campaign. But the issue has been evolving for several years now, and we are talking about a program that has doubled every year since its inception. More than 80% of the voters support medical marijuana, so opposing the program and promising to crackdown on sick and disabled people when Oregon is the second raping-est State in the nation shows a serious disconnect with priorities.
4:40 p.m.
May 12, '12
I think medical marijuana as an issue has more resonance than you might think, Kari. If you listen to any of the ads, Rosenblum's ads do everything but come out and say that Dwight Holton is going to take away your marijuana and put you in jail. I've known very few "true" progressives over the years that are against the legalization of marijuana, and I've met almost none here in Oregon. I've met a lot of conservative Democrats that call themselves progressive that are against medical marijuana. I think "fear of outsiders" is also a very big factor in this race. Ellen Rosenblum very effectively cultivated a fear of "Virginia politics" invading our system, and I'm sure that's had an effect. However, a lot of Oregonians like myself originally came from outside the state (though it was 22 years ago in my case) and because of that, it forced me to stop a second and take a closer look at the facts. As far as I can tell, Holton, while he hasn't exactly been an advocate for medical marijuana (he's a prosecutor, for pete's sake...he wouldn't be very good at it if he let any unlicensed street dealer off whenever they tried to use a medical marijuana defense), he hasn't said anything about throwing out the law entirely (this is virtually what Ellen Rosenbaum has been claiming through her "husband and wife" type ads...which I instinctively have a revulsion to going all the way back to how they were used to FUD single payer health care back in the 90's).
What I hate about this election is the overabundance of negativity in a primary. It's disgusting and a lot of it is flat out dishonest. When Hillary Clinton did it in 2008, she slammed the door shut on my consideration of voting for her. I absolutely hate dishonesty in campaigns. If you elect a politician who is running a dishonest campaign (even a modestly dishonest campaign or a slight "exclusion of the whole truth" here and there)...only to find out 3 years later that they've been lying about things and are horribly corrupt...you voters get what you deserve. Dishonest attack ads are a slam-dunk guarantee that I will not vote for your candidate. And if they get elected, I may even elect to vote third party for their re-election.
8:08 a.m.
May 13, '12
For me, I didn't vote for Holton for an entirely different reason. I couldn't countenance voting for Kroger's picked successor. Kroger was an absolute disappointment and I am sorry I voted for him. As a guy who sues state entities now and then, I saw a very nasty turn in the DOJ. I don't mind zealous advocacy, but the DOJ became beyond over-zealous, stepping into unethical behavior. I didn't care for Rosenblum going negative in this type of race, but I knew I couldn't pick Dwight Holton.
5:41 p.m.
May 13, '12
Anyone who knows Ellen or has worked with her is familiar with her intellect, ethics and just general common sense approach to resolving issues. The AG's office is not a "super DA" and criminal enforcement should not be its sole focus. Our state faces a myriad of tough issues including the need for sentencing reform, continued mortgage foreclosure issues, a stagnant economy and growing income inequality. Ellen understands the bigger issues facing the state and the AG's office. Perhaps that's why former well-respected AG's Hardy Myers and Dave Frohnmayer endorsed her, as well as former US Attorney Kris Olsen.
8:57 p.m.
May 13, '12
Holton's mailer claiming Teachers, Children's advocates Working Families, Pro Choice Organizations etc. all agree,Dwight Holton is the Clear Choice for Attorney General, is simply not true because the pro-choice groups on his list, NARAL and possibly Mother PAC did dual endorsements. "Clear choice" is simply not true.