New Poll in Portland Mayoral Race
Evan Manvel
The first non-campaign associated poll in a couple of months has come out. It was conducted for Fox/OPB by DHM Research (a generally respected Portland polling firm) April 28-30.
To the numbers!
The research involved a scientific telephone survey of 400 City of Portland likely voters.
If the election were held today, would you vote for Eileen Brady, Charlie Hales, Jefferson Smith, or one of the other candidates?
Charlie Hales: 25% Eileen Brady: 23% Jefferson Smith: 20%
That means a couple of things: first, it's a wide open race, within the margin of error. Second, Smith and Hales have gained significantly over the last few months (Smith by six to ten points, Hales by six to nine points clarification: in the independent polls), unless the poll methodology was significantly different (as they've pulled the links, I can't say).
Here's a compilation of all the polls in the race [from Kari].
| Date | Poll | Brady | Hales | Smith | Und | Other |
| 2012-04-28 | DHM Research | 23 | 25 | 20 | 28 | 6 |
| 2012-03-26 | Hales for Mayor | 21 | 21 | 11 | 39 | |
| 2012-02-27 | SurveyUSA | 25 | 16 | 10 | 28 | 7 - Arrow, 3 - Dant, 2 - Brumm, 8 - "another candidate" |
| 2011-11-07 | SurveyUSA | 23 | 19 | 14 | 44 | |
| 2011-11-07 | SurveyUSA | 19 | 13 | 11 | 38 | 20 - Reese |
| 2011-10-30 | Brady for Mayor | 26 | 16 | 10 | 48 | |
| 2011-10-02 | Portland Business Alliance | 15 | 13 | 9 | 42 | 22 - "one of the other candidates" |
More results from the poll itself.
Reactions?
Disclaimer: I've endorsed Smith, as has Bike Walk Vote, which I co-chair. I speak only for myself.
 |
More Recent Posts | |
Albert Kaufman |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
Kari Chisholm |
Final pre-census estimate: Oregon's getting a sixth congressional seat |
Albert Kaufman |
Polluted by Money - How corporate cash corrupted one of the greenest states in America |
Guest Column |
|
Albert Kaufman |
Our Democrat Representatives in Action - What's on your wish list? |
Kari Chisholm |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
connect with blueoregon
8:37 p.m.
May 2, '12
What was that expression about robust women singing? Surely the alleged "undecided" shall "decide" soon. What our takeaway shall surely be, tonight:
It's close. The GOTV will be decisive, and Portlanders are clearly being persuaded by Smith's acumen.
9:52 a.m.
May 3, '12
And let's remember the important thing in this race is to finish in the top two. It's clear that nobody is going to get over 50%, so the top two will face off in November.
8:38 p.m.
May 2, '12
The later stages of the campaign have provided more opportunities for side-by-side comparisons, and Jefferson Smith does very well in that context.
8:51 p.m.
May 2, '12
It does seem that the undecideds are breaking for Smith in potentially decisive numbers, and interestingly, Brady has stalled.
Neither is shocking. Brady had a huge lead in name recognition but I never detected much substance in her debate or forum performances, and as the general public figured that out over time it's natural enough that her initial advantage would dissipate.
8:05 a.m.
May 3, '12
But the poll was finished on April 30th, which means it picked up nothing from voters' reaction to arguably the most-watched debate, on KGW.
8:48 a.m.
May 3, '12
I know--so it could get even worse for Brady if you include the post-KGW reactions.
11:40 a.m.
May 3, '12
You watched a different debate than I, then.
9:07 p.m.
May 2, '12
Had to remove spaces, only:
Posted: May 02, 2012 4:45 PM PDT Updated: May 02, 2012 6:55 PM PDT By FOX 12 Webstaff - email PORTLAND, OR (KPTV) - The following is a FOX 12-OPB poll by DHM Research conducted between April 28 and April 30.
The research involved a scientific telephone survey of 400 City of Portland likely voters.
If the election were held today, would you vote for Eileen Brady, Charlie Hales, Jefferson Smith, or one of the other candidates?
N=400
Total Charlie Hales 25%
Total Eileen Brady
23%
Total Jefferson Smith
20%
Other
6%
Undecided
28%
If voting for Charlie Hales, are there any particular reasons why you are voting for Charlie Hales?
N=99
Has much experience in city government
37%
Most qualified/experienced candidate
12%
Familiar with Portland area
7%
Endorsed by people/sources I respect
5%
Familiar with his name
4%
Personal background/work in transportation
4%
Maintain streets/roads—fixed potholes
3%
Proven leadership
3%
Prefer him over other candidate
2%
Professional/businesslike
2%
All other responses
1% or less
None
1%
Don't know
15%
If voting for Eileen Brady, are there any particular reasons why you are voting for Eileen Brady?
N=90
Businesswoman/local business owner
33%
Is a woman
12%
Started ‘New Seasons', which gives back to the community
9%
Very friendly/like her personality
7%
Will create jobs/stimulate economy
7%
Fresh voice in politics/newcomer
4%
Similar outlook to mine
3%
Great work ethic
2%
She's a Portlander
2%
All other responses
2% or less
None
16%
Don't know
2%
If voting for Jefferson Smith, why are you voting for Jefferson Smith?
N=79
Fresh ideas
9%
Pro-education stance
9%
Experience/knowledge of government
8%
Most sincere candidate
6%
Recommendation from a friend
6%
From/represents the eastside
6%
Television appearance/ads
6%
Grew up in Portland/from this area
5%
Opposes the Columbia River Project
4%
Progressive
4%
Pragmatic about our economy
3%
Problem solver
3%
All other responses
2% or less
None
3%
Don't know
24%
If undecided, what do you want to know about the candidates before you make your final decision?
Response Category
N=110
Stance on issues, in relation to my needs
18%
Views on education
6%
Their priorities
5%
Endorsements
5%
Morals
5%
Track record/accomplishments
5%
Vision for city/that they have the community at heart
4%
Stance on job creation
4%
Where they are on social issues
4%
That they are honest
3%
All other responses
2% or less
None
12%
Don't know
22%
9:25 p.m.
May 2, '12
Margin of error about 5%. It's a three way tie.
6:15 a.m.
May 3, '12
Exactly. The poll was released without specifying a margin of error, and so the only meaning I can derive from the numbers is that it's a close race. Which we all knew.
6:18 a.m.
May 3, '12
Found it: "For a sample size of 400, the margin of error falls within +/-2.6% and +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level."
9:24 p.m.
May 2, '12
The game-changer is that Brady has peaked - and ebbed. Wow.
This is the worst news possible for the Million Dollar Brady Campaign.
The wild card is that both Hales and Smith have surged.
We all predicted that Hales, with both the WWeek endorsement and the Oregonian's, was going to move. So that makes sense. The ink off the local print is worth a lot to a lot of voters.
Smith, though, forged his campaign forward with his critique of the CRC and with his unique biography as experienced local progressive campaigner and as powered with the endorsements of the Teachers, Firefighters, and, yeah, Bike Walk Vote, the only enviro PAC to get in the ring in this fight.
So, the question on the minds of many is: Can we see beyond a three way tie to the finish line?
The answer: With Brady peaked, and with the Hales campaign running with the dream of the 90s, while Smith moves forward with the most progressive platform and with the campaign with the most grassroots volunteer juice to surge ahead to the finish line, well, yeah, I'll put a beer bet on it that Jefferson Smith has the winning momentum.
But whoever you like the most, and whatever your connection to the campaigns, and no matter how busy you are, it is now time to turn off your browser, time to put on your walking shoes, and time to talk to your neighbor about how important it is to vote and make your best case for why your candidate is the one that's going to take Portland forward.
Full Disclosure: I love grassroots field organizing. And I already voted. And good luck favors the ready.
10:01 p.m.
May 2, '12
I got called this evening from Nevada by a research firm (Alway?) doing polling on the mayoral race for the Oregonian. They also polled on the Nolan-Fritz race and asked questions about the relative importance of city activities (bikes vs. cars, mostly). And whether I lived east or west of 82nd. So, there should some additional results to chew on soon.
10:42 p.m.
May 2, '12
That could be Elway Research up in Seattle.
6:58 p.m.
May 4, '12
That's the Oregonian's pollster. Sounds like we'll have another public poll to see soon.
10:41 p.m.
May 2, '12
FYI, I updated Evan's post to include the full polling chart for the race.
Full disclosure: My firm built Eileen Brady's campaign website. I speak only for myself.
10:45 p.m.
May 2, '12
Personally, the most fascinating result in this poll is the hypothetical four-way matchup that includes Sam Adams.
In this poll, we'd be looking at a four-way tie - Hales 22, Brady 21, Adams 18, Smith 17, Undecided 23.
Of course, had he run, the dynamic would be different and events would not have been the same - but it's fascinating to see that it'd be a four-way race with more undecideds than committed to any one candidate.
11:31 p.m.
May 2, '12
The same poll also shows Amanda Fritz leading Mary Nolan by a margin of 32 to 25. Full details from OPB (pdf).
10:24 a.m.
May 3, '12
Which is generally good news for team Nolan - as Fritz's March polling had her up 44-10%.
It could be a long election night/week, and this race could go to November, with 3% or 4% going to the other three candidates on the ballot.
There are a whole lot of undecided folks out there.
Time for me to stop blogging and start knocking doors for Mary Nolan, about whom the Tribune wrote: “among the most qualified candidates to run for city commissioner in recent years" and the Willamette Week wrote: "We have no doubts about [Nolan's] ability to lead and her track record of accomplishment."
11:54 p.m.
May 2, '12
In spite of the topline result which suggests a closing of the well-established gap between Jefferson Smith and the other top tier candidates, I find the details of this poll to be more bad news than good for Rep. Smith. If you take a look at the additional survey questions which asked respondents to sight the reason for supporting their preferred candidate, you’ll find that while Eileen Brady and Charlie Hales have both done an effective job of sharing their narratives with Portland voters, Rep. Smith has not.
For Brady, 33% of respondents say they are supporting her because she is a “businesswoman/local business owner,” the most common response. The second most common reason sighted was that she “is a woman” at 12%.
For Hales, 37% of respondents are supporting him because he “has much experience in city government” followed by “most qualified/experienced candidate,” at 12%.
Both of these results are in line with the message their respective campaigns have been pushing. The gap between the top two responses for each demonstrates that their messages have sunk in.
For Rep. Smith, however, there doesn’t seem to be an easily identifiable reason respondents have chosen to support him. In fact, the most common reason his supporters sighted was “Don’t Know” at 24%. Of the actual reasons to support him, respondents gave “Fresh ideas” 9%, “Pro-education stance” 9%, “Experience/knowledge of government” 8%, and on down from there. (Notably “Opposes the Columbia River Crossing” only gets 4%.)
To me, this demonstrates that while Eileen Brady and Charlie Hales have made it plain to voters why they believe they are the best person to lead Portland, Jefferson Smith hasn’t presented a simple, compelling reason of his own.
Under those circumstances, it’s hard to imagine how a plurality of undecided will break for him, which he’ll need in order to make the run-off.
4:43 p.m.
May 3, '12
I think it's because people feel they have many reasons to support Smith. Rather than pigeonholing himself into one or two memes (and losing people who don't identify with that), he's connected with voters on many levels. As such, each person has a varying reason why they support him.
1:48 a.m.
May 3, '12
Isn't that's what's already happened--a plurality of undecided voters has broken for him? Keep in mind, we're talking about 79 actual people in those poll answering those questions about Smith and without looking I think 99 for Hales.
The flipside of the "message hasn't gotten through" viewpoint is that Hales and Brady have their campaigns built on a particular narrow theme that draws those voters interested in that theme, but few others. While Smith has a broad appeal attracting a wide group of supporters, including those who can't really cite a reason but just feel he's the best. To characterize the biggest surge in the period between polls as "bad news" is a bit stretchy, don't you think?
I frankly think most people want more time to compare Hales and Smith against each other, without Brady. That's just my personal sense, that the early "nice lady from New Seasons" appeal hasn't matured on the stump into a compelling argument to lead the city.
The order is rapidly fadin'/ And the first one now/ Will later be last/ For the times they are a-changin (I guess I should have whipped that out BEFORE the poll, but whatever)
12:14 p.m.
May 3, '12
I kind of suspected that the reason there was such a high level of undecideds was that there are quite a few who are already familiar with Brady and Hales...and are still undecided because of that. It'll be interesting to see if they break for Smith.
And in my opinion, I'm not surprised they're not that impressed with either Hales nor Brady. Their political experience or business experience aren't hands down/slam dunk in my opinion and don't really reassure me they can run the city any better than, say, Sam Adams. I can think of several area political insiders whose experience is better than Hales, and offhand I can think of several businesspeople in the area that are as or more accomplished than Brady. I've got nothing against them at all, I just think those two don't bring much more to the table than the previous couple mayors. Smith definitely seems to bring a lot more energy, and for a lot of people right now, that's pretty inviting. What he's done with a fraction of the campaign donations is pretty impressive and says that the people who support him, really believe in him.
10:30 p.m.
May 7, '12
New Survey USA poll out: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=f5cfed5e-4284-4b22-b6ab-e2420cfc6016
The age and gender breakdowns are fascinating.
10:33 p.m.
May 7, '12
Full coverage coming shortly. :)