Filing Day: Looking ahead to the 2012 elections
Kari Chisholm
It's shaping up to be a fairly interesting - if somewhat unusual - election year in Oregon in 2012. Here's some observations and reactions from filing day, including some of the big news.
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Republicans appear to have had trouble coming up with serious contenders for Congress. Not a single one of their congressional challengers holds local or legislative office. As the O's Jeff Mapes notes, Bonamici's two challengers both lost the 2011 special primary race. Kurt Schrader's opponents include one candidate who lost the 2010 primary, and another who just retired to Oregon last year.
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But Congressman Peter DeFazio faces another challenge from crackpot Art Robinson - who raised and spent over a million dollars in 2010, and was the beneficiary of anonymous independent attack ads paid for by (it was later revealed) a Wall Street hedge fund executive. Even weirder? DeFazio drew a Democratic primary challenger - Matthew Robinson, Art Robinson's son. I have no idea what the explanation could possibly be.
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As I previewed for you on Monday, the Republicans failed to field candidates for Attorney General and State Treasurer. Not even sacrificial lambs. For a party that likes to brand itself as the party of law-and-order and fiscal prudence, well, that's kind of weird. So, that leaves Secretary of State Kate Brown vs. Knute Buehler as the one big statewide race in the fall - and, of course, the Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian vs. Sen. Bruce Starr race as the big statewide showdown this May.
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As I noted in my filing day roundup, the upside in the Oregon House is with the Democrats. The DPO notes that there are eight House districts held by Republicans where Democrats have a voter-registration advantage. And voter turnout will be on our side, too. As I wrote way back in 2006, Democrats almost always win Oregon House seats in presidential years (one in '88; none in '92; two in '96, '00, '04; and five in '08.) Republicans are claiming that their slate of small business owners can pick up seats, but I'm not buying it.
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Barnburner alert #1: In HD-48 (Clackamas/Happy Valley), Rep. Mike Schaufler faces a primary challenge from Jeff Reardon, who will surely win big support from key institutional players and activists of all stripes. Notably, former Labor Commissioner Mary Wendy Roberts declined to make the run. I received a note this evening from Mary Wendy Roberts endorsing Reardon:
I am delighted that Jeff Reardon is running in my district. I did actively consider running since I had not heard that any one else was willing to step up. Someone obviously needed to! When I heard that there was indeed another possible candidate, I talked both with him and his campaign manager, met with Jeff and discussed his background and some issues and was satisfied that Jeff would do a conscientious job as a legislator, and would mount a serious campaign and I have endorsed him. I hope those of you who can will support him with donations and volunteer help. Best regards, Mary Wendy Roberts
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Barnburner alert #2: In SD-27 (Bend/Redmond), Sen. Chris Telfer faces a primary challenge from former Rep. Tim Knopp. Knopp was the GOP majority leader in 2003 and is now an executive with the Central Oregon Home Builders. His full statement is here, and the O's Jeff Mapes has more background. Pass the popcorn!
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As I noted in my Senate roundup, there's very little likelihood of movement in the Senate. The only competitive race in the Senate appears to be in SD-5, where Speaker Arnie Roblan has a rematch with his 2010 opponent in HD-9, Scott Roberts. We're probably looking at another 16-14 Senate, or worst case, 15-15.
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The big surprise today in the Senate was the announcement by Sen. Jason Atkinson (R-Central Point) that he's giving up his SD-2 seat. He was reportedly working to get Rep. Wally Hicks (R-Grants Pass), but Hicks didn't jump. That sets up an open seat race between rancher and forest firefighting contractor Herman Baertschiger Jr. (R) and Josephine County Democratic Party chair Jim Diefenderfer (D). Call the bumper sticker and yard sign printers - they've got to recalibrate their machinery for Baertschiger vs. Diefenderfer! I'm more intrigued by Atkinson's statement to the O's Jeff Mapes that "I'm not going to be out [of public service] for long." Is he planning another run for Governor in 2014?
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I hadn't noticed this before, but there are three Oregon Supreme Court seats up this year - and two don't have an incumbent. That's surprising, since judges typically retire midterm to allow the Governor to appoint a replacement. Not this time. Justice Virginia Linder is running for re-election unopposed. And Dave Brewer, currently the Chief Judge on the Court of Appeals, is also running unopposed. But there's a big three-candidate showdown for Position 3 - with Court of Appeals Judge Timothy Sercombe, Multnomah County Circuit Judge Richard Baldwin, and former Oregon State Bar president Nena Cook. I'll be taking a closer look at all three in short order.
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Skimming through the filings, I also noticed that five county District Attorneys are facing challenges (Douglas, Hood River, Lake, Malheur, Wheeler). I have no idea if that's typical, or if there's some big dissatisfaction with DAs going on. In Polk and Jackson, each county has an open seat for DA that's drawn three serious candidates. But after much discussion about a big contested DA's race in Multnomah County (open for the first time in more than a quarter-century), Deputy DA Rod Underhill is running unopposed.
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In Clackamas County, several races look to be big. They're nonpartisan, so they all face off in May, with the top two likely going on to a November run-off. County Chair Charlotte Lehan faces challenges from Rep. Dave Hunt (D-Oregon City), Commissioner Paul Savas, and former Wilsonville Mayor and right-wing activist John Ludlow. Commissioner Jamie Damon faces three conservative opponents - John Swanson, aide to Sen. Chuck Thomsen (R); Dan Holladay, former Oregon City councilor and anti-Sellwood Bridge activist; and former Rep. Tootie Smith (R). In the open seat vacated by Ann Lininger, Martha Schrader faces two conservative opponents - Jim Knapp, an anti-light-rail activist; and Jeff Caton, who ran for State Treasurer in 2004.
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In Washington County, County Commissioner Dick Schouten will face off against Beaverton City Councilor Betty Bode.
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No surprises in the Portand mayor's race. The O's Beth Slovic has short biographical descriptions of all 23 candidates that have filed.
OK, what did I miss? And what are you reactions to the election lineup we've got?
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12:46 a.m.
Mar 7, '12
Full disclosure: My firm built campaign websites for Kurt Schrader, Peter DeFazio, Kate Brown, Brad Avakian, and Dick Schouten. I speak only for myself.
9:46 a.m.
Mar 7, '12
Minor spelling correction: Jamie Damon
Also, Jeff Caton ran as independent against Schaufler in 2010.
9:54 a.m.
Mar 7, '12
WRT the fourth district, I can only think that this was to prevent democrats from re-registering as republicans to vote for the late-filing-challenger-that-wasn't in the primary. So Art uses his kids as pawns in his paranoia inspired strategies. Nothing new here.
10:03 a.m.
Mar 7, '12
from Knopp's statement:
Knopp said he felt compelled to run, referring to Ronald Reagan’s quote “You and I have a rendezvous with destiny. We will preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or we will sentence them to take the first step into a thousand years of darkness. If we fail, at least let our children and our children’s children say of us we justified our brief moment here. We did all that could be done.”
so, another Republican with a Jesus complex. just what Oregon needs.
12:17 p.m.
Mar 7, '12
If Art Robinson is a crackpot, what does that make you? Art speaks of real solutions to real problems. As an educator he is surpassed by few.
2:47 p.m.
Mar 7, '12
Uh...real solutions to which real problems, exactly?
I'd settle for three specific examples, for starters.
1:38 p.m.
Mar 8, '12
Dave,
Art is a crank. I've covered this guy for at least three decades. He lives on an isolated hilltop near Cave Junction and likes to think he's throwing thunderbolts of wisdom from on high. He's an anti-social crank who really doesn't know how to get along with others-- to be charitable.
1:03 p.m.
Mar 7, '12
Regarding Art and Matthew Robinson: Not knowing them, all I can do is speculate, but the thought that occurred to me, is that by filing in the Democratic Primary, Matthew will be able to submit a voters pamphlet statement that either touts his father or attacks DeFazio. This is a cheap way to get some advertising out there that will likely be read by Democrats, to build up to the General Election. Since the real race will be in the General, Art can get a jump on the campaign by having his son submit a voters pamphlet statement in the Primary.
2:26 p.m.
Mar 7, '12
Interesting theory, Jim. That's a pretty good motive. Again Art uses his kids as pawns. Not sure when they find time for their studies while dancing to Dad's tune.
1:33 p.m.
Mar 8, '12
Art's motives are probably all of these things, but mostly it's to make DeFazio raise and spend money in the primary he would otherwise have in the bank to spend in the General against Art. These hedge fund hustlers hate DeFazio because he is among the people drawing attention to the rate of tax they pay on unearned income -- which is a scandal.
5:30 p.m.
Mar 8, '12
According to KVAL, Matthew got involved because that mean Mr. DeFazio said they live in a survivalist compound. Matthew says it's a sheep farm, I prefer to call it (OSMI) a tax dodge but, you know...
8:35 p.m.
Mar 7, '12
The Multnomah County Dems are proud to announce a Mayoral Candidate Forum consisting of all Democrats seeking that seat. 15 - count 'em - 15 Democrats will take the field for a classic Rugby-esq scrum
4/1/12 MIDNIGHT
OF course, I AM kidding!!
Good grief....
10:44 a.m.
Mar 8, '12
Funny.
But, actually, that wouldn't be so bad.
Back in 2000, I was the moderator of the only debate that included Mayor Vera Katz and her main challenger, the 20-year-old Jake Oken-Berg.
Mayor Katz insisted that if she was going to appear at a forum with Jake Oken-Berg then all 17 of their opponents would have to be invited too.
All but two showed up, so we had 17 people on stage. Rather than ask each person to answer each question (which is obviously absurd), it worked like this: We took questions from the audience. The questioner could address the question to one or two candidates. Those candidates would get to answer, then I'd solicit answers from up to two more candidates. I kept a running tally of how many answers each candidate gave, and worked to keep it balanced.
Obviously, most questions went to Mayor Katz and Jake Oken-Berg - and everyone else got 3-4 answers in.
It went pretty well, all in all.
11:30 a.m.
Mar 8, '12
Wow, so how long did that event take?
3:46 p.m.
Mar 8, '12
90 minutes, I think? Maybe two hours.
6:17 p.m.
Mar 8, '12
"I hadn't noticed this before, but there are three Oregon Supreme Court seats up this year - and two don't have an incumbent... I'll be taking a closer look at all three in short order."
Counting on that, please.