Fritz releases poll with 44-10 lead over Nolan
Kari Chisholm
Well, now this is a bit of a curiosity. It's been an article of faith among the political chattering class in Portland that Rep. Mary Nolan is going to beat Portland City Commissioner Amanda Fritz. The only question was whether it would be in May or November - given the presence of three other candidates on the ballot.
But now, a new poll from Goodwin Simon Research - a firm advising the Fritz campaign - has released topline numbers from a poll of 402 likely primary voters earlier this month. From the polling memo (full pdf here):
In head-to-head competition for Portland City Council, Position One, Amanda Fritz leads Mary Nolan by a 34-point margin, up from a 26-point lead in October 2011, with a total of 44 percent of likely voters saying they would vote for Amanda Fritz and just 10 percent saying they would vote for Mary Nolan. Another 43 percent of likely voters are unsure. The other three candidates on the ballot share less than one percent support among likely voters.
The O's Beth Slovic has the response from the Nolan campaign:
Kristi Jo Miller Lewis, Nolan's campaign manager, said Fritz's poll results don't reflect their own campaign polling. Though she declined to share specific numbers, Miller Lewis said Nolan's results show "we're in a good position." She added that Fritz's campaign contacted a Nolan supporter through the poll, and the supporter told the Nolan campaign that Fritz's questions pushed positive messages about Fritz. Releasing the results showed that "Fritz is pretty desperate," Miller Lewis said.
Of course, campaigns only release polls when they're favorable, so apply a few grains of salt to the Fritz numbers. But the lack of competing numbers from Nolan seems to suggest that they haven't seen the opposite.
Now, it's certainly true that neither campaign has started airing TV ads - and Nolan has some $170,000 on hand while Fritz has just $42,000, according to the O. But that seems like a tall hill to climb.
What do you think? Is the conventional wisdom - a big Nolan win - just flat out wrong? Or just premature?
Whom do you support? And why?
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9:30 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
Regardless of what a biased poll may suggest, I along with most people I know are supporting Mary Nolan in the upcoming City Council election. Mary has been a tough and progressive leader in Salem, who we are lucky to have a chance to represent us in Portland.
9:55 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
"I am voting for Nolan over Fritz, she has don a great job representing SW portland"
9:41 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
Not sure where these polling numbers come from but Mary Nolan for sure!
9:43 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
I believed those numbers a lot more after seeing Nolan's response. Sounds like they have her behind too, just not by as much. The CW is definitely with a Nolan win, but on the other hand incumbency argues for Fritz.
9:46 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
I'm not concerned about those poll numbers. Nolan is one of the hardest working public servants we have - she has more really important experience than anyone running for any of the city races. She is supported by every major woman (Planned Phood, NARAL, BRO)and gay rights organizations, the city employee unions and tons of folks who know how great she is. Amanda has been ineffective at best.
9:50 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
I have known Mary Nolan since her time at the City. I find her grasp of issues facing the City in line with my beliefs of where our City should head to into the future. We as a City are still facing tough economic times. We need a leader, like Mary Nolan, with vision and knowledge on our City Council.
9:53 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
Mary Nolan is one of the sharpest, hardest-working leaders I've ever met, and I'm excited to see what she will do as a member of the Portland City council. She has been a pioneer for progressive causes and issues in Oregon, both here in Portland, and in Salem, as a legislator. Few people running for office anywhere come as qualified and informed as Mary Nolan. I'm looking forward to voting for her.
9:58 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
Nolan has proven herself in Salem and I can't wait to see her in city hall. She has my vote.
10:11 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
Nolan has my vote. Mary stood with us in solidarity in our battle for the Domestic Partnership Law and has championed LGBT rights for as long as I can remember.
10:20 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
I support Mary Nolan. Beyond all the the points made previously, we need advocates at City Hall who are willing to negotiate with other commissioners to get progressive work done.
10:36 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
I support Mary Nolan because of her long record as an accomplished progressive advocate.
10:56 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
I would be shocked if the majority of the poll respondents knew who Mary Nolan was or even if they know either of them. My guess is the poll identified one as the experienced city council woman and the other as a challenger. Portlanders are not so anti-incumbent as elsewhere in the country. So the polling was done with no voter knowledge of the choice at hand and it proves very little.
10:59 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
Seems that while Rep. Nolan has a lot of friends here, she'll need to spend that money quickly to introduce herself to the city's electorate at-large.
11:01 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
Any poll is a snapshot, at best. Mary Nolan has earned endorsements from groups and individuals who have worked with her for years and know that she delivers, such as Portland Firefighters Association Local 43, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 48, Oregon AFSCME Local 189, Planned Parenthood PAC of Oregon, and NARAL Pro-Choice Oregon. I support Mary because she gets things done for issues important to me and Portland's future.
11:22 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
Has any campaign's publicly-released internal poll not shown a favorable result for its candidate? Unless they release the full methodology, there's no point in taking those numbers at face value.
6:37 p.m.
Mar 21, '12
Yeah, I've seen a campaign release a "not yet, striking distance" internal poll.
But to your bigger point... Unless there's a specific reason to distrust a pollsters numbers, I think one has to assume they are being truthful about the numbers they got. The core brand for a pollster is accuracy.
Certainly, Goodwin Simon is a respected polling firm. I have no reason to believe there's anything amiss in terms of methodology.
Of course, they wouldn't have released it if it wasn't favorable. So there's some bias there, if one was trying to assemble polls into a pattern. But there's just one here.
As Bunster noted above, Nolan's response lends credence to the poll.
7:38 p.m.
Mar 21, '12
Yes, though I intentionally said "favorable result" rather than "in the lead". There's times when being only 5 points down or something is a favorable result.
I'm sure they arrived at those numbers somehow, I'm not suggesting they're just made up. That said, a few assumptions about who is a "likely" voter can have a big impact on the results. That's also assuming it wasn't a push poll, like the Nolan campaign alleges, and which there's no way to tell since there's no methodology included with the results.
I should also note that I say this all impartially, I have yet to pay any real attention to the race or choose a candidate. I just question whether it's really newsworthy when a campaign throws out some numbers like these without any evidence.
7:49 p.m.
Mar 21, '12
There's no way it was a push poll. If it were, hundreds of people would be reporting that they were "polled". And a push poll would never be reported, because the results wouldn't be tabulated.
A push poll isn't a poll at all - just a message delivery call disguised as a poll.
And no respectable pollster would have anything to do with a push poll.
Now, if you're saying they might have done message testing to get the results they're sharing, well, that's more plausible. An ethical pollster would reveal that, however, and Goodwin Simon is a prominent well-known firm.
Furthermore, if it was wildly out of whack with Nolan's topline numbers, Team Nolan would have said so.
12:26 p.m.
Mar 22, '12
This is an important point to make, Kari. Unfortunately many people misunderstand what a push poll is.
11:35 a.m.
Mar 21, '12
Fritz and Nolan will be debating at the City Club on March 30th if you are interested in hearing from the candidates live. You can reserve tickets here: http://pdxcityclub.org/content/city-council-debate.
4:48 p.m.
Mar 21, '12
It's just a snapshot. No money has been spent. I suspect those numbers will move.
7:52 p.m.
Mar 21, '12
Call it a betting line. There's a reason they play the games.
7:15 p.m.
Mar 21, '12
I will vote for Nolan. She's articulate and a true progressive. She's also tough enough to navigate the political landscape of City Hall.
7:55 p.m.
Mar 21, '12
I find it very, very odd that this is at least the second poll Fritz has released. And yet, she has no money to speak of.
So maybe her numbers are accurate, but what kind of campaign will she be able to run when she has few resources and is spending it foolishly?
1:08 p.m.
Mar 22, '12
It appears that Fritz has announced she has limited donations to something like $50 per donor. Take a look at Nolan's C and E report, and you see the difference in campaign finance philosophy.
2:18 p.m.
Mar 23, '12
If she has, she should be publicizing it as a major component of her campaign. Money in politics is a pretty hot issue right now.
Our Dem candidate from HD 52, Peter Nordbye, is the only candidate in the state for any office at any level who is refusing PAC money. Further he is limiting donations to $50 per human being. Said human beings must reside in HD-52 and are also the only ones from whom he accepts endorsements. Makes for a steep hill to climb.
www.neighborsfornordbye.com. Go have a look, but please don't send money unless you live in the district. He'll have to return it.
10:15 p.m.
Mar 23, '12
He is to be congratulated on its principles. There is so much Republican money in the district that such principles will not win the election.
1:23 p.m.
Mar 24, '12
As a college advisor told me, it's nice to be right, but it's more fun to win.
More importantly, the purpose of politics is to change policy. If you don't win, you can't change anything.
12:39 a.m.
Mar 22, '12
She has some of my money. And gosh she has pluck.
Calhoun is right; it's a measure of name-recognition (aka thousands of hours of WORK Amanda's done over the past four years to hold the doors of City Hall open for citizens).
5:02 a.m.
Mar 22, '12
Nolan is by far the most qualified.
11:25 a.m.
Mar 22, '12
Can't disagree with commenters who say Nolan is progressive and a hard worker. But so is Amanda Fritz. In fact, I don't think anyone on the council works harder or is more responsive to constituents. I wish we had a lot more people like her in government. Much as I appreciate Nolan's drive and competitiveness, i want to keep Fritz on the council. She gets my vote.
3:41 p.m.
Mar 22, '12
Maybe these poll numbers reflect some sort of "sympathy for the underdog" effect since Fritz doesn't have Nolan's financial resources or the backing of a lot of well-known organizations. People might be thinking "Poor Amanda, trying to be a good Commissioner and not taking big contributions and the well-connected Nolan is trying to use big money and influence to run roughshod over her." Nolan may want to watch how she's appearing to the general electorate, not just to activists and organization heads. BTW, I haven't made up my mind yet.
10:48 a.m.
Mar 23, '12
The comments that Nolan is a true progressive are kind of funny as if Fritz is some type of Tea Party candidate.
Fritz has, in my opinion, often been the lone voice of sanity, in a otherwise chamber of insanity.
2:11 p.m.
Mar 24, '12
Isn't there an element in Portland who can remember the very close recent election on public financing, which is how Fritz got elected in the first place? The power of citywide name familiarity will play a role, as the early polls indicate. However, polls at this time, when an opposing candidate is well-financed and has a lot of labor and business support, can be quite misleading. It will come down to the quality of Nolan's advertising and how much work she gets done on the street. Highest number of highest quality contacts win -- at least they do in a City of Portland race. Fritz does not have a high number of negatives with voters, like say a Frank Ivancie did. Don't think there is time for an opponent to build them credibly in the primary, so attack advertising is probably not going to work.
This is a very interesting race. Fritz has to hope she can win in the primary. Nolan has to push her to the general to win.
10:38 a.m.
Mar 26, '12
Kari's opening statement says a lot - "the political chattering class". The poll was not conducted among people who spend a great deal of time on political blogs. The poll was conducted among randomly selected "likely" voters throughout Portland, which will give a much more accurate reading of the potential outcome than would a poll of bloggers. In spite of the fact that I know many people who read Blue Oregon and support Nolan, I also know that among my neighbors, who I speak to regularly, there is overwhelming support for Fritz. The poll result does not surprise me one bit, when my neighbors tell me that they tried to contact City Councilors about an issue and Fritz was the ONLY one who actually responded, and who listened to them. Many of us who are involved in community activities in North Portland feel as if Amanda Fritz is an integral part of our community, because she actually participates and is involved, rather than just showing up to campaign.