OR-1: Cornilles' pollster says race is tightening
Carla Axtman
Grain of salt alert.
Yesterday, Rob Cornilles' pollster Bob Moore announced that Bonamici's lead in the First Congressional District has plummeted to 4 points, and that the race is essentially tied outside of Multnomah County.
Just 10 days ago, Survey USA released a poll showing Bonamici with an 11 point lead. That poll mirrored another done a month earlier for Daily Kos by Public Policy Polling.
In July 2008, Moore told the Oregonian that polling showing Jeff Merkley in the lead over then Senator Gordon Smith was done with "flawed methodology" and that Merkley wasn't well known enough at that point. Merkley ultimately won the contest a few monts later, 49.8% to 45.6%.
It seems like Moore may not exactly have his finger on the pulse of accuracy.
This is not to say that it's entirely impossible for Cornilles to have made up some ground. But 7 points in just over a week without any significant issues coming to the fore seems to stretch credulity.
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4:56 p.m.
Jan 16, '12
I voted Cornilles. Bonamici is too far left for my taste.
5:27 p.m.
Jan 16, '12
Thought Jeff Mapes comments on the accuracy of in-house campaign polling to be spot-on. That said, we need to keep the pedal to the medal to bring this one home, folks.
7:55 p.m.
Jan 16, '12
There is little doubt that Senator Bonamici will win, but I don't think that the dccc has helped her much with the negative campaigning. The early allegations of plagiarizing the campaign commercial and trashing the man professionally come across as petty at best, desperate at worst. The Senator should take a page out of Ron Wyden's playbook, take the pledge not to go negative, and publicly ask her surrogates to do the same.
9:37 p.m.
Jan 16, '12
Let's also remember the shenanigans that Bob Moore pulled in 2010. He presented himself to the Bend Bulletin as a disinterested observer of the Huffman/Wyden race, failing to disclose that he had done polling work for Jim Huffman. The Bulletin ended up running a correction. Even then, he pooh-poohed things, saying Huffman had merely paid for a few questions on another poll.
But here at BlueOregon, I was able to reveal an email exchange he'd had with Wyden's pollster acknowledging his role as Huffman's pollster.
And let's not even talk about the New Hampshire investigation into push-polling in the 2008 presidential race.
11:59 p.m.
Jan 16, '12
I worked in Moore's survey shop for almost a year. He's more then a little right-leaning.
...I still have nightmares about the Iran Nukes push-poll we did...
11:19 p.m.
Jan 16, '12
Doesn't "essentially tied outside of Multnomah County" mean essentially a landslide for the non-republican candidate?
6:46 a.m.
Jan 17, '12
So now we've reached the point where it isn't enough for partisans to trash the opponent, they have to trash the opponent's pollster as well.
I'm not complaining. In fact, I'd much rather have you reassure your readers that Bonamici has a safe lead and they needn't worry rather than use this sotry to motivate your readers to work harder because the race is tightening up.
10:53 a.m.
Jan 17, '12
Jack, are any of the issues that Carla brought up false?
11:42 a.m.
Jan 17, '12
Democrats win because they are more organized and do work harder.
4:40 p.m.
Jan 17, '12
Aha. A thought experiment for you, Jack.
You are hanging out with three other friends. You are talking, not doing much, looking out the back yard and enjoying the day. Suddenly one of you notice a bunny has gotten past the fence and is munching on your lawn. Then, one of your other friends notice a hawk circling overhead. "Bet that hawk gets that rabbit." You say. "Nah, that rabbit sees the hawk, it'll run." says one of your friends. Another friend says "I don't think so. He's pretty busy munching." Your final friend says "The governmental mind control rays from the glass cities on the moon will destroy the entire west coast."
...now, is it 'making fun' to point out that your one friend is a little... shall we say... bonkers?
BTW: Despite your claim to the contrary, you are complaining.
7:54 a.m.
Jan 17, '12
Jack, I thought you might be following the lead of another of the few moderate Republicans in this state, Dave Frohnmayer, who decided the sensible thing to do is endorse Suzanne Bonamici. Together with Norma Paulus you three are the among the very few in recent decades to actually hold state office in Oregon. Well, and Norma Paulus said there is no one left in your party that she can talk to, so I thought you might be deciding this tea party extremist with a rather dark history of business practices might be too much for you to stomach. Maybe your "moderate" credentials have now been tossed overboard for the sake of being a team player, albeit a marginalized sidelined one.
11:14 a.m.
Jan 17, '12
Suzanne Bonamici, an Oregon state senator and former Federal Trade Commission Lawyer has held a steady lead of around 10% in recent polling. She will go to Congress and return home to defend her seat in November. In a January 5th poll by SurveyUSA Bonamici led by 11%. A different poll in December showed an identical lead of 11%.
The Democratic voter registration margin in the district is about 12%. The district has been Democratic since Les AuCoin won an open seat in 1974.
Cornilles has attempted to rebrand himself from the Tea Party to a more moderate Republican in this run. However he continues to support most of the hard right positions.
Bonamici has always been a centrist. She's worked to protect consumer rights and her five years of votes in the Oregon Legislature were well reasoned and thoughtful.
With the tone of the Republican presidential primary degenerating to posturing and ugliness I'm guessing "R's" will have a lower voter turnout just because they are weary of distasteful campaigns.