Poll: 75% of OR-1 voters say Wu should resign
Kari Chisholm
KATU has released the result of a poll conducted Monday night by SurveyUSA. The poll surveyed 500 registered voters in the First Congressional District. (I've got a more complete Monday night news roundup here.)
75% said that he should resign. 17% said he should stay in office. 8% were unsure.
68% of Democrats say he should resign, while 82% of Republicans and 80% of NAVs and others say he should resign. Interestingly, there's no gender gap - with 75% of men and 74% of women calling for resignation.
Check out the details at SurveyUSA.
The resignation numbers are up dramatically from a poll in March, also by KATU and SurveyUSA. Back then, it was 46% in favor of resignation. Just 26% of Democrats called for resignation, while 72% of Republicans and 45% of NAVs and others said he should resign.
At conservative magazine Human Events, John Gizzi suggests that 2010 GOP nominee Rob Cornilles might have a shot in a special election:
In a special election in an off-year, however, Cornilles might just fare a bit better—especially if Democrats have a divisive nomination battle.
By contrast, strategist Jim Ross ('06 Kulongoski campaign manager and '10 Bradbury consultant) told Roll Call that the seat is safe for Democrats:
Despite the couple of points the district is expected to lose in Democratic registration next year under the new lines, Ross said the district should be an easy hold for the party with Wu gone.
Roll Call also cites a GOP pollster saying that a special election would favor Republicans.
GOP pollster Greg Strimple said Republicans would be competitive in a special because the “macro political environment still favors Republicans, even in Oregon,” and “the scandal surrounding this will deflate Democratic enthusiasm for the seat.” “It’s not as good as running in the 2nd [district], but it’s a good district for Republicans as far the state of Oregon goes,” Strimple said.
Finally, Roll Call also adds some new names to the potential GOP field:
On the Republican side, insiders said the names floating in GOP circles include businessman Rob Miller, 2010 nominee Rob Cornilles, state Sen. Bruce Starr and state Reps. Shawn Lindsay and Katie Eyre Brewer. Cornilles lost to Wu in a strongly Republican year but would bring instant name identification, while Miller is also seen as a strong contender.
Personally, I think Cornilles probably has close to zero name ID, given how lousy his campaign was last time around.
What do you think? Will Democratic enthusiasm be dampened in a special election? Do the Republicans have a shot at taking the seat for the first time since 1974?
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11:26 p.m.
Jul 25, '11
Full disclosure: My firm built Brad Avakian's campaign website. I speak only for myself.
8:27 a.m.
Jul 26, '11
I think most people knew that someone ran against Wu, but couldn't remember his name. I suppose that's some sort of recognition.
8:28 a.m.
Jul 26, '11
with enough time, Brewer could make a serious run. she's smart, attractive, a strong public speaker, and not a TPers. Lindsay has as much chance as i do; he'll be a one-term Rep in the Leg if the Wash Co Dems can find a good candidates -- like someone who can walk upright and speak full sentences. Starr oozes unpleasantness; after watching him this past session in the Senate, i can't see him appealing to independents. if this becomes a short season race, Avakian has all the advantages -- unless Suzanne Bonamici joins the fray asap.
8:52 a.m.
Jul 26, '11
I cannot talk about the other Republicans, but I think that you give Bruce Starr too little respect. He is the guy who got a transportation tax through the legislature after years of failure by others. He is not a flame thrower. I think he would be a strong candidate for the Republicans.
8:40 a.m.
Jul 26, '11
I am hopeful that a qualified Democrat will represent the citizens of the 1st CD. A well organized campaign is already underway with Jon and Josh at the helm of Brad's campaign.
11:27 p.m.
Jul 26, '11
Jon and Jake, not Josh.
11:04 a.m.
Jul 26, '11
http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/07/26/wu.resigns/
1:15 p.m.
Jul 26, '11
WOW 75%, I don't remember ever seeing that kind of agreement across the spectrum. Finally Ds, Rs, and NAVs unite over a common issue. If only we could achieve that kind of consensus on critical national and state issues.
3:31 p.m.
Jul 26, '11
Word to the wise: molesting your friend's 18 year old daughter at Thanksgiving will NOT be tolerated.
His 18 year old son is still fair game if you're the Mayor of Portland.
4:32 p.m.
Jul 27, '11
Huh... what?
Last I looked 18 was the age of consent. And last I heard, Breedlove (sp?) was into Adams and the contact was fully welcome.
So, if it's consensual, and both of of age, then the only issue you must have is that it's icky gay stuff, Mr. Anderholt.
9:27 p.m.
Jul 27, '11
18 year olds are emotionally immature especially when they are relating to a big city Mayor or a Member of Congress.
Legal or consensual isn't the question. Neither is the fact they're gay. Your straw man argument is powerless here.
Was it appropriate for a 42 year old to have sex with an 18 year old given the imbalance of power and life experience? Clearly, it was NOT appropriate, which is why Sam Adams chose to lie.
Was it appropriate for Sam to paint his accuser (Bob Ball) as a homophobe and a liar when Sam was, in fact, the one who was lying?
Again, the answer is no.
Especially if you can see the irony of Sam perpetrating the very stereotype that has been an obstacle to achieving parity with heterosexuals (i.e. older gay men are constantly seeking out younger men to recruit and/or seduce). The same stereotype that Sam indignantly denied even existed except in the eyes of homophobes.
Sam wrapped himself in the homophobic hysteria defense, and said ANOTHER GAY MAN was lying and perpetrating this damaging homophobic stereotype while Sam was merely mentoring a young man who needed a good role model.
Which brings us to the nexus with David Wu: our political leaders should be held to a higher standard than "not indicted". Sam Adams lied, repeatedly and with malice, to further his political aspirations. That will catch up to him sooner or later.