Poll reveals trouble for David Wu, plus a look ahead to 2012
Kari Chisholm
I've resisted blogging about the electoral prospects of Congressman David Wu - mostly because it seems a bit unseemly to publicly muse about elections when questions are being raised about someone's health.
But, now that it appears quite clear - at least to me - that Congressman Wu is healthy and hale, and since he's been talking about re-election, let's dive in to 2012.
First, today's news. A poll released today by KATU and conducted by SurveyUSA finds troubling news for Wu. It seems that 46% of voters think he should resign (against 42% who say no), including 26% of Democrats (against 60% who say no.)
And let's be clear: any poll, about any politician, is probably going to show around 30 to 35% support for outright resignation. That's just the kind of political world we live in today. So, this poll result doesn't seem particularly notable to me.
When asked whom they voted for in 2010, respondents say 52-38 for Wu (actual vote 54-42). Asked how they would vote today, it's 41-33 for Cornilles. In other words, 19% say that they voted for Wu and wouldn't again today.
Among Democrats, the numbers are better, but still troubling. 7% of Democrats say today that they voted for Cornilles last year, and that number is up to 13% now.
The poll doesn't address the question of a generic Republican, rather than Rob Cornilles (who was a relatively lackluster candidate with a tedious and dull campaign), which might be even higher. It's these matchup numbers that are a bit concerning.
I suggest diving in to the details on the poll - since it has some interesting questions related to whether Wu has been forthcoming enough (or too much), the public's right to know versus privacy, etc. Full crosstabs here.
As for looking ahead to 2012, on the jump, I've got a complete list of everyone I've heard mentioned as possible Democratic candidates for Oregon-1, either in a primary challenge to Wu or for an open seat.
Now, keep in mind: I'm not suggesting that any of these folks WILL run -- or that they SHOULD run. Merely that among the large circle of political junkies that we call the "chattering class" (let me put in a plug here for Jesse Cornett's pub, where it seems that the chattering class has decided to roost when not at Magoo's in Salem), this is who they think MIGHT run:
In alphabetical order:
- Brad Avakian, labor commissioner
- Suzanne Bonamici, state senator
- Ginny Burdick, state senator
- Ryan Deckert, former state senator & Oregon Business Association president
- Richard Devlin, state senator
- Rob Drake, former mayor of Beaverton
- Joan Dukes, former state senator, former Clatsop County commissioner, and NW Power Planning Council member
- Nick Fish, Portland city commissioner
- Larry Galizio, former state representative & Clatsop Community College president
- Chris Garrett, state representative
- Kathryn Harrington, Metro councilor
- Mark Hass, state senator
- Betsy Johnson, state senator
- John Kroger, attorney general
- Greg Macpherson, former state representative and LCDC commissioner
- Lisa Naito, former state representative and former Multnomah County Commissioner
- Mary Nolan, state representative
- Steve Novick, activist and '08 U.S. Senate candidate
- Tobias Read, state representative
- Charlie Ringo, former state senator
- Susan Sokol Blosser, winemaker and 2010 candidate for state representative
- Desari Strader, former Washington County Commissioner
- Brad Witt, state representative
(And yes, I'm aware that a handful of these folks live just outside the current district lines. The lines will be redrawn before the 2012 election gets underway.)
What do you think? Who would you like to see run? Is there a candidate or two or three that jump out at you? If there is a primary race, which of these folks would you support ahead of Wu (if any) - and which would you rank behind Wu (if any)? How do you rank Wu's chances in a primary campaign?
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4:43 p.m.
Mar 8, '11
Not to mention, oddly, a person can run for a congressional district without residing in the district (though it is probably bad strategically).
6:50 p.m.
Mar 8, '11
Remember when?
"Late last week, SurveyUSA released a poll done for KATU that showed Scott Bruun leading 51 to 41 percent. The poll was done October 17-19, with a 4.1% margin of error."
http://www.blueoregon.com/2010/10/or-5-inexplicable-polling-schrader-down-10-or-12/
8:03 p.m.
Mar 8, '11
I am impressed by the overall quality on this list. Almost all would be great candidates.
5:30 a.m.
Mar 9, '11
The poll should have asked, do you think he should run for re-election? That would be a more relevant picture for Democrats, especially considering those low confidence numbers. Silly to ask D's whether they prefer Cornelius to Wu, better to ask if they prefer any other Democrat to Wu. And with this deep list of potential candidates above I think a majority of Democrats would be ready to consider a change.
Especially glad to see some women on that list- would be nice if one of our five was female again.
9:54 a.m.
Mar 9, '11
I could easily see Avakian or Bonamici being very strong candidates and a good fit for the district. Galizio perhaps as well. A couple of those other listed are highly unlikely, nor a good match for the district IMNSHO.
10:54 a.m.
Mar 9, '11
Kari wrote: "it seems a bit unseemly to publicly muse about elections when questions are being raised about someone's health."
No, it doesn't. .
Kari wrote: "But, now that it appears quite clear - at least to me - that Congressman Wu is healthy and hale.."
Wow.
11:33 a.m.
Mar 9, '11
Regardless of Wu’s health, the perception exists and will likely remain that he is (at best) a satisfactory legislator, skipped over for consideration by his peers for influential positions that could benefit his district and Oregon. My assumption is that Dems will fare well in 2012 because of the district's progressive majority coupled with the presidential election. I'd like to see voters elect in the primary someone more capable than Wu of excelling long-term. I wonder how many constituents in Wu's district are proud he's their representative, despite whatever sympathies he deserves for health troubles.
10:15 p.m.
Mar 9, '11
I would like a woman to represent Oregon in Congress. A progressive one, preferably. And I'm pretty sure I'm not alone. And I bet we wanters of a woman in Congress from Oregon would work together very well to see that through. Of course there are other very important criteria - this one just happens to sit close to the top.