Will lightning strike twice? 15/15 tie in Senate, 30/30 tie in House?!

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

3:13 p.m. The Oregonian may have made a premature call in SD-3. Dotterrer's lead over Bates is now down to just 103 votes. Word on the street is that many of the outstanding ballots are late ballots from Democrat-rich Ashland.

12:25 p.m. The Oregonian has called it in every race, except Schrader/Olsen. By their count, we're definitely at 30/30 in the House. At latest count, Olsen lead Schrader 22,415 to 22,116 - or 299 votes.

10:50 a.m. No changes in any race outcomes yet, but still waiting on the noon update from Multnomah County. In SD-20, Alan Olsen's lead over Martha Schrader has grown to 299 votes. In HD-29, Katie Eyre Brewer's lead over Katie Riley has grown to 995 votes. And in HD-49, Matt Wand's lead has grown to 862 votes.

One note: There's a close race in at least one possible Democratic pickup in the House. In HD-37, Julie Parrish leads Will Rasmussen by a scant 523-vote margin, out of 24,893 cast.

Original post

With lots of votes still left to count, one of the most compelling storylines that's developing is control of the Oregon Legislature.

As the vote count stands now (2:30 a.m.), there's a 15/15 tie in the Oregon Senate and a 30/30 tie in the Oregon House. I haven't done the research, but I'm assuming that a two-chamber tie would be unprecedented - at least in Oregon.

In the Senate, the Democrats opened with an 18-12 majority. Here's the party changes currently underway (all D to R):

In the House, the Democrats opened with a 36-24 majority. Here's the party changes currently underway (also, all D to R):

Note that HD-29 and HD-49 seem very light in terms of the total votes cast. Multnomah and Washington counties have large numbers of outstanding ballots left to count. Will the outcome change as more ballots come in? Very possibly. After all, late voters tend to be Democratic voters - for two reasons. #1, because that's who we are (younger and lower-income) and #2, because we have a field operation that drags those voters in.

I'll keep you posted as this story develops throughout the day on Wednesday and beyond.

By Kari Chisholm
Nov. 03, 2010

  • 7:39 a.m.
    Nov 3, '10
    (Show?)

    This truly is the stunner in this election. Given Kitzhaber's huge Democratic registration edge, and the always available MultCo basement ballot boxes, he will likely pull out a narrow win (though I hope I am wrong).

    Democratic legislative supermajorities earned just two years ago evaporated faster than you can say, "Fire Pelosi!"

    Hanna-Hunt and Courtney-Ferioli as co-speaker/presidents? Who will cross over on the intitial organizational vote?

    Then again, maybe Hunt and/or Courtney don't deserve to keep their jobs since they apparently lost control of their chambers after given a supermajority cushion in 2008.

    •
      7:46 a.m.
      Nov 3, '10
      (Show?)

      This is one of the more absurd comments you've made on this site,Bruce. You want us to believe that voters were thinking primarily of Nancy Pelosi when they were considering their vote for state legislature. Surely you can do better than this. And, if you have evidence of fraud in Multco elections, I suggest you present it to the proper authorities instead of the idiotic insinuation that you know something that you don't.

      •
        7:38 p.m.
        Nov 3, '10
        (Show?)

        Well, Bill, ballots in MultCo begin in the basement before moving upstairs to be counted.

        But of course, those MultCo ballot boxes didn't include my ballot nor my wife's - even they they were personally deposited into a MultCo box one week ago today.

        MultCo says they never received our ballots and Kate Brown's web site only acknowledges a ballot was mailed to me on October 15.

        Of course, that ballot was defective because it had the wrong house race, no senator race nor Metro race. So MultCo had to send out corrected ballots, which they promptly lost when turned in.

        So I will file a deaf-ear complaint with Tim Scott and Kate Brown and predictably be labeled some kind of trouble-making right-wing nut because after all, our family's two lost votes really don't matter in the big scheme of things.

    •
      8:20 a.m.
      Nov 3, '10
      (Show?)

      Sir, I believe all of Oregon voters' ballots go, ummm, not to a basement in "MultCo."

  •
    8:29 a.m.
    Nov 3, '10
    (Show?)

    I admit to finding this part of the election to be the most stunning. The Lindsay-Ainge race is a lot closer than I thought it would be. Yesterday I was hearing that Lindsay would take it in a walk--but not so much.

    I'm also surprised at the Eyre-Brewer/Riley race. I thought Eyre-Brewer had that one sewn up. Guess not.

    I also had no idea that Bates and Schrader were in that much trouble.

  •
    8:33 a.m.
    Nov 3, '10
    (Show?)

    Brent Barton losing is a real shame. I was very impressed by his resume when I looked into who the baby faced kid who was running for State Senator was. Turned out he's not a kid for one thing. How do you say no to Stanford and Harvard Law? I don't get it.

  •
    9:01 a.m.
    Nov 3, '10
    (Show?)

    One meme in the media is how the Democrats had a supermajority and could raise taxes without Republican votes.

    But the three most visible revenue votes - what became Measure 66, what became Measure 67, and the transportation package - all had Republican votes and Democrat(s) voting no. In the first two cases, only one or two Republican yes votes - but enough to overcome a Democrat voting no.

    And yes, it's a true shame to lose Rep. Barton from the legislature. He's been a thoughtful, direct, hard-working legislator, with an infectious sense of humor. Hopefully he'll be back.

  •
    9:05 a.m.
    Nov 3, '10
    (Show?)

    It's THIS state of affairs that, to be blunt, is going to need the most discussion and plain reality check, in terms of priorities and strategies as we move forward. There is a long list of decisions made and priorities set that have led to the possibility of a conservative majority in the legislature that didn't need to happen. At the least, actually making any progress and getting anything of substance done, will prove to be more difficult.

  •
    10:08 a.m.
    Nov 3, '10
    (Show?)

    Full disclosure: My firm built campaign websites for Brent Barton, Martha Schrader, and Nick Kahl. I speak only for myself.

  •
    2:43 p.m.
    Nov 3, '10
    (Show?)

    Looks like the Oregonian called some races a little too early. Sen. Bates is within 103 votes @ 2pm and they are still counting. The momentum is there, keep your fingers and toes crossed.

  •
    6:01 p.m.
    Nov 3, '10
    (Show?)

    New Jackson County results have Senator Bates UP by 240 votes.

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