Quick Hits on Election Eve
Kari Chisholm
Here's what's happening:
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Bottom line: It's all about turnout. It's all about getting out the vote. If there's just one thing you do today, take personal responsibility for making sure that everyone you know gets in their ballot. Don't assume anyone is getting theirs in.
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If you want to check to make sure your ballot is in -- or check on a friend's ballot -- use the Secretary of State's site to look up your ballot. And if you're still holding on to your ballot, here's where you can find a dropbox for your ballot.
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On Sunday, the Portland Tribune released a poll with Kitzhaber leading Dudley 46 to 43. That's the exact opposite of another Tribune poll just a few days earlier. That echoes an earlier, bigger poll from KATU and SurveyUSA released on Saturday that showed a seven-point lead for Kitzhaber. I'm not sure I buy that poll - and those of who want to see Kitz win shouldn't change our GOTV plan at all - but it's an interesting thing. You see, SurveyUSA usually excludes cell phones from their sample (because they're a robopoll), but this time, they used live callers to call cell phones -- and Kitzhaber had a 15% lead among cellphone-only voters, and just 4% among landline-only voters. That will make for some interesting post-election analysis.
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Nigel Jaquiss at WW reports that Senator Richard Devlin is on pace to spend a cool $1 million in his re-election campaign - although he notes, in an update, that some $300k of that is for donations to other candidates and the caucus.
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As I mentioned last week, Jim Huffman's got some curious campaign transactions. In short, he's loaned $1.35 million to his campaign. The problem? According to disclosure filings, he doesn't have $1.35 million. And now, the DPO has filed an FEC complaint demanding that he come clean.
From the complaint, according to WW:
It is simply implausible that Mr. Huffman had enough “personal funds” to loan $1.35 million to Respondent. Consequently, some or all of the $1.35 million in cash loans likely originated from a source other than Mr. Huffiman’s ‘personal funds.’ As a result, Respondent likely accepted – and the actual source of the loans likely made – an illegal contribution in excess of the $2,400 per-election limit.
- And finally, the Mail Tribune reports that a number of law enforcement officials have been accused of violating election laws by campaigning against Measure 74. Complaints have been lodged against the police chiefs of Gold Beach, Brookings, Medford, and Keizer; the Deschutes County sheriff; and several other officers. Of course, there's a fine line between campaigning (which they can't do) and offering their expertise as to the implications of the proposed policy (which they can). We'll see.
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connect with blueoregon
3:18 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Apparently Tim Hibbitts didn't want to be the outlier this election cycle so he reworked his numbers, or possibly his likely voter screen. I happen to think the SUSA poll with the cell phone only households may be the most accurate, as PEW is now saying possibly 1 in 4 households are cell only, and they strongly favor Dem candidates.
4:10 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Re: the M74 complaints, that will be a difficult charge to sustain.
First, the law doesn't apply to an elected sheriff, who is free to campaign for or against anyone or anything - though he cannot direct public employees to do likewise.
But even public employees and bodies can provide "information" about a measure and its effect, as long as it does nto advocate for or against it.
I received a slick campaign mailer from the MultCo library explaining the effects if the local library measure isn't approved.
Did it say explicity, "Vote Yes on 26-114?" Nope. But the implicit message was clear and paid for with public funds.
Re: Election Eve.... while Oregon will remain a decidedly Blue state after Tuesday, at least we will bring an end to the reign of Nancy Pelosi and hopefully, Harry Reid.
8:28 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
I'm going with the 7 point Kitz lead, cells included. I'm glad this is finally being fixed -- gives a false, conservative impression polling only landlines these days. But, this statistical situation sure makes for a great momentum turner!
9:36 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Well if tonights Gallup poll is correct it's going to be an unprecedented red tide across the good old USA- so consultants not to worry- by the time it gets to the West Coast even 45% will look respectable...
11:09 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
If the race were close and two polls came up within the margin of error, you wouldn't be surprised to see them flip by three points.
What I read into this is what Kari does: it's WAY too close to be comfortable. I've watched polls long enough that I know people tend to believe the bias most advantageous to their position--so of course we like the looks of the SurveyUSA poll.
Don't buy it. If you haven't voted, by all means get on the stick.
The SOS's office says my ballot was received 10/27. Cool.
7:13 a.m.
Nov 2, '10
Maybe I am overestimating with thinking Kitz will win by seven or more points but underestimating the impact of this mistake in the surveys would be unwise. I think it guarantees him a win when you include cell phone data. Don't get comfortable, I agree (who ever is comfortable in elections?) but don't lose that momentum either.
6:09 a.m.
Nov 2, '10
It was tough wading through the phalanx of New Black Panther thugs, but I voted.