OR-GOV: Dudley leads for now, but don't panic
Kari Chisholm
4:28 p.m. The 4 p.m. update from Multnomah County gives Kitzhaber 9452 votes and Dudley 4125 votes, for net +5327 for Kitzhaber. Statewide total is 651,517 for Dudley and 646,063 for Kitzhaber. The gap has now closed to 5454 votes. KPTV analyst and pollster Tim Hibbits has called it for Kitzhaber. The Oregonian has also called it for Kitzhaber.
2:09 p.m. The 2 p.m. update from Multnomah County is in. Kitzhaber picked up 6218 votes. Dudley picked up 1638 votes. That's a net +4580 for Kitzhaber. The statewide count now stands at Dudley 646,031; Kitzhaber 635,040. That's a gap of 10,991. There are reportedly some 60,000 votes left to count in Multnomah County - which should translate to a net gain for Kitzhaber of some 20-22 thousand votes.
12:10 p.m.: Well, the noon report from Multnomah County was basically worthless - just a few hundred votes. Unclear what's taking so long. Next update expected at 2 p.m. Maybe with votes this time. Here's where it stands now: Dudley 642,941; Kitzhaber 627,220. That's a 15,721 vote lead.
10:30 a.m.: Things are largely unchanged. Dudley 642,866 to Kitzhaber 627,091. That's a 15,775 vote lead. Multnomah County won't release another report until noon or so. Also, I've been told that Lane County is also lagging the statewide count - so that's more good news.
Original post
As of the 6:20 a.m. update, Chris Dudley has 633,253 votes to John Kitzhaber's 614,818 votes. That's a big lead -- 18345 votes.
But roughly one-third of the remaining votes are in Multnomah County, where John Kitzhaber's been winning 70/30. That's why Kitzhaber was so upbeat and optimistic last night.
As he said, this is exactly what happened two years ago to Jeff Merkley. On election night, Merkley was down - but by late Wednesday, once Multnomah County finished its count, he was up by a solid margin.
It's going to be closer than that this year, but every spreadsheet nerd I talked to last night had roughly the same prediction. Here's what 538's Nate Silver tweeted late last night:
The Oregon governor race is gonna be really close. A county-by-county extrapolation would give it to Kitzhaber by <1 point.
And here's the Oregonian's lead this morning:
The Oregon governor's race between Democrat John Kitzhaber and Republican Chris Dudley remained a cliff-hanger early today, but Kitzhaber appeared to have the edge as vote-counting continued.
Dudley clung to a slim lead, but Kitzhaber was expected to make up the difference as tens of thousands of votes remained to be tallied in Democrat-rich Multnomah County, where he has been getting 70 percent of the vote.
According to an analysis by The Oregonian, Kitzhaber will eke out a win if the trend continues.
So, hang in there, folks. We've got a long way to go. Stay tuned.
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8:48 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
Kari, where is the love for me and Len? We called this last night. I guess once we switch to KGW-2, we just don't count.
10:05 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
Full disclosure: My firm built John Kitzhaber's campaign website. I speak only for myself.
10:24 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
All the votes are in and if Multco numbers hold up, Kitz should win by a couple of thousand votes.
10:28 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
It does look good for Kitzhaber -- extrapolating the current county-level data shows him winning by 0.5-0.9% (depending on whose data you use).
But... I will say that it is somewhat sensitive to the assumption about what % of the estimated votes the current Multnomah tally represents. Oregonian is saying 78%, but if it's really more like 83-85%, Kitzhaber could be in trouble.
I'm feeling pretty good about it though...
10:40 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
My projections on Oregon Governor’s race:
Current raw vote: 636,176 Chris Dudely to 622, 617 John Kitzhaber = 13,559 vote lead for Chris Dudley.
Oregon Elections reported the following this morning: “There are approx 150,000 ballots remaining to be counted statewide. 68k are in Multnomah, 33K in Lane, 13K in Washington & 11K in Jackson.”
Outstanding Ballots in Multnomah County: 68,000
Current Multnomah County Split: 69% for Kitzhaber, 28% for Dudley means est 46,920 votes for Kitzhaber and est 19,040 for Dudley
Current Outstanding Ballots in Lane County: 33,000
Lane County Split: 56% Kitzhaber to 40% Dudley means est 18,480 for Kitzhaber and 13,200 for Dudley
Totals after Multnomah and Lane are done counting: 668, 416 Dudley to 688,017 for Kitzhaber. Kitzhaber will be up by 19,601 votes! WashCo is a push and Jackson County will net Dudley 1,600 votes. I don’t see anywhere else on the map in Dudley counties with large enough outstanding totals to significantly eat into that margin. My prediction is Kitzhaber winds up winning by 15-18K votes.
10:41 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
Politico.com has the best numbers of anyone. They have all the counties reporting at 100%, except for Multnomah. Dudley is up 14.5K, but should get beat by ~25K from what is left in Multnomah. I think we are looking at a Kitz win by ~10K.
By the way, it's kinda sad that politico.com can get better numbers than our own state newspapers.
11:10 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
I'm getting the same numbers as everyone else. Running the same values I did earlier this morning I currently have Kitz pulling in an additional 65,108 votes to Dudley's 47,013. That's enough to overcome Dudley's current 15,000 vote margin and give Kitz a victory of only about 3000 votes!
What is the margin for an automatic recount?
11:16 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
Automatic recount margin is 0.2%. So, maybe around 2,700 votes.
11:14 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
Very tight. Here is my update:
OR Gov update. 110,000 est. remaining votes. 58,000 in MultCo x .70 kitzhaber share = 22,000. Result is an 8k Kitzhaber lead. But 52,000 left. Dudley has to win 57..69% of remainder.
11:43 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
Where are the remaining 52K from?
11:17 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
Chris, I don't know how you can award Kitz 65% plus of the remainder. According to MultCo website, they have only 58,000 more votes to count. I get that by summing the Kitz + Dudley current votes, and using their report of 78% ballots counted.
That means 208259 x (1/.78) = 266571.
266571 - 208259 = 58,000 (approx) MultCo ballots left.
3:12 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
I'm going off the Oregonian web site, which does the estimating of remaining votes for me (so shoot me for being a bit lazy :-).
11:44 a.m.
Nov 3, '10
Paul where are you getting the 110,000 votes left? SOS released this list a little while ago that shows 153,458 left. And Politicos numbers aren't right. This list seems to be the most definitive of what is left out there. http://news.opb.org/article/ballot-counting-stats-secretary-states-office/
12:01 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Those numbers are three hours old. They've been counting all morning.
12:14 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Aiieee, the tension!
1:02 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Yes, I underestimated MultCo turnout, relied on the 70% figure that someone who runs a website campaign company told me last night ...
Looks like 65,000 ballots left = 20000 Kitz margin (assuming that late drop offs reflect a 70% kitz vote).
ARGH my twitter post was wrong!
Dudley needs to win only 55% of the remaining.
===
Jeremy, the match.
I get the 110,000 by looking at the total ballots counted from O Live, multiplying that by (1/(percent counted)) to get an estimate of the total ballots that were cast. OLive currently says 92% counted, so we divide:
(1,270,161) / (.92 ) = 1,380,609.
1,380,609 - 1,270,161 = 110,500.
110,500 - 65,000 MultCo = 45,500 non MultCo.
Ok. Dudley margin currently 15,700.
Kitz picks up 65000-(65000 * .70) = 19,500.
Margin now 19,500-15,700=3800.
In order for Dudley to win, he has to win enough of the remaining 45,500 votes to make up a margin of 3800, which I calculate to be just over 54%.
), then taking the difference. Thats my best estimate of the total ballots outstanding.
I subtract the MultCo total (65,000) to get the estimate of total ballots not in MultCo (45,000). Then do the math to see what margin Dudley would need to make up a
I have not looked county by county, I leave that to the campaign experts with people in each county.
1:09 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Dudley only needs 34% of the Multnomah County vote to win. Heard it from the grapevine. What if Dudley wins! Will all the Democrats go to China or what?
1:48 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Well, he only has 28% right now, so 34% would be a bit of a stretch. I think what matters more is exactly how many ballots remain to be counted in Mult Co & Lane Co. -- I've seen a bunch of different numbers here.
1:17 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Another update: looks like Lane is also reporting 78% of ballots counted.
Means 30,586 in Lane, and Kitz pulling 56% = 3581 additional margin for Kitzhaber out of Lane.
Total margin would therefore be:
19500 (Multco) + 3581 (Lane) - 15,700=7381,
IF all above correct, 45,500 - 30586 = 14,914 remaining ballots.
Dudley needs to win only 1-(7381/14914) = .506 of remaining non Lane and MultCo ballots to win.
What am I missing? The only way this could look better for Kitz is if I am overestimating the number of remaning ballots statewide, any decrease in the 110,000 will increase the proportion of remaining ballots that Dudley needs.
1:29 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
I just looked at Mult. & Lane Co. elections websites and they are showing 100% of the ballots counted (unless I'm looking at something else). Looks like Kitz is still losing from the SOS website. Is it over? (God, Please, NOOOO...)
1:44 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
As I understand it, the "100% Precincts Counted" number reported on the Mult Co elections site means that 100% of precincts have reported some number of ballots, but not all of the votes have been tallied. Definitely not over.
1:40 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
No, that is just a summary report of the ballots counted TO NOW. Note the turnout figure of 51.5% (line 4 of the report).
You have to take those votes and make an estimate of what you think total turnout will be. If you think it will be 70%, for example, then you take the 18.5% difference, and multiply to see how many additional votes Kitzhaber and Dudley will receive.
3:16 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Go to the Multnomah elections results page (http://www.mcelections.org/2010-11/results.shtml). In the upper left corner is a link to Voter Turnout. Click it and it takes you to a page showing Multnomah received ballots from 67% of registered voters.
That's quite a bit higher than 51%.
1:47 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
I guess I'm not understanding where the extra votes will come from... are they sitting in a pile w/o the signatures yet validated (and therefore not counted in the total voters)? Because at least on the Mult. and Lane Co. websites it's saying 100% are counted with turnout calculated (can't remember exactly but both in the mid to upper 60s).
2:04 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
But I hope you're right and I'm being obtuse.
But since ballots must be in by when the polls close on election night (unlike WA state where they just have to be post marked) where are the extra votes (that you say haven't been counted) coming from?
5:29 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
The fact that a ballot has been turned in and the signature verified does not mean that it has been counted. It is a two-step process.
1) Verify the signature 2) Process the ballot.
So ballots counted lags ballots received for a period of several hours at the end of an election.
Currently (5:15 on 11/3), Multnomah County shows around 280,000 ballots received, but only 235,000 ballots counted and they appear to be counting around 5,000 ballots per hour.
2:10 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Actually the best site I've been using to track the Multco and total numbers is CNN. At least for Multco it is giving the percent not counted. Right now the total statewide is a 10 thousand margin. With an estimated 10% to go, coming from Multco and Lane, things are looking good for Kitz.
2:12 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Betsy Hammond of the O smacked me down. The 19,500 is Dudley's total MultCo vote, not the gap (and in fact Dudley is only polling at 28% in MultCo).
Kitzhaber gains 27,300 add'l MultCo vote + 3500 (approximately) Lane votes = 30,800 more votes.
Take away Dudley;s current margin and Dudley would have to win more than 100% of the estimated remaining share of the votes.
Kitzhaber wins.
3:47 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Thanks, Paul. I appreciate your updates and analysis of this.
2:19 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Carol
Up to 25% of the ballots are delivered by voters to the county office on election day. All those ballots need to be sorted by precinct, the envelope signatures verified, envelopes opened, ballots separated from envelopes, ballots inspected for stray marks, and finally run through the machines.
That takes time for 95,000 ballots.
The report you are seeing includes 100% of the ballots CURRENTLY counted. There are more sitting in a box waiting to be run. Each report shows 100% of the ballots to that point. I guess the 100% is somewhat misleading but it is just a summary measure of the total ballots that were run through the scanner.
2:29 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
When all is said and done, this election will be decided by the people we encouraged to vote in the final hours. Phone-banking to the very end helps win elections. Be sure to thank and congratulate young Dems for making the difference! I know several 20-somethings who dropped off ballots in the final hours. Thank you. Thank You.
5:28 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
I heard that Multnomah County brought in 100K ballots the last day!
2:51 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Paul - ive been wondering that about your numbers. Also JK well have more votes out of Lane County than your est 3,500 net. Kitz is pulling 56% but Dudley is only pulling 40%. That means a +4900 vote out of Lane for JK.
4:01 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
4 PM update on Multco numbers shows the margin is now reduced to 4,235 and shrinking fast. Next update at 6 PM.
4:37 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Fox12 and The Oregonian are now projecting Kitz as the inevitable winner.
4:33 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Breaking- The O projects John Kitzhaber to win!
5:19 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
A repeat of 2006. Kulo was trailing in the vote count then when the media called it for him. The trends were in his favor as well.
It just took a little longer with Kitz.
5:29 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Any word on Stacey? Any hopes of him pulling it out?
6:15 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
As of 5:53 MC returns, it looks like Kitz has finally overhauled Duds....
6:17 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
More good news: Dr. Bates wins by 200 votes.
7:32 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Dudley conceded. Game's over.
9:10 p.m.
Nov 3, '10
Dudley concedes: http://www.katu.com/news/politics/106632218.html?