Chris Dudley has trouble with numbers
Kari Chisholm
Saturday night, when nearly every Oregonian watching television was watching the Ducks ascend to the #1 BCS ranking by beating up on my beloved Trojans, Chris Dudley was on KGW's Straight Talk. Let there be no doubt - his team has some political masterminds on it. After all, if you want no one to watch your candidate, put him up against the UO/USC game.
And so, since you didn't see it, let me share a three-minute clip. It's really quite stunning. Stunningly bad. Chris Dudley is asked two basic questions about the core of his economic program: "How much money will [your tax cut] take out of the budget?" and "How many jobs will it create?"
And he was completely unable to answer either question, even with his own team's estimate, forecast, or guess. After stumbling his way through a couple of stories, KGW host Laural Porter pressed once more on the jobs:
Porter: But you can't give me any specifics on the jobs? How many?
Dudley: You want to know the exact -
Porter: Ballpark?
Dudley: - the exact amount of numbers, I could make, we could make guesses at it but that's the -
Porter: Well give me a guess.
Dudley: Well I - I don't know what the exact number would be.
You know, it's one thing if the guy has his own numbers - or has numbers based on rosy assumptions - or has David Stockman's magic asterisk... but to not have any numbers at all?
He goes on and on about his 18-point plan for jobs -- but can't say how much it'll cost, or how many jobs it'll create? Can't even hazard a guess?
And he's supposedly a financial investment genius?
You can watch Dudley's entire Straight Talk appearance at KGW.com. (And Kitzhaber's, a week ago, is here.)
 |
More Recent Posts | |
Albert Kaufman |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
Kari Chisholm |
Final pre-census estimate: Oregon's getting a sixth congressional seat |
Albert Kaufman |
Polluted by Money - How corporate cash corrupted one of the greenest states in America |
Guest Column |
|
Albert Kaufman |
Our Democrat Representatives in Action - What's on your wish list? |
Kari Chisholm |
|
Guest Column |
|
Kari Chisholm |
|
connect with blueoregon
2:28 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
Full disclosure: My firm built John Kitzhaber's campaign website. I speak only for myself.
9:49 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
So, with too little time to make a difference, but before the final numbers, any thoughts on why such a bad candidate is doing so well? And is the Kitz gen. election campaign the one they had planned all along, or did things change?
5:05 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
The Kitzhaber rope-a-dope will go down in history in part because this guy blew so much cash trying to take over the Beaver State.
6:11 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
It's the vague-a-bond express!
7:13 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
Faith-based budgeting.
7:41 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
We know who benefits from a reduction of capital gains taxes and it isn't the average middle class Jill or Jack. Dudley's plan does not directly address the creation of jobs.
His comments fall into the category of wishful thinking.
7:50 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
Republicans are unable to come up with any empirical evidence that their trickle-down tax policy creates jobs, but continue to push the failed doctrine anyway.
I call it faith-based economics.
8:05 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
Back in 1980 GHWB campaigning against this trickle down economics of Reagan correctly called it "voodoo economics." It's based on magical thinking that tax cuts for wealthy people will bring in the revenues to keep the ship of state afloat. Sen. Howard Baker called it a "riverboat gamble." Thus began the age of massive GOP deficits. We can't do deficit spending in Oregon so Dudley's "voodoo economics" is simply magical thinking that, if enacted, would necessitate a total collapse of essential services in Oregon, starting with education. That's why he is mumbling to himself and can't answer the questions.
8:35 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Excellent reminders, Bill!
GB I should write an autobiography: "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Voodoo." It certainly served the Bush Dynasty quite well!
I've also always thought that most of the actual thinkers in the GOP know it is voodoo AND that it would, as you say, "necessitate a total collapse of essential services." That's the Grover Norquist, "drown it in the bathtub" wing of the party. Not a dumb bunch, just not very honest.
I sense that Dudley's pulled between the two wings of the GOP (the idiots and the liars)--he's smart enough to know it doesn't really add up, but too dumb to hide it well.
8:17 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
Wow, this guy is pathetic! He responds to every question with, "How dare you ask me any substantive questions? Let me ignore your questions and complain about everyone else." Dudley seems to think that by proving everyone else is stupid, his lunacy somehow achieves merit.
11:24 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
He's petulant. All the time. It really seems like he is annoyed that there isn't a coronation for him instead of a grilling.
8:18 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
The truth is that Oregon does have a high capital gains tax and a limited number of individuals do what Dudley says and move across the river before they sell a business. This has been true for decades and was true during the 90's when the state was flooded with cap gains.
However, the impact is on tax collections and any connection with jobs is second order. The business doesn't move across the border, just the owner, who then sells the business to someone else and the business typically stays in Oregon. Even the examples Dudley uses of businesses waiting to invest are related to the overall customer demand and the economy, not the cap gains tax rate.
8:53 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
Bingo
8:38 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Spot on, but I doubt most people who think Dudley is the right choice for Governor would have any idea what the heck you're talking about!
9:46 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
Another curious thing about this clip is Dudley's affect. He wouldn't let Laurel Porter complete a single sentence. And, at least based on this clip, it certainly didn't look adversarial. I get that you want to look prepared and competent (which, as this post points out, may not have panned out), but he looked like he had maybe a few too many espressos before the interview.
To his points: isn't what he's describing identical to the trickle-down economics he claims to eschew?
5:15 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Jeff, the whole thing was like this. Laural is half his size, but she kept walloping on him relentlessly. he'd try to avoid a real answer & she kept hammering. i swear she was channeling Mike Wallace. i'm sure Duds excepted her to be a cupcake, but she was frosted with TNT. it was almost as fun as the Ducks evisceration of SC.
9:51 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
What happened that got Duds past Alley in the primary?
10:26 a.m.
Nov 1, '10
Allen had trouble raising money and he is not as charismatic (tall) as Dudley. I will give Dudley his due; he is a great fund raiser.
4:49 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Alley bested Duds in debates. He actually knows something. The main problem with Republican candidates is Republican primary voters. The voted for the fresh face this time even though it's an empty suit. I guess they thought this time they would go for the corporate celebrity shill instead of the raw meat fundamentalist ideologue. It hasn't worn well.
8:41 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Bill, you pretty much summed up the choices for Republican primary voters. Preview of 2012? Palin vs. Whomever?
12:51 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
2:44 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
If this were Nebraska or Oklahoma, Chip Kelly would be a shoo-in for a future term as governor. Or whatever other elected office he chose to run for. (Of course, if this were either of those states, Kelly would likely be GOP, too- I have no idea what his political affiliation is).
It's going to be a great Civil War- the #1 team travels to Corvallis!
8:53 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
I will not generalize my experience but I will suggest that as my husband and I sold our shares in an inherited commercial property in CA this year we had to decide what to do with the revenue...
Had the combined capital gains taxes been much less than they were (26%) we probably would have just stashed it in the market. Oregon's tax rate being what it is, we put well over half of our profits into 1031-protected re-investments in Oregon real estate (two rental properties).
Taxes, in addition to funding needed goods and services to each other as part of our social contract, can and should dispose us to constructive use of our incomes and assets.
It's something the Ayn-al Randians don't believe, don't understand, and/or don't care about.
9:17 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Sorry to have muddled the point that I really wanted to make... but Dudley, as a self-styled "wealth strategist" appears to be one of those Randians for whom wealth is not only the primary goal but for whom it is a firewall against having to think about anything more than its proof of their own superiority and importance.
9:08 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
I wonder if Mr. Wealth Management Adviser C. Dudley told his clients to invest in Oregon labor.
Let's keep it simple - the BS is overflowing w/ this guy.
9:39 p.m.
Nov 1, '10
Well if tonight's Gallup poll is correct it's going to be an unprecedented red tide across the good old USA- so consultants not to worry- by the time it gets to the West Coast even 45% will look respectable...
12:10 a.m.
Nov 2, '10
It annoys me to no end that people cannot recognize that Dudley feels worse for the business owner who's "scared" to open a THIRD sandwich shop than he is for the many, many Oregonians who simply just want a job. They want to work for a living, family wage but I know too many who will take any job at this point to just be able to keep their heads above water. And even then, Dudley thinks they're asking for too much.
Do you think he eats out anymore without looking over his shoulder?