Quick Hits: Six Days Left
Kari Chisholm
Here's what's happening:
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Competing polls in the Governor's race. For KPTV, the Tribune, and OPB, Tim Hibbits says it's Dudley 46, Kitzhaber 43. That includes the leaners. If soft support is left out, it's Dudley 40, Kitzhaber 39. The Kitzhaber campaign released an internal poll that has it Kitzhaber 49, Dudley 45. Update, 1:27 p.m.: There's a new Rasmussen poll out now, with Dudley 49, Kitzhaber 46.
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Meanwhile, in a retort to Chris Dudley's constant name-dropping, NBA Hall of Famer, two-time NBA champion, Olympic gold medalist, presidential candidate, Rhodes Scholar, and U.S. Senator Bill Bradley endorsed John Kitzhaber for Governor. (Dudley is, of course, none of those six things.) Kitzhaber, some of you may recall, was one of the few top-tier politicians in the country to endorse Bradley for President in 2000. (Which, some pointed out, was at least one reason that Al Gore endorsed Bill Bradbury in this year's gubernatorial primary.)
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And while one commentator has decided that this campaign will come down to John Kitzhaber's choice of pants, another is pointing out that ideas coming from John Kitzhaber on the campaign trail are actually influencing how employers rethink their health plans.
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There are, of course, plenty of Democrats and progressives who've argued in the past that Oregon should have a sales tax - to stabilize the tax base and/or raise revenue. I've wondered what some of those folks think of the loud and clear anti-sales-tax argument coming from a number of House Democrats. Now, one prominent Democrat has gone public.
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8:32 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
Okay..the pants thing is just epically stupid.
8:33 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
On the polls, Hibbitts has been a good instate pollster in the past, but I don't find it credible that without being pushed there are 20% undecided less than a week before the election. And I don't see where the likely voter screen is in his demographic sample. What are the differences between LVs and RVs? Perhaps most importantly there is no indication of Cell phone only household polling. PEW says that 1/4 of households are Cell only, and Newsweek polling says 1/3 of households are Cell only. At this stage it's all in the GOTV effort and ballot return.
12:17 p.m.
Oct 27, '10
Bill,
In the phone-banking I've been doing, I've encountered an unusually high number of "undecideds" this year, especially in the Gubernatorial race. After doing follow up questions, asking if I can provide more info about the D candidate, I get one of two responses:1)Many don't like either choice and are actually "undecided" not about for whom they plan to vote but whether they plan to vote in that race at all; and 2)"I haven't decided" seems to be the new code phrase for "I know how I'm voting but it's none of your damn business".
I don't know if my experience is common but if so it could explain a high undecided number in a poll.
7:01 a.m.
Oct 28, '10
Mel, if that's the case, I actually have some hope. I remember that it was like this in 1992, when a fellow campaign staffer on the campaign I was working on looked at me and said "Joyce, I think our phone polls are wrong. People are lying to us about their vote preference."
And then I went poll-watching (pre-mail-in ballots) and was totally astounded by the prospects of lines--lines! at the polling places.
Of course, that was the Clinton general election. This is a mid-term election.
8:58 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
On GOTV I have to say I'm pretty impressed with the Dem. effort this election. We've had three in person canvassers and a follow-up tel. call from one, all GOTV campaign. Since we've voted we aren't getting any more tel. calls or home visits.
9:22 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
If the Republican strategy is to sell Dudley to Democrats in order to get cross-over votes, better check on your friends and family and make sure they understand this is not a choice between two Dems. No Dem would attack the minimum wage or have the views on choice that Dudley has.
9:29 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
Now I know some of you will start screaming after reading this, but let me tell you it's not my idea. I just heard it yesterday from a government official on tax reform in Oregon:
This person believes the tax reductions promote business, provide relief to middle-income families, and raises enough revenue through the sales tax to not only make up the difference of the tax breaks, but also create enough revenue to sustain critical services.
Like I said, bash the idea all you want, but don't take it out on me. It wasn't my idea! :)
10:13 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
Not gonna happen. especially here in Oregon.
10:29 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
I would entertain that idea. Of course, I am willing to look at any idea to stimulate the economy of this state.
10:11 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
Full disclosure: My firm built John Kitzhaber's campaign website. I speak only for myself.
10:44 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
I agree with you, Bill. But I do believe a sales tax would have more of a chance of passing if income and property taxes were reduced. That's the only way it will ever happen.
11:59 a.m.
Oct 27, '10
Perhaps the case would be made but would a sales tax really end property tax and reduce income tax?
9:49 p.m.
Oct 28, '10
Probably not, and that is what many believe is the major obstacle to passing a sales tax. It comes down to trust that the other major taxes (property and income) would be significantly reduced and/or eliminated.
I am infavor of a sales tax exempting basic food, energy and housing and a significantly reduced income tax. The income tax would have a minimum credit for those at/below poverty level.
1:04 p.m.
Oct 27, '10
If you ask Portland pollster Adam Davis I believe he'll tell you that Oregonians don't believe that politicians would "reduce" other tax rates and keep them down in return for a sales tax.
Eliminating one of those other taxes is a possibility, but simply reducing them won't be trusted.
2:27 p.m.
Oct 27, '10
Please note, that was exactly the gist of a tax reform measure introduced by Sal Esquivel and a few others last year that died in committee, and that his opponent this year has tried to beat him to death with (earning a "pants on fire" Politifact rating for part of it). Funny how an "idea" is treated wholly, 180 degrees, night and day differently depending on who suggests it. Am I wrong?
12:35 p.m.
Oct 27, '10
It could, in my opinion. But I don't believe the political will exists to make it happen. I think the other problem is the initiative process. Even if the legislature made the bold step of doing something like this, I'm sure it would end up being referred to voters and overturned.
12:59 p.m.
Oct 27, '10
Jason Carr, How is it that eliminating the corporate income tax while at the same time instituting a 5% flat sales tax is supposed to help middle-class (or working class or poor) people?
I think most people would come up losers in that they'd be paying more money in state taxes. Therefore, most people would have less disposable income.
Elimination of the corporate income tax, just as Dudley's idea to reduce capital gains taxes, will not stimulate the economy. That can only be done by increasing demand for products and services. Increasing demand can only be accomplished by increasing disposable income for the majority of people.
1:06 p.m.
Oct 27, '10
Have you ever seen a business hire people when there wasn't demand enough to justify an increase in staff? I haven't.
2:53 p.m.
Oct 27, '10
Here's how the City of Sandy did it.
Impose a nice fat tax on every household and business in town for street improvement. Inform citizens that you will rescind said tax if they vote for a local fuel tax.
Bingo! works like a charm.
2:58 p.m.
Oct 27, '10
I also agree that a sales tax is not tenable unless reductions in property and, especially, the income tax are part of the package. This would require a constitutional amendment.
Here's the problem: the Pyrrhic victory against measure 40 liberals won in Armatta v. Kitzhaber (1998, CC 96C-14060; CA A96736; SC S44995) means that a single referendum can never address this issue. At least two separate ballot measures would be required, one adding a sales tax, one changing the income tax.
Unless it was worded very well, no politician will risk the income tax part passing but the sales tax part being defeated.
5:52 p.m.
Oct 27, '10
Why would we need a constitutional amendment? There's no constitutional prohibition on a sales tax and no constitutional obstacle to reducing either property tax or income tax. For that matter, why would we need a ballot measure at all? The whole thing could be done by the legislature, as long as they have 60% majorities in both houses and the governor's signature.
I don't support a sales tax. But if the legislature decides that's the solution, it won't require a vote of the people to put one in. (Of course, a referral to the ballot by opponents is almost inevitable...)