Quick Hits: Five Days Left
Kari Chisholm
Here's what's happening:
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More Oregonians do it than in just about any other state. We do it at home, in private; we do it public, with our friends; we even do it at school and at work. Watch the video...
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I'm not exactly sure when it became official, but Chris Dudley has now spent more money than any candidate in Oregon history. His avalanche of attack ads -- continuous since June -- is the only thing keeping him in this race. As John Kitzhaber told CNN a couple weeks ago, "It's close because with money you can make a lightweight a heavyweight in politics in America in 2010." The antidote? Donate to Kitzhaber. Volunteer and help get out the vote. for Kitzhaber.
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Jim Huffman has some explaining to do. According to the O's Jeff Mapes, Huffman has now
contributedloaned $1.35 million to his campaign. Which is interesting, because he doesn't have $1.35 million. His biggest asset is a retirement fund valued between $500k and $1m. And he hasn't reported a mortgage on his home. His wife is worth over $7.5 million, but those assets are only hers - and she's limited to a $2400 donation. The law professor asserts that his actions are "strictly legal" but wouldn't provide any details.
And here's a more interesting question: Given that the NYT's Nate Silver gives Huffman a 0% chance of victory, what's Huffman thinking? Doesn't this call into question his judgment? If not his sanity? (Or has he been seduced by the siren song of "building his name ID for the future". I've seen many a candidate bewildered by poll numbers just two years after a well-funded campaign that show name ID bouncing along near zero. For losers, name ID fades. Fast.) Update: Here's a KGW story about the issue:
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Looks like some Republican governors are heading to Oregon to campaign for Chris Dudley. Namely, New Jersey's Chris Christie and Mississippi's Gov. Haley Barbour. I don't get it. At a time when Dudley is trying to win over Democrats with his TV ads, he's bringing into town an ethically-challenged Karl Rove stooge and a retrograde conservative and neo-Confederate racist?
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Fascinating. Jim Francesconi has come out in favor of voter-owned elections.
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Also fascinating. Former Portland mayor and police chief Tom Potter has come out in favor of Measure 74 - the measure to create and regulate medical marijuana dispensaries.
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Governor Ted Kulongoski is in Israel on a trade mission, working to push Oregon exports and bring Israeli renewable energy projects to Oregon. Personally, I hope he meets with Shai Agassi - who has a brilliant plan to rapidly make electric cars feasible. (The plan? Forget charging stations that take hours. Instead, set up service stations that would swap out your battery in under five minutes. Basically, an electric fill-up. Simple and yet genius.)
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One of the latest Chris Dudley campaign ads (it's so hard to keep track of them all!) has been rated by Politifact Oregon. Their verdict? Pants On Fire False.
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11:51 a.m.
Oct 28, '10
Full disclosure: My firm built John Kitzhaber's and Ron Wyden's campaign website. I speak only for myself.
12:01 p.m.
Oct 28, '10
Last week a favorable generic poll for Dems came out from Newsweek. The big difference, polling cell phone only households, which PEW reports are now at least 1 in 4 American households. Now another generic poll from McClatchy/Marist -D46-R46 LVs and D47-R41 RVs Dems even on LVs and up by 6 on RVs. Good news if it holds. Seems to possibly be supported by early turnout states.
12:02 p.m.
Oct 28, '10
Link on the McClatchy/Marist poll: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/10/28/democrats_catch_republicans_in_generic_ballot.html#disqus_thread
12:02 p.m.
Oct 28, '10
The brilliant plan on electric cars might work in a place like Israel or Hawaii, but not in Oregon. To get swappable batteries they have to be on the smallish side or they are not very swapable. This means either very small cars or very limited range or both.
7:48 p.m.
Oct 28, '10
Wow, I think the swappable battery idea is brilliant! It would force standardization on sizes, output and composition.
Basically any factory left operating that has electric forklifts has been doing this for years. I find this a positive development.
12:05 p.m.
Oct 28, '10
I hope that after the election, someone forces Huffman to come clean. There are a lot of seemingly illegal financing activities by Republican candidates that should be looked at.
1:23 p.m.
Oct 28, '10
Kulongoski on a trade mission to Israel, eh?
Well, let's consider what Archbishop Desmond Tutu said about currently trading with Israel:
"Join the growing international movement of economic and cultural boycott of Israel to help send a message that Apartheid must end and that Palestinians deserve equality and freedom. Take a stand and join us in an organizational meeting for future actions to demand that our local supermarkets stop selling Israeli products until true equality is achieved. It worked 30 years ago in South Africa and it can work again today, with your involvement."
There currently is a petition to New Seasons Market to encourage them to stop carrying seven Israeli products: http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/dontbuyapartheid/
And the home site for the international boycott/divestment/sanctions movement: http://bdsmovement.net/
The BDS movement will succeed, eventually, because it has the interests of justice on its side.
Are you listening, Ron Wyden? (I doubt it).
1:54 p.m.
Oct 28, '10
"Given that the NYT's Nate Silver gives Huffman a 0% chance of victory, what's Huffman thinking? Doesn't this call into question his judgment? If not his sanity? "
Have you ever followed bids on eBay? Sometimes people get so emotionally invested in the process and particularly the ego war they just can't stop. They'll pay 10 times what something is worth .... just to win it. Are the gubernatorial offices worth (in dollars) what people are willing to pay for them? Rememember what Maria Cantwell paid for her Senate seat? Maybe it is worth it -- she for one managed to win.
Normal people can't comprehend these things. It takes tremendous ego and courage to run for office.
Sometimes the only thing I think I understand is why so few good people do anymore.
7:51 a.m.
Oct 29, '10
According to our Sec of State Oregon is on track to have the largest midterm voter response ever, 72%. Is anyone tracking the Dem. ballot return relative to the GOP ballot return?
2:51 p.m.
Oct 29, '10
Polls are educated guesses. But under HB 3451, passed in 2009, county elections officials can not only open and separate ballots seven days in advance, but can begin to tally the votes seven days before election day.
This bill was pushed my MultCo, and they confirmed they already are tallying votes.
So what is to deter a county election official from feeding those real-time results to a favorite campaign? Well, there's always ORS 260.705 that prohibits premature release of tally results.
The penalty for violating the law? A maximum civil fine of $250.
Then there is the "security plan" to protect the data - which consists of unplugging the printer and CAT 5 network cable and cover the ports with tape.
10:43 p.m.
Oct 29, '10
Bruce, what would a campaign do with that data? Even if they had it?