Poll: Kitzhaber up by 9 points! (sort of)
Kari Chisholm
Another day, another poll. Yesterday, Public Policy Polling released a poll - sponsored by Daily Kos - that showed John Kitzhaber leading Chris Dudley by 48% to 47% (1229 likely voters, margin of error 2.8%). (And, btw, Ron Wyden leads Jim Huffman by 56% to 40%.
But here's the really interesting tidbit, as noted by Daily Kos's Joan McCarter:
The other, serious, problem Kitzhaber faces in this race is a familiar one--the enthusiasm gap. PPP's Tom Jensen notes that this "is definitely a state where if not for the enthusiasm gap Kitzhaber would be headed for a comfortable victory. 2008 turnout would put him ahead 51-42."
That's right, folks. If the same voters show up in 2010 as showed up in 2008, John Kitzhaber will cruise to victory.
Of course, that's the whole reason that President Obama is rolling into town this afternoon - to raise the profile of the race, and encourage his voters to show up for John Kitzhaber (who endorsed Obama before the Oregon primary.)
But it would seem that the path forward for Kitzhaber supporters is clear. Stop worrying about persuading those last few Dudley diehards you know -- and get about the business of getting out the vote.
Send an email to everyone you know asking them to turn in their ballot. Take a volunteer shift making phone calls (oh, those dreaded phone calls -- but they do work, they do work.) And rain or shine, get some exercise and walk your neighborhood (or a nearby one) and help turn out the vote.
A note for poll junkies: In keeping with their ethic of transparency, Daily Kos has released lots of detailed numbers in this poll -- up to and including the raw survey data.
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12:51 a.m.
Oct 20, '10
Full disclosure: My firm built John Kitzhaber's campaign website. I speak only for myself.
11:42 a.m.
Oct 20, '10
Have to say that when I marked my ballot, I voted for the "D" for gov, not so much for Kitz.
8:41 a.m.
Oct 20, '10
Chris Dudley is running a pretty good ground game, I will admit. The RGA must have got all the Governors tour buses. Now Meg Whitman is riding around California in one. I agree, it's all about GOTV now!
8:51 a.m.
Oct 20, '10
There's a very large Dudley sign at the SW corner of Hall Blvd. & Greenway in Beaverton- unusual in that the sign is on the property of a large apartment complex (sign is nailed to a sweetgum tree on one side and is supported by a stake on the other).
I'm wondering if there was a payment made to the management company- if the Oregon GOP wrote a check in order to have this sign placed? Seems unusual that a property management company would place advocacy signs on the grounds of an apartment complex, unless it had added incentive.
9:00 a.m.
Oct 20, '10
Some smart blogger should mention the ramifications to redistricting, if any, if Dudley wins. I'm not that blogger, but I'd like to read such a post.
9:14 a.m.
Oct 20, '10
thanks for the encouragement, Kari.
10:13 a.m.
Oct 20, '10
Some of the likely voter screens in this season's election seem highly questionable. I also believe that PPP and other pollsters don't account for the higher turnout that mail-in voting brings in Oregon. That said, you're right, Kari. At this stage it's getting Dems to turn in their darn ballot.
11:47 a.m.
Oct 20, '10
Kari,
What do you think is behind the supposed apathy of democratic voters? Or does it really exist at all?
1:30 p.m.
Oct 20, '10
Nate Silver today game him a 66 percent chance of winning...still, we have two weeks left...seriously have to keep pushing.