OR-GOV: Kitz pulls ahead in new Rasmussen poll
Carla Axtman
Well...well...well...
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Kitzhaber earning 48% of the vote, his best showing to date, while Dudley receives 46% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are not sure.
This is the first polling (that I'm aware of) since their televised KGW debate. Perhaps this is why Dudley has been so reticent to show up in front of cameras or microphones to actually talk issues with Kitz. Dudley has clearly taken a hit in the polls with Rasmussen. The previous Rasmussen survey had Dudley at 49% and Kitz at 44%.
This current poll was taken exactly one month from the previous poll. Does this mean Oregonians are coming home to Kitzhaber? In my experience, Rasmussen tends to lean toward Republicans in their polling. I'm not sure we can say definitively yet that Kitz has grabbed the lead. But this is clearly not a good morning over at Team Dudley.
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connect with blueoregon
10:28 a.m.
Oct 11, '10
Can we assume this was also before the big O's endorsement?
Yeah, that's gonna sting!
10:36 a.m.
Oct 11, '10
The poll was taken October 10--yesterday.
10:38 a.m.
Oct 11, '10
GOTV is as important as ever. Maybe more.
10:56 a.m.
Oct 11, '10
Once again, the Rasmussen poll does not accurately reflect how these candidates names will appear on the ballot.
12:13 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
And how do you think that naming Kitzhaber as Democrat, Independent candidate would impact the polling results?
7:58 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
From what I've heard, it will benefit him slightly -- perhaps 2-3 percentage points in the current climate.
11:15 a.m.
Oct 11, '10
Well...well...well...
Rasmussen polls are embraced by Blue Oregon!
11:29 a.m.
Oct 11, '10
Not really. But given Rasmussen's GOP house bias, this is still caveated good news. That said, Rasmussen also has a tendency to come into line with reality in the last couple of weeks of an election so they can tout their "accuracy" come election day, while having previously flooded the zone to help set the narrative in the months prior election.
1:22 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
The fact that Rasmussen tends to trend GOP (as I noted in my post) makes this poll all the more interesting.
Btw, "BlueO" doesn't embrace anything. Each contributor/editor brings their own voice and opinions. Conservatives may be used to being their own borg--but I'm not so big on being part of a "collective".
11:41 a.m.
Oct 11, '10
He is at it again: More tax troubles for Dudley
12:30 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
I'm surprised by this. Rasmussen usually is an outlier by five points leaning GOP. I would like to believe it is true and even more I would like to believe that Kitz is up by more than 2 pts. I surmise the debate and the waitress story hurt Duds the most.
2:47 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
I would also add that voters have had a little time to reflect on the fact that Dudley's "silver bullet" for the economy is that old time religion of tax cuts for people who don't need them, at the price of huge cuts for education, law enforcement, and health care.
Off topic: Who was around on this date here in Western Oregon 48 years ago and remembers how it was?
3:04 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
A little before my time, but I have heard the stories from my mom. She had to dodge flying trash cans on the walk home from work.
3:05 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
Flying trash cans? What happened?
3:08 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Day_Storm_of_1962
3:32 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
Yikes. Thanks for the link.
12:24 p.m.
Oct 12, '10
Finally, I can confirm a statement made on Blue Oregon! Yes, the trash cans were flying that day. Here in Portland our family's metal can and lid "flew" down the driveway and into the street.
Power was out for five days. Of course, back then we didn't celebrate the darkness as a successful lowering of our carbon footprint.
12:48 p.m.
Oct 12, '10
Yeah, because advocating reducing our carbon footprint = power outages. (rolls eyes)
4:23 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
me! i was in Corvallis at the time, my dad in grad school & we lived in student family housing.
3:56 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
I was in H.S. at the time, and living in K. Falls, where we only had a glancing blow. But I was supposed to play football that evening (Fri. nite) and our football stadium blew down.
My uncle, aunt, and cousins lived in Lake Oswego. Streets were impassable from downed trees and powerlines, no power. My cousins, who were little kids, got home from school before the worst hit. They were trapped there alone in the dark for several hours, burglar looters entered the house while the kids hid in the closet. Parents couldn't get home.
A few weeks after the storm, while going down I-5 the damage was visible, many many barns and outbuildings blown down. In summary it was a horrendous storm, a typhoo that came ashore, and winds hit 120 miles an hour in the Willamette Valley where the bulk of the damage happened.
4:18 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
This is a big deal folks. Rasmussen has the biggest and most consistent Republican bias of all the "non-partisan" pollsters. He had Dudley up five just one month ago. That's a seven point swing. I think we can say that the momentum is with Kitzhaber.
Kitzhaber sharpened his team and his message about six weeks ago, and it's breaking through as more and more Oregonians start to really check-in to the Governor's race.
6:11 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
And here I was ready to bet on Kitz to cover. Damn you Rasmussen!
8:03 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
Let's not forget this:
The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points.
8:12 p.m.
Oct 11, '10
Kitzhaber spoke and took questions today at the Washington County Public Affairs Forum. Channel 6 (KOIN) News showed up. Dudley was a no-show and it was explained that he would only attend if questions to be answered were submitted weeks prior - definitely not the Forum tradition.
Guess Dudley's free-throw problems still haunt him.
Another sports metaphor: Kitzhaber hit a couple of home runs today!!