OR-Gov: Cook moves Oregon Governor's race to "tossup"
Carla Axtman
Political prognosticator Charlie Cook has moved the Oregon Governor's race from "leans Democratic" to "tossup".
I'm not a subscriber to Cook's report, so I haven't yet read Cook's analysis because it's behind the subscription wall.
Very not awesome for Team Kitzhaber, certainly. (sigh)
I'm starting to wonder however if Dudley has peaked out..or if he hasn't, if he's close. The press releases from Dudley's campaign are starting to sound especially shrill and nervous. It's an awful lot of protesting/complaining of late over very little and very mild stuff tossed at them by Team Kitzhaber. If Team Kitz actually decides to really go at Dudley, it seems like Team Dudley is ready to go to pieces.
Weird dynamic.
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3:17 p.m.
Sep 2, '10
I have the same impression Carla. It's interesting how this recent ad of Kitz' really seems to have struck a nerve. Suddenly, yesterday, there was a brand-new (and poorly crafted, I might ad) Twitter account (@DudleyHQ) to take on the claims in the ad, while leaving Dudley's private account to remain unsullied, pristine BS. Then the Internet ad this morning from the Dudley camp that looks like it was patched together in haste by a 12 year old. Truly low caliber stuff for a team with so much money to flush.
I'll keep saying what I've been saying: the media is bored with Kitzhaber, but Dudley is an unknown entity to the media and is therefore ripe for being defined. And some of the more recently found information about him is starting to stick, which is why they are panicking and shrill. They've been having a cake walk until now. Keep it up!
5:43 p.m.
Sep 2, '10
The new Ad is effective.
Cook is always behind things. This race has been toss-up since the primary. I would say that Dudley has peaked. Summer polling showed it mostly even. Kitz internal polling shows them up by four or five. I have not seen a current poll by a credible pollster.( And please don''t cite a Survey USA poll. They have been off the mark all election season.) When PPP polls it, or our in-state pollster, Tim Hibbitts polls come out, I will give them some cred.
10:48 p.m.
Sep 2, '10
I know that it drives y;all crazy nuts, but the state superintendent of education race was no fluke. Democrat incumbants are in trouble.
8:42 a.m.
Sep 3, '10
I don't necessarily think you're wrong on that observation, Kurt. There are a lot of Dems in trouble, including Kitzhaber.
But the Dudley Team is clearly concerned about the latest Kitz ad. They're sending out press releases that sound panicky and really shrill. And their latest few campaign emails have reflected that as well.
My sense is that they may have peaked out--and that Cook is a bit behind the curve on rating this race. It was probably more a tossup a few weeks ago...but I think it's leaning back toward Kitz now.
4:08 p.m.
Sep 3, '10
I see, so because Castillo has not been the best superintendent and only squeaked out a win, we should vote for tax cheat with zero experience over a former Governor with a proven record of being an effective executive for the state?
12:22 a.m.
Sep 3, '10
If Dem. incumbents are in universal trouble, why are we headed to re-electing every major Democratic officeholder in this state? I saw a poll today with Schrader with a respectable 8 pt. lead. Wyden, and the Congressional Reps,all headed for re-election. Kitz will be no exception the more the "fresh face" of his opponent is revealed to be an utter zero as governor material. I know you love to be the resident troll, but you're over-reaching with this kind of groundless sniping.
12:24 a.m.
Sep 5, '10
Tax CHEAT?
How did he cheat on his taxes?
Is the IRS coming after him?