Updated: Kevin Mannix cries over failing to get enough signatures
Carla Axtman
Updating the info from Friday's post on the temper tantrum-esque game of dodge ball being played by Kevin Mannix over his failure to get a redistricting initiative on the ballot, it looks like Mannix's epic failure on this one is now official. From Eugene Register Guard political reporter David Steves:
Secretary of State Kate Brown ruled this morning that Kevin Mannix came up with an insufficient number of petition signatures for his proposed initiative to yank redistricting away from the Legislature. The timing is sure to add a little zest to a 1:15 p.m. court hearing, in which Mannix will seek a Marion County judge’s restraining order to keep the measure’s hopes alive.
Mannix's effort to sell this as a conspiracy by the Secretary of State's office to thwart his work for the betterment of all mankind isn't flying either. More from Steves:
(snip)Of the 114,973 signatures accepted for verification, 79.69 percent, or 91,617, were determined to be valid. A proposed constitutional amendment requires 110,358 valid signatures to qualify for the ballot.
That might make this afternoon’s legal proceedings moot; even if Mannix gets to count all 13,000 contested signatures, he’d still come up short of the required total by more than 5,000 signatures.
The cabal of major donors to Mannix's failure cannot be happy. Oh to be a fly on the wall at the conference call where Mannix is forced to explain himself to these people.
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12:39 p.m.
Jul 26, '10
Carla, I'm not sure where Steves got the 13,000 figure -- I suspect there was a self-perpetuating math error.
114-91 is 23, not 13, so it's actually 23,000 that were thrown out, of which approximately 19,000 would have to be accepted in order for the measure to get on the ballot.
As you and others have pointed out, Mannix's real problem is that he just didn't turn in enough signatures. In order for the measure to qualify, they would have had to have had an acceptance rate of 96%. That would be an extraordinarily high acceptance rate. I doubt that has ever happened, but I'm not really a student of ballot-measure signature acceptance rates.
1:19 p.m.
Jul 26, '10
I gather that Mannix only identified 13,000 signatures in his suit, such that he thought he could get them approved instead. The other 10,000 perhaps he agreed were fairly obvious rejections--not being registered, dupes, other serious problems, etc.
I still would like to have Mannix's argument heard and evaluated in principle--but it doesn't appear to have much relevance to the actual suit he's brought. Metaphorically, he's got a fit horse but a dead jockey.
2:39 p.m.
Jul 26, '10
Mark, courts tend to be loathe to hear cases where the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
I think Carla is right on with this one -- Mannix is just blowing smoke to try to cover his ass with his big donors, so they don't tell him to take a hike the next time he comes around asking for money.
3:48 p.m.
Jul 26, '10
I think the 13,000 refers to the number that was originally cited in the Oregonian as having already been rejected, at a time when checking was not finished. They originally turned in almost 126k, but apparently only about 115k were eventually accepted for verification. I think Mannix is disputing the first step, in which whole sheets can be disqualified. Even if he were to win on that point, getting enough valid signatures from the disqualified sheets is probably impossible any way you slice it.