Poll: Dudley Leads by Seven at Halftime
Jeff Alworth
For those of you who thought John Kitzhaber would waltz to Mahonia Hall, guess again. A SurveyUSA poll released Friday gives Republican challenger Chris Dudley a 47%-40% advantage. The poll surveyed 566 likely voters, and there's no reason to doubt that it's an accurate snapshot of where the race is now. Among the more distressing findings, Kitzhaber is trailing substantially among men, older voters, and independents. Worse, Dudley actually has a slight edge in Portland. Have a look:
Men (-14%)
Dudley: 50%
Kitzhaber: 36%Age
18-49, Tied 49+, Kitzhaber -13%Independent Voters (-6%)
Dudley: 41%
Kitzhaber: 35%Region
Portland, Kitzhaber -1% Rest of state, Kitzhaber -18%
More bad news. Kitzhaber is trailing among voters earning more than $50k (-13%), but also among those earning less than $50k (-3%). His numbers are softer among Democrats (+50%) than Dudley's are among Republicans (+66%). Kitzhaber's only bright spots are among Hispanics (+43%) and young voters (+12%).
Lots of caveats can be attached to this poll (see below), but make no mistake. Kitzhaber may win this race--but he's going to have to win it. Dudley is a real candidate, and a real threat.
Polls, of course, are just snapshots. This race has a number of unusual features, and they distort early polling: Kitzhaber is a well-known former 2-term governor, while his opponent is a local celebrity onto whose blank political canvas voters can project generally positive feelings. That will change as Dudley becomes more a political figure and less a former Blazer. In the coming months, people will begin to reappraise Dudley as a candidate. Those high numbers he enjoys in Portland will inevitably come down. Likewise, slippage among Dems and independents seems likely.
It's also true that the poll includes Soloflex founder Jerry Wilson, listing him as the Progressive Party candidate, but no right-leaning third party candidates. In this poll, Wilson collected 6% of the vote, but presumably from far left voters unaware of his unorthodox views like ending all business taxes. It's hard to imagine him getting six percent of the vote in November. Moreover, the Kitzhaber campaign contends, with fair evidence, that the poll oversamples Republicans:
Derek Humphrey, Kitzhaber's campaign manager, questioned whether the sample was skewed toward the Republicans. He noted that 38 percent of respondents identified themselves as Democrats and 35 percent were Republicans. In Oregon, however, Democrats have a 10-point lead in voter registration, 42.5 percent to 32.2 percent.
All polls are weighted to compensate for who the pollsters believe will actually show up. National polling supports the idea that Republicans/conservatives are more motivated right now, so I think this is a reasonable distribution for likely voters--at least for this moment in time. Whether Republicans will still be more motivated in November remains to be seen.
So, the upshot: it's halftime in the election season, and John Kitzhaber is down by seven. The blue team needs to make some adjustments and come out strong in the second half. We've done it before. In 2008, Jeff Merkley was also way behind at this point in the campaign, and in 2006, Ted Kulongoski wasn't exactly overwhelming the red team in his re-election bid. Don't dismiss the results of the poll; instead, use it as motivation to go find out how you can help team Kitzhaber.
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3:30 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
This poll cannot be dismissed as easily as the Rasmussen one was. It seems as though there is a lack of enthusiasm for a third Kitz term.
I know many steadfast liberals who are less than excited this time around.
3:54 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
Exactly right about the deep reservations about Kitzhaber, mainly because he is not progressive enough.
2:13 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
I think the hope is to push Dudley's experience deficit to appeal to liberal Dems.
4:27 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
liberals & "progressives" who can't figure out there's a world of difference between Kitz & Duds had better wake up fast. the state's in the crapper, and we want an amateur who can't answer basic questions apart from cliches to run the state? are you freaking kidding me? we need the candidate who has a clue to be the next governor, even if he fails your test of "progressive" enough (he more than passes mine).
seriously. at a time like this, in the governor's seat - Chris Dudley? are you freaking kidding me?
7:25 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
TA, you sound incredulous but it has happened before. In 1979 a well known businessman, but unknown politician successfully ran for governor of Ky. John Y. Brown (KFC) beat former governor Louie Nunn after mounting a campaign similar to Dudley's as an outsider beholden to no established powerbase within his party. The only difference is Nunn was republican and Brown democrat.
I was there and the people were fed up with the status quo, voting for change of the political mire. so yes, freakin Dudley is a very real possibility. Brown won pulling away as they say in horse racing.
12:56 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
and why exactly do you think the state is in the crapper TA and why would anyone who doesn't share a brain want to cast a vote for 4 more years of life in the crapper with the date who brought us?
2:13 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Seconded.
4:30 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
Rather than suggest, obliquely, that Kitz isn't liberal enough--how about some examples? What policies does he fail to meet the liberal litmus test? My guess is that this is an unexamined bias.
Examples, please.
4:45 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
Serous questions here: Has anyone figured out how to poll cell phones? Are they still not included in these polls? If cells are not included, these polls are much less accurate than they might appear.
6:43 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
Tim, the numbers were dialed randomly, not taken from a phone book; they included cell phones. This is an important methodological point; any firm still using the phone book has some problems. Most use random dialing now.
9:37 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
Thanks Jeff.
11:08 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Jeff- Where did you read that the poll includes cell phones? My understanding is that as SurveyUSA uses robocalling to reach respondents, they cannot call cell phones without an opt-in.
1:33 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
Nick, I stand corrected. You're exactly right. BTW, did you hyper that link with the usual html href code?
1:57 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
Indeed I did.
10:48 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
The 18-35 demo largely uses cell phones exclusively so it is true, they are not being polled. If they were, I'd give the Kitz a like a +5% against his opponent, just as a guess. It could be much higher.
4:48 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Largely, but not exclusively. The assumption is that cellphone users have the same opinions as non-cellphone users. If that's true, then it's simple arithmetic to weight for that.
But, if cellphone users don't correlate to landline users, well, that's another problem.
11:23 a.m.
Jun 17, '10
Good points Kari. I should have thrown in an "almost" exclusively there. Yes, I believe there is a difference in political opinion between cell phones uses (who tend to be younger) and people who use land lines. An image of grandmas comes to mind. I should also clarify my guess that I'd give Kitzhaber a +5%, not over his opponent but in addition to the 40% he was polled at if cell users were polled too. If I were right, that means he is still down 2% against his opponent.
12:38 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
I don't think that is at all accurate. SurveyUSA purchases "random" telephone “samples” from phone list suppliers. Said lists have to comport with opt-in rules in order to be included.
2:14 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Exactly, because it skews towards a group who is still prioritizing land lines- not my group.
5:52 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
Wait a sec....so suddenly we need a seasoned professional politician to solve the state's problems because an amateur just won't cut it?
So is this a reversal of the opinion that Obama's complete dearth of experience shouldn't be a reason not to elect him, right? Or are we holding Oregon to a higher standard than the rest of the nation?
9:22 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Obama served as a State Senator and a US Senator before running for President, and was an attorney, an educator, and involved in public service for years before seeking any office. What is Dudley's relevant experience that qualifies him to run for anything? Listening to him in interviews indicates to me that he has very poor understanding of the issues important to Oregonians, and is unaware of what the job really involves. I also question who his advisers and staff would be if heaven forbid he were elected? Dr Kitzhaber knows many experienced professionals in all segments of public service; who does Dud know besides sports figures and investment industry people?
7:38 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
Our President has no executive experience except his current on-the-job training we are suffering through.
Chris Dudley not only made a living in sports, he has been a successful financial planner for years. In other words, he has made a living in the real world were you have to have results; you can't get by on tenure and seniority.
Being a Senator(non-executive) for 4 years and and "educator" is not the same as having executive experience.
Plus, unlike Kitzhaber, Dudley is a genuinely nice man.
I can understand how it is hard to work up much enthusiasm for stale reruns for you all, though.
10:43 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
"he has been a successful financial planner for years."
<h1>1. That's just four years. Let's not pretend it's been a career just yet.</h1> <h1>2. Please define "successful" and provide evidence for your claim that Dudley has been a successful financial planner for his clients.</h1>12:54 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
In a nutshell Kari, from everything i can tell, Dudley has been succesful at every single thing he has put his mind too. He will also pull votes from Kitz's big labor base by virtue of the fact that dudley was also a succesful union rep for the NBA players assoc
4:50 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
From "everything you can tell". That's nice.
Wealth management is a fairly quantifiable task. Either he beat his peers, or he didn't.
All I'm asking is for some evidence - any evidence at all - that he's been a successful financial manager, if people are going to claim that he's been a successful financial manager.
4:51 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
p.s. "Dudley has been succesful at every single thing he has put his mind too."
Free throws?
2:11 p.m.
Jun 17, '10
Oh, Kari. He just didn't apply himself. If he had "put his mind to" it, he would have been Aaron Brooks.
2:16 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
"Obama's complete dearth of experience"
I'm not sure what to make of this, other than to point out to you that hyperbole (or rather, lack of truthiness) doesn't do much to elevate the level of dialogue here. So, thanks but no thanks?
5:56 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
I see that poll as an indication of just how critical it will be to get everyone involved, engaged and ready to vote this November.
7:08 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
Don't think this particular poll is anti-Kitzhaber though it is telling. Your average Oregon voter prefers the know-nothing Republican candidate over perceived failures of the party in power. Funny how that works, huh?
12:50 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
Oregonians do not perceive him as a "know nothing" and neither has anyone who has ever met him. On the other hand we had 8 yrs of listening to a grizzled old man in jeans ramble incoherently about how Oregon is "ungovernable" let me see ...Ummmm I pick the guy with the degree from Yale!
9:54 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
Yeah, because the Dartmouth grad with an MD from OHSU is clearly a dunderhead.
2:18 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
"and neither has anyone who has ever met him."
Sorry Charlie, I met him at a public forum and I was nonplussed to say the least. The communicative force is...not with him. I've said it before and I'll say it again, this site is the wrong place for unproductive hyperbole.
7:30 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
This is interesting, indeed. Especially given how short on specifics Dudley has been, in general.
If/when Dudley is forced to actually get specific on budgeting, spending, enviro stuff, etc, how that will change things.
Seems like the Kitz folks have some work to do.
7:31 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
I wonder how that will change things, that is.
7:33 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
Turnout is going to be key. Kitz needs to get the base motivated. Hope he doesn't move to the mediocre middle which will of course demotivate the base.
Dudley is a Republican. We have seen the disastrous results of modern day Republicanism. The Kitz campaign needs to clearly connect the nation's problems to Republicanism and define Dudley as a typical run of the mill Republican. "Bush-Republican" is a pretty good frame.
8:59 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
It's possible that there is a comfort level within the base of activists that has been taking for granted that Kitzhaber is a shoe-in. Regardless of if you think he is "progressive" enough or not...
I know I sort of have felt that way. This poll is a wakeup call, for me. Election is pretty much right around the corner...
Turnout, and getting to know the platform and getting that info out there is key. Agreed.
At least the Blazers season is over, so Dudley can't just show up and speak like he did a few months ago - it wasn't really political what he said on the court, but it was a good PR moment for him.
2:22 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Agreed, heartily.
8:32 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
I don't believe SUSA's voter screen for a moment. That said, this is a good place for the election to start. Dudley is a blank slate, and is trying to sell himself in the GE as a "moderate" Republican. Those don't exist. And when he tries to sell his usual GOP program of tax cuts for the wealthy, he is going to have to say what services will be cut to pay for it. With the blank slate now is the time to define him. And for those who fancy themselves as "progressive", a much overused term these days, give some though to the "progressive agenda" when a Repug is running Oregon. The Oregon Health Plan, gone.. Education funding.. gone...state based health care innovation, gone.. Tax equity.. gone...Conservation and environmental agenda... gone. Offshore drilling along the Oregon coast..Dudley is all for that....Drill baby Drill with Dudley. Bring on British Petroleum.
9:35 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Let me take a crack at defining him:
Chris Dudley has the same position on offshore drilling as President Obama!!! Drill baby Drill!!!
9:21 p.m.
Jun 14, '10
Whenever I see a celebrity running for office, I remember when Fred Grandy from the Love Boat was elected to Congress.
I can't help it. In my mind, Chris Dudley = Gopher.
7:38 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
While I too see the humor with Grandy, there are quite a few politicos who once led a life in entertainment. I am sure that had a little to do with their election or appointment:
Recall Jesse V., Ronald R., Arnold, Bill B., Clint E., Fred T., Sonny B., George M., Al F., Shirley T. B., and Jerry S. to name a few.
See if you can recall the last names.
12:20 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
Yeah, I know there are people on my side who started on the screen/stage and ended up in elected office, too. Many others use their celebrity to influence the debate without running for office at all, often in ways that help my side. I just wish we had a better high-visibility launching pad for making public policy than the Love Boat or the basketball court.
1:26 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
It is official. I have woken up from my sweet slumber; I am now losing sleep over this poll. If the Kitz does not return for a 3rd term, I'm going to guess the Democrats will still keep at least a chamber and not be too willing to cooperate with Dudley.
People have put so much work into just one issue that I am aware of, public post-secondary education, and their hopes ride on a Kitzhaber win. Future Oregonians really need this win, the times call for change but change tempered by two terms serving as governor before hand. I mean don't go into a fight you don't know how to win, we are facing billion dollar shortfalls after all and there are only over 3.5 million of us.
2:01 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Here is the poll's methodology:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8138c859-65c9-4575-8e5a-77dda112e9bf
800 voters; 711 of which are registered voters; and 566 of which are likely voters.
Rasmussen is well known for almost exclusively polling "likely voters." It looks like SurveyUSA is following Rasmussen's lead in somehow, magically and randomly finding 566 likely voters out of their 800 total polled. I find this highly suspect in a poll touting unfettered random selection.
Don't worry, these polls mean nothing. Only after Labor Day will the campaigns kick into full gear. By Labor Day the get out the vote effort by the entrenched union interests will really get their interested, voting members out into the polls and more visible.
At this point, those who are being polled are those most dissatisfied with the political status quo. They will be checked post-Labor Day.
7:17 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
That's what I mean, their voter screen is completely flawed. Does anyone here really believe the GOP candidate is winning in Portland?? Still I hope this scares the Dems enough that they get off their fat duffs and keep the barbarians away from the gate.
9:37 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Don't worry, these polls mean nothing
Unless they had said Kitz was up by 7!
12:46 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
he he he ... excellent observation!
2:25 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
They're flimsy because polls this far out from the election are tough, and because they prioritize land lines. Whether they favored either candidate. IT's just the truth.
7:18 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Lowering expectations for a run away victory by Kitz is a good thing. Now is the time to join his campaign and work hard for Kitz. We have 4 1/2 months to go. What have you done to assist his campaign?
7:43 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
I see where I irked some people when I said that Kitzhaber wasn't progressive enough. I thought the point of the article and the first comment was why some of us roll our eyes at him as our candidate." He's not progressive enough! And the guy that wanted to cross examine? Give me an example! OK. One major example is he's more about cuts, than about raising taxes, progressively, to fund proper programs. (One personal dislike is that he gives off an air of patronization, no charisma-but that isn't a policy difference.)
I get it about Dudley. There is no way I would vote for him. But I am mightily unexcited about Kitzhaber, too. The argument is getting stale that the other side is so much worse that we have to move in a frenzy to get a Democrat in.
9:44 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
I am by no means a Kitz expert. However, I tend to agree w/ Theresa, that Kitz at least gives the impression that he's much more about cutting programs than changing our tax structure to fund essential services. This doesn't get left-wingers/progressives/liberals/ the base, etc. excited.
Something that caught my attention during one of the Bradbury/Kitz debates was the way he answered a question relating to ending marijuana prohibition. I think most of us here understand that marijuana prohibition is a very stupid policy which decreases public safety, expands the prison industrial complex, and gives away millions in tax revenue to the black market. This economic crisis even has a number Republicans/Conservatives arguing for ending marijuana prohibition. I have a hard time believing that Kitz thinks prohibition is smart policy but that's basically what his response to the question communicated. Maybe it's the smart political thing to do, I sure don't know.....but ending marijuana prohibition seems like a political winner in Oregon, and we need more leaders to "just say no" to stupid destructive policies like this one. Taking a anti-prohibition position would certainly help motivate the base and even p/u some libertarian votes.
2:29 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
I dunno, I know where you impression is coming from but I feel it is a generational thing. Sure lots of my buddies would think it was cool and whatnot, but a lot of the base that turns out to vote and volunteer consistently (and they skew 35+) is going to realize that marijuana prohibition shouldn't be on the "Short List" of campaign agenda items.
I just don't think he cares all that much, not on that one.
7:49 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
The only thing that has me worried in this poll is that 44% of women support Kithzaber and Dudley.
8:08 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Bill and Ryan, I think you're wrong in dismissing the results of this poll. Of course a pollster can only gauge opinion in real time--it's not predictive and not designed to be predictive. But to think that Dudley isn't attracting serious early support would be unwise.
These results are exactly in line with current polling. Even today, NPR released results of polling showing how dire things are for Dems right now: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127845693
These findings are measuring real voter dissatisfaction. And why not? The economy is still in trouble, the Gulf of Mexico is black with oil, and there are still two wars going on. All of that is going to be brutal on the party in power. It doesn't matter if every one of these are the direct legacy of the Bush administration--voters will still blame Dems. The consequences? 1) the GOP is energized, and 2) Dems are enervated. That's the real, actual mood of the country right now.
Kitzhaber is going to have to win this thing, and the environment isn't great. Obviously, he can beat Chris Dudley--but he's going to have to do it with a lot of help and hard work.
10:47 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Jeff, I can easily dismiss the results of this poll, both on technical grounds (voter screens of "likely voters" fluctuate and are notoriously arbitrary based on perceptions of present political "climate"), and on your global assessment that Dems are doomed because of the BP spill and the economy. So, the Oregon and US voter is suddenly going to determine that the GOP's answer to the Gulf spill of even less regulation and more big oil liability limits is the best? Or that turning social security over to Wall St. is the best? Or that what the Oregon and US economy needs is for more tax breaks for the wealthy and corporate?
Chris Dudley is a fresh face and a sports celebrity, but when Oregonians find out Chris Dudley wants to open Oregon's coast to drilling, to tax his corporate sponsors less, and cut human services and education more, they aren't going to vote for him, even if he can dribble a basketball.
That said, a good scare right now is helpful. And Kitzhaber needs to get out and define Dudley for the nothing that he is, and kick his ass good in a few debates.
1:43 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
Bill, I don't care if you dismiss it or not. But I do care that you understand what a poll can and can't do. It can measure opinion. Surveys with good methodology can select a sample that represents actual voters. It can therefore give you a real-time sense of what voters think. What it can't do is predict what those people will do months from now.
I haven't said Dems are "doomed." I said they're not popular right now. I said they're being blamed for what's happening right now. All the questions you ask ("So, the Oregon and US voter is suddenly...") are questions for pundits, not pollsters. I think it's important to separate the two.
Personally, I've always felt that the Dems will do far better than the pundits and polls suggest. For one thing, voters are going to have to confront actual GOP candidates--always a letdown. Circumstances change, and while Dems get the blame for bad things, they also get the credit for good things. The party out of power has no control. Finally, the GOP is busily splitting itself in half as radicals demand purity tests so far outside the mainstream that these candidates, if they follow the radicals, will emerge unelectable.
Dudley hasn't had to contend with his base yet. At the moment, he's just a former Blazer with a record as a humanitarian and general good guy (two facts I don't doubt). But when his base demands that he champion Arizona-style immigration reform and so on, we'll see how his numbers fare. Either he pisses off that radical base or alienates those male Portland Dems who are currently giving him a look.
2:15 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
I completely agree with Jeff on this. It's important to remember that polls are snapshots of the race as it currently stands. There's no way to predict what's going to happen months from now. While it would be interesting to have seen Dudley's favorables in this poll, I suspect that they are probably artificially high because he is a totally generic candidate right now (and with high name id). And it's almost inevitable that party support for both candidates will shore up by November. But that doesn't mean that SurveyUSA is wrong right now.
Nate Silver thinks very highly of SurveyUSA, and he knows what he's talking about. If anyone actually had real evidence that this poll is skewed, that would be one thing. But so far it just seems like people are refusing to believe that Kitzhaber could be behind in this race.
12:25 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
Regardless of what you may personally think the publics perception of GOP candidates are or have been there is nothing about face time with Chris Dudley that is a let down at all. Dudley is smarter than Kitz in the pure "candle power BTU's" dept. He doesn't have to crawl thru the 'earn respect" curve on most peoples score cards because (politics aside) he has already earned it (try and find someone with anything bad to say abnout the guy) (2) Obama-(1 1/2) and the left (3 1/2) have been running things now for almost 4 years now and they have squandered almost 2 trillion dollars of our money in very dubious and ridiculous ways trying to convince everyone it was the smart thing to do to jump start us out of the financial quagmire they had put us all in ... and to no one's surprise it didn't and hasn't worked. (3) no one but the people here are buying into the idea that everything is Bush's fault...that one won't fool people twice. (4) If you were to get ut of this forum and do some looking around you would quickly discover that a huge majority of oregonians and americans support both AZ and the enforcement of our existing immigration laws..period. Pour some gas (by way of the REAL unemployment numbers in this state on that fire (illegals have stolen jobs that belong to legal residents and Dudley will not only not lose supporters he will actually pull more from kitzhaber. The initial knee jerk propaganda regarding the AZ law has been pretty thoroughl discredited and there are alot of liberals who also understand that this country is great because it is a nation of laws! Not only that but 5th graders are able to see that in order for the host body (the state) to survive financially it needs to liberate itself from the parasites who are sucking it dry. (6) Kitz grand plan of weather proofing windows and doors in order to create jobs was not creative, well thought out, or terribly inciteful and the biggest disadvantage Kitz has to overcome is the 8 year legacy of Kitz! People People People he was NOT a good Governor in spite of some of the good things he may have done. His legacy was neither 'progressive' nor could it be described as a success. CONT'D
12:27 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
CONT'D FROM ABOVE ...SORRY DOUBLE POST
7) While it may have only taken the liberals a very short time to wear out their welcome (and their supermajority) on a national level, Oregonians have had a longer honeymoon period to allow the ether to wear off and more of them are thinking clearly than ever before. Their media manufactured hatred of Bush has faded dramatically and Obama's thick headed race towards socialism has and is killing more jobs than he will ever be able to create, his "I don't care what the people want I am going to do what I want anyway I can do it" attitude that has been the hallmark of his anemic presidency so far has pissed alot of people off in a very big way. He has broken way more campaign promises than he has kept (10:1) and just as importantly he has demonstrated a willingness to allow his people to load his teleprompter with lies so obvious that people with IQ's of 50 know it. His healthcare tax was sold to everyone with nothing but lies bordering on tooth fairy type fantasies. The real impacts of that tax increase and it's effect on small business and additional job losses are just beginning to surface and by november it will all be "out there" (8) with each passing day the two unpopular wars that got so many lefties elected belongs to them more and more and with the troop build up in Afghan. Obama and the left own that war lock stock and barrel.
Outside of this little bubble of optimistic liberalism is a great big unemployed country on it's way back down into the second leg of this double dip recession. Come November it will be easier to sell ice to eskimos than it will be to sell failed liberal ideas in the US or in Oregon...even to Oregonians. Dudley has the star power and the money to hammer those ideas home and with each passing day as things don't get better his ideas are going to start sounding better and better to everyone except you guys who are opposed to him only because he is a republican. Now thats a respectable "progressive" way to choose our leaders isn't it? That's how high schools and jr highs select king and queen of the prom not how a state selects a governor
12:45 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
Dudley has never said he wants to do anything but fix the educational system which is currently on life support and 8 years of Liberal left wing Ted has done nothing to make that any better. The biggest single roadblock democrats have to overcome where ever and whenever they have been in power ....is their record of accomplishments ...how could it be possible for Dudley to have a worse plan for fixing education in this state that would be worse than the legacy of 20 yrs of democrats leading this state would be
2:32 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Totally agree with you. Interestingly, several years hence Kitzhaber is actually dealing with the anti-incumbency backlash as well as partisan backlash. A full mobilization should be in the campaign's future.
9:14 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Kitz, like Gore, is a supercilious wonk, with poorly concealed contempt for those who don't get it. Dudley is a confidently ignorant.
We all know that voters never choose the latter over the former.
9:31 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Interesting poll. I think that some that are leaning Dudley will switch when/if there is an actual debate between the two of them. Kitz may not be the most personable of politicians but he at least understands the state and how things (don't) work. I haven't seen anything that makes me think that Dudley has a clue how to actually govern and that will come out in debates.
12:30 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
That may allow you to sleep better tonight but what oregonians know for sure is that Kitz has already had his chance to bat ...twice and both times he went out swinging at air. Oregonians aren't looking for someone who just knows what the problems are ...they are looking for the guy with the answers. We may not know if Dudley is that guy but we all should know that Kitz clearly isnt
2:34 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Dear, Kitz was stymied by a recalcitrant Republican Congress in the 1990s- so now you know where to direct your grievances.
As usual, bowled over by facts and evidence over here.
3:42 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
"both times he went out swinging at air."
I think you meant "both times he went out swinging at airHEADS."
Because the Republican majority in the legislature at the time was SO open and willing to work with Kitz.
9:40 a.m.
Jun 15, '10
Mike -
."...Recall Jesse V., Ronald R., Arnold, Bill B., Clint E., Fred T., Sonny B., George M., Al F., Shirley T. B., and Jerry S. to name a few.
See if you can recall the last names."
Ventura, Reagan, Terminator, Bradley, Eastwood, Thompson, Bono, Franken, Temple Black, Springer.
You got me on George.
Here's a few more exclusively from the pro and Olympic sports world (and not all were elected)
J.C.W., Lynn S., Steve L., Jim R., Jack K., Byron W., Jim B., Richard P., Mo U., Judy M., Bob M., Angie P.
<hr/>Dan Estes:
Comparing Obama and Dudley is like comparing Van Gogh to the fella who conjures up the dot-to-dots.
While I am not opposed to a broad diversity of real world experience reflected by our Electeds, I just don't see the pro hoops = Constitutional Law Prof/community organizer/State and US Senator analysis.
While the race itself IS a competition, and Dudley may feel a certain level of familiarity and comfort in high pressure/ high stakes winner take-all-battle, the reality is that the duties of actual governance are an arduous, complicated and continuous. The season never ends.
Especially in these times, we need the seasoned vet who not only understands the challenges inherent in the Oregon system, but also gets how difficult it is to institute even the most beneficial change.
Dudley's handlers paint him as new blood, but he mostly reiterates the old, supply-side GOP mantra of "cut taxes".
That's worked out SOOOO well....
12:32 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
It actually has ... tax cuts that is.
3:44 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Example, please.
1:34 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
saying 66/67 should have been temporary was disappointing to progressives. And it's a real term with a distinct meaning apart from liberal, TA. Quit mocking it.
2:58 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
"Dudley hasn't had to contend with his base yet."
Yeah Jeff, Coyote and the NW Republican crew are spitting nails right now, but if Dudley gets some advisors from....let's say.... The Club for Growth crowd, they'll fall into line pretty quickly, I imagine.
The whole thing reminds me of Peter Sellars in "Being There".
Maybe we ought to start referring to him as Chauncy Dudley.
12:36 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
Only if we can start calling Kitz "Dr. Bean" Part 3
2:36 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Ohhhh, like Mr. Bean, but not funny?
3:46 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
I've done a quick review of reports on SuveyUSA's methodology. I may not have read or searched sufficiently, but I find little grounds on which to dismiss this poll solely on methodological grounds. Other than some discussion of the likely voter screen, their track record looks to be pretty good.
The "likely voter" screen has been used as a reason to dismiss this poll. It is true that measuring the likelihood of voting four months ahead of time can be problematic, as Mark Blumenthal points out here), mainly because most respondents really haven't thought about whether they'll vote or not.
However Blumenthal also points out in a discussion of the methdology (here) that Rasmussen is really identifying respondents with a "high propensity" to vote.
While Rasmussen deserves criticism for not saying HOW they do this, for the purposes of understanding this poll, it's pretty important to realize that ANY decent methodology to identify high propensity voters is going to select on a fairly basic set of correlates to turnout: age, income, race, gender, education, political interest, etc.
What this means is that, unless you think SurveyUSA is total junk (and they have little interest in publishing junk--they'd quickly lose their business if their surveys were badly biased), in the worst case, this poll is a snapshot of moderately politically aware and informed citizens in Oregon.
And I can't see any other way to spin this other than it's not good news for the Kitzhaber campaign. In all of the groups where turnout is higher, Kitzhaber is running behind or even. He's only two points ahead among self-identified Independents. All this has to be worrisome among a political leader who ought to have a large advantage in terms of visibility.
It's interesting that some say the problem is Kitzhaber is not liberal enough. The largest ideological group in the survey by far are moderates. The ONLY thing keeping Dudley's lead as small as shown is Kitz's lead among moderates. I can't see how running to the left would help appeal to this very large group in the electorate.
The take away messages from this poll, to me, are a) Dudley is a very serious contender, and the Kitzhaber campaign had better realize this, and b) it is time to start to nail Chris Dudley to policy and ideological positions. The more that reality intrudes, the less that citizens will be able to project onto a relatively unknown political quantity.
4:06 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
The under 50 crowd of Dems will really need to turn out in this off year election. We're counting on you Metro Dems, we need your numbers!
Oh I know some of you are turned off, but you'll be really turned off if Dudley gets elected.
What have you done to assist the Kitz campaign?
4:33 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
I voted for Bradbury, although it was a close call, but gladly will support Kitzhaber.
The polling does not surprise me. Democrats national wide have a fight this year although I believe it will not be the sweep the GOP wants. This is one race the Democrats should win.
Kitzhaber touted his electability and now he needs to get down out of the etheral and connect with planet earth if that is possible.
The win against against Denny Smith was hard fought but not to surprising and the win against Sizemore was a cake walk.
For the first time he's facing a well-funded moderate with urban appeal. We know Dudley is a mere vesel for the corporate rats but that won't be enough alone to carry the day.
He's going to need more than blue jeans to attract younger voters many of which see him as a link to the past. (And when I'm talking younger voters I don't mean "progressives" either.)
I'd be worrying more about the young middle ground and turning out the Democrats. We know Dudley's "message" will connect because it will all be driven by polls and consultants.
Oregon really needs a good performance Dr. John. Kick it in high gear.
(I haven't been posting here like anyone cares and part of the reason has been I'm not nuts about linking all of this in the Facebook data base as they have about as much respect for privacy as a peeping tom. We will se how this plays off on FB and Google.)
Peace Out.
10:52 p.m.
Jun 15, '10
FYI, John, Facebook doesn't have access to the comments you post here. Other than authentication, all the interaction you're having on BlueOregon is with BlueOregon's server.
(Unless you chooose, explicitly, to share your comment on Facebook.)
1:52 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Thanks for the info Kari. So many sites now have this Facebook log-on. I post on CBS news a bit and now they have this as well. Even if they don't have the posts Facebook has the log-on data I am sure- I'm not too paranoid about the data being out there but handing more data to Facebook- makes me slightly squeemish.
12:26 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
CONT'S FROM ABOVE
7) While it may have only taken the liberals a very short time to wear out their welcome (and their supermajority) on a national level, Oregonians have had a longer honeymoon period to allow the ether to wear off and more of them are thinking clearly than ever before. Their media manufactured hatred of Bush has faded dramatically and Obama's thick headed race towards socialism has and is killing more jobs than he will ever be able to create, his "I don't care what the people want I am going to do what I want anyway I can do it" attitude that has been the hallmark of his anemic presidency so far has pissed alot of people off in a very big way. He has broken way more campaign promises than he has kept (10:1) and just as importantly he has demonstrated a willingness to allow his people to load his teleprompter with lies so obvious that people with IQ's of 50 know it. His healthcare tax was sold to everyone with nothing but lies bordering on tooth fairy type fantasies. The real impacts of that tax increase and it's effect on small business and additional job losses are just beginning to surface and by november it will all be "out there" (8) with each passing day the two unpopular wars that got so many lefties elected belongs to them more and more and with the troop build up in Afghan. Obama and the left own that war lock stock and barrel.
Outside of this little bubble of optimistic liberalism is a great big unemployed country on it's way back down into the second leg of this double dip recession. Come November it will be easier to sell ice to eskimos than it will be to sell failed liberal ideas in the US or in Oregon...even to Oregonians. Dudley has the star power and the money to hammer those ideas home and with each passing day as things don't get better his ideas are going to start sounding better and better to everyone except you guys who are opposed to him only because he is a republican. Now thats a respectable "progressive" way to choose our leaders isn't it? That's how high schools and jr highs select king and queen of the prom not how a state selects a governor
1:54 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
I like people that write longer than me and don't use paragraphs. Makes me look slightly reasonable.
Best thing about thus guys posts is they're so long not even his Mother would read it.
2:38 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Who has time for syntax, puntuation, and modern English when there is and End Time to prepare for!!!!
2:41 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
You know Bummer, I'm going to preempt some comments and announce to you that we don't play the "He Who Squawks Loudest and Longest Must Be Right" game. I know Palin makes it look good, but she's hot so it's different.
You need to learn that brevity is the key to political success. Voters and politicians alike need simple messages that support the idea that talk is cheap, and solutions speak for themselves. In order to be a good advocate for any front, you're going to need to learn that.
7:51 a.m.
Jun 16, '10
from the "DR":
"Come November it will be easier to sell ice to eskimos than it will be to sell failed liberal ideas in the US or in Oregon... even to Oregonians. Dudley has the star power and the money to hammer those ideas home and with each passing day .... "
The sad fact of the matter is that the Dr. is right - Dudley's "ideas" will have significant appeal.
But the Dr. is a blogging case-in-point for the right wing messaging system, especially as he so perfectly regurgitates the ad nauseums about the economic status of the state and nation as failure of liberal policies.
30 years after Reaganomics started the spiral that created massive tax reductions for the most wealthy, limitations on regulation that formed the blueprints for both the banking and BP disasters, the righties blythely hold the mirror away from themselves, point at the evil liberals, and screech insults.
It's like totaling the car and blaming the body shop for not being able to fix the damn thing by yesterday.
But yes, the Dr. is right about the sales pitch. Many frustrated voters may well listen to more "supply side" swill garnished with rosy promises, and buy their crap.
How do we buck the B.S.? We get our butts out there and have the important conversations at the doors and on the phones. We volunteer - even just a couple of times (and bring a friend) - to canvass for the Dems who believe in real solutions to the problems we face.
...and we turn their mirror back on the GOP.
2:11 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
I saw Kitz and Bradbury speak at an ONA conference a few months ago. I thought Kitz came off as less animated, less personable and had fewer creative solutions for solving problems than Bradbury. What he did have is in depth knowledge of the problems we're facing and he projected a great deal of confidence to solve our state's problems. I came away impressed with him. Although I liked Bradbury's people-person skills, I thought Kitz would be a great person to have in office during these economically tough times.
2:45 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
Agreed. I very much look forward to televised debate time, because you're right, Kitzhaber's wonky recall for policy really is impressive. He's a good talker and even better, a great panel moderator who is conscientious about getting everyone heard. The way he moderated a job summit last week really maximized the other panelists' contributions.
2:57 p.m.
Jun 16, '10
I have a hard time believing it was an over sampling of Republicans. The same poll showed Wyden up 13 points on Huffman. You could say that the same group of people that want Wyden also want Dudley. If the poll was simply distorted by an overly Republican study sample, Huffman would have shown numbers ahead of Wyden.
9:45 p.m.
Jun 21, '10
I've heard Dudley speak long before any announced interest in being Governor. He's dull as the day is long. Kitz will kick ass in the debates. But until those times when there will be debates, where are the ads? Dudley came out with a (pardon my borrowing of this phrase) "hopey changey" ad and I'm not seeing anything from Kitz. How is the war chest doing compared the Republican machine?