SurveyUSA: Kitzhaber, Dudley lead big (updated w/ video)
Kari Chisholm
KATU has released the results of another statewide SurveyUSA poll of likely primary voters -- perhaps the final one of the primary election.
(Update: I've added KATU's video - which includes reactions from both Dudley and Kitzhaber, as well as analysis from Len Bergstein.)
In the Democratic primary for Governor, John Kitzhaber leads Bill Bradbury by a margin of 59% to 25%. Bradbury has a 38-37% lead among self-identified conservative Democrats and has a 47-43 lead among Hispanics. Kitzhaber leads in all other subgroups.
On the Republican side, Chris Dudley leads Allen Alley by a margin of 42% to 24%. SurveyUSA notes a significant gender gap: "Dudley leads by more than 2:1 among men, but edges Alley by only 3 points among women."
In the Senate race - no surprise: Ron Wyden has 80%. On the GOP side, Jim Huffman is leading the field of nobodies, but with a lackluster 20%. SurveyUSA: "Among those who have already returned ballots, Huffman gets 30%, Stutzman 17%." Interestingly, Tom Stutzman leads among voters under age 35.
Details at SurveyUSA. Discuss.
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9:25 p.m.
May 10, '10
I guess I am surprised by the margins on both the Dem and Republican Governor races. I actually thought that Alley was making more headway since Dudley has not appealed to the Tea Party folks.
11:17 p.m.
May 10, '10
Full disclosure: My firm built John Kitzhaber's and Ron Wyden's campaign websites. I speak only for myself.
4:08 a.m.
May 11, '10
I have a lot of friends working for the Bradbury and Alley campaigns. I used to be involved but have become cynical. My debate with them has been unchanged from the start. That great bulge that characterizes American politics, as well as waistlines, decided on Kitzhauber and Dudley with less than five seconds thought. The rest is a sideshow. On election night I will watch the Kitzhaber supporters celebrate, and know in my heart that the situation is beyond redemption.
6:51 a.m.
May 11, '10
John - Never overestimate the electoral significance of a tempest in a teapot.
Secretary Bradbury is right about where I'd expect him to be, despite his significant and generally commendable personal efforts in this campaign.
I'd have guessed Alley would be a little closer, and I'd have liked to see Sizemore included in the poll since it wouldn't shock me to see him pull 15-20 percent in the Republican primary.
I can't agree with John Hobbes' maudlin prose on the state of Oregon politics.
At least in Oregon, primary voters in both parties appear to be ready to favor more moderate, independent-minded candidates as opposed to candidates running more partisan "play-to-the base" ideological campaigns.
I see that as a good thing.
6:58 a.m.
May 11, '10
All the candidates were included in the poll, Sal. Sizemore and Lim each got 8%. See, Repulican voters aren't as dumb as you guys think. :-)
I do agree with your assessment, that it is reassuring that primary voters appear to be supporting the less partisan and ideological candidates this year.
3:27 p.m.
May 11, '10
Kinda setting the bar low don't ya think?
(wry grin)
6:50 a.m.
May 12, '10
I agree that "failed" campaigns can be a lightening rod for issues that never get a hearing otherwise. One could credit Howard Dean with Health Care Reform. I think it's like Teflon, though. People say that money spent on the moon shots were not as costly as would appear because of the spin off technology, like Teflon. I've always wondered what the cost would have been to simply set out to develop Teflon. The final price tag seems to have been more than the sum of the parts. That was my point, actually, that the "other factors" seem to have grown to outweigh the will of the voters (and mainly in the mind of the voters)!
9:39 a.m.
May 11, '10
I don't see that as a good thing, in current circumstances.
If the states finances were stable, incremental changes and moderation might be commendable. But neither Kitz nor Dudley have shown a meaningful ability to lead the state out of the current financial problems.
While he didn't deliver on details, at least Bradbury had the right basic plan.
3:11 p.m.
May 11, '10
Ahhh yes, more "moderate" candidates and bipartisanship too......by all means.
Financial deregulation, environmental deregulation, NAFTA, Iraq, offshore drilling....all awesome ideas which enjoyed strong support from "moderates"........very bipartisan.
Just the other day most of the "moderate" politicians voted to kill the Kaufman/Brown Senate bill to break up the banks. More moderation please!
That pesky progressive base thinking that being right on the fundamental issues of our time should mean something. Not very "independent-minded" of them.
12:41 p.m.
May 12, '10
You tell 'em, bro!
7:31 a.m.
May 11, '10
It will be interesting to see the results when all the pesky NAV's and other unaffiliated groups are allowed to vote in the general election. after all, they are the deciding votes.
1:30 p.m.
May 11, '10
NAVs are the only unaffilliated voters; everyone else is in a minor party.
8:22 a.m.
May 11, '10
I'm not surprised Kitzhaber is ahead, but I'm impressed by the margin. Dudley is an attractive candidate running a good campaign and I think Bradbury would get clobbered by him in a general election in this economy, so I think Kitzhaber is our only hope. I have mixed feelings about Kitzhaber, but I will definitely be voting for him when I send in my ballot today.
9:00 a.m.
May 11, '10
Chris Dudley is a bundle of zeal and energy and goodwill who will be absolutely eaten alive in Salem. Anyone who votes for Chris Dudley is voting for his chief of staff.
11:11 a.m.
May 11, '10
Ooh, excellent point, Sal.
Which leads to the next question: Who are the people that Dudley's surrounded himself with? Who is he listening to?
Seems like an excellent question for an intrepid reporter.
9:09 a.m.
May 11, '10
Dudley had a huge booth at the Medford Tea Party on April 15th. Does he have the chops? If he wins we'll find out.
11:37 a.m.
May 11, '10
Moderation and seeking common ground with the insane GOP has not yielded any benefit on the national level, so why take that tack in a state where the Dems have the GOP greatly outnumbered?
All we get by taking that approach are good policies that then must be diluted to the point of being ineffectual. Oregon does not have to go that way- the GOP in this state is a joke.
11:43 a.m.
May 11, '10
I think a lot of this nostalgia for collegiality and independence of political figures can be summed up in two words: Tom McCall.
That GOP doesn't exist anymore.
11:45 a.m.
May 11, '10
While generally I find little good comes from questioning polling methodology...I have to question any poll that shows Bradbury ahead with CONSERVATIVE Democrats. That's just bizarre.
Maybe it is SurveyUSA's automated polling system where they called a sample of Oregon residents and allowed people to self identify a) as Democrats and b) as likely voters all to an automated touch tone system.
Will be interesting to see how this polling matches up with the actual results given Kate Brown's 38% turnout prediction.
12:15 p.m.
May 11, '10
As I happened to be one who was contacted by the poll, that's about it.
Identified as KATU Public Opinion Poll on caller ID. Asked if I was D, R or NAV, press 1, 2 or 3. Then who I voted for, and later whether I considered myself Conservative, Moderate or Liberal. I don't know whether they changed the sequence of answers.
3:41 p.m.
May 11, '10
There was only a 1% difference between Kitz (37%) and Bradbury (38%) among self-identifying "conservative" Democratic primary voters.