Election Night Reactions
Kari Chisholm
Well, the primary election is over! Now, it's on to November - but first, some reactions:
The Governor's race features John Kitzhaber, who won big, and Chris Dudley, who won with just 39% of the GOP vote. Ron Wyden won easily, of course, but GOP nominee Jim Huffman got just 41% of the Republican vote against non-existent competition.
Susan Castillo won a third term as Supt. of Public Instruction - whew! Ted Wheeler handily won the nod for State Treasurer and will face off against Chris Telfer.
One of the most interesting outcomes of last night's election comes in GOP primaries in HD 57 and 58. The Oregon GOP and the Tea Party crew targeted two GOP incumbents, Reps. Greg Smith and Bob Jenson, in retaliation for their votes to raise taxes to support critical state services. Both Smith and Jenson stood by their votes - arguing that state services are needed to weather the economic downturn. What did those conservative primary voters in eastern Oregon do, when given a choice between the anti-tax rhetoric and funding state services? They re-elected Smith and Jenson. While there's clearly anti-tax fervor sweeping the GOP nationally, it seems that a message that focuses on the value that voters receive in return for their taxes can work - and work well. There's a lesson here for Democrats.
The Metro President race will feature Tom Hughes vs. Bob Stacey, which should feature a strong contrast between visions for the metro region. One interesting question: With Andy Duyck's win over Dick Schouten for county chair, is Washington County shifting back to the right? This may have statewide implications in the fall.
In Portland, Dan Saltzman cruised to victory. Interestingly, the county commission race will feature Karol Collymore and Loretta Smith - the two African-American women in the race. I'm sure this means something, but I'm not sure what. Did race and gender play a role? Despite their insider connections, perhaps voters saw African-American women as outsiders in this outsider's year? Or perhaps Smith and Collymore just ran better campaigns - with a message that resonated better. Fodder for discussion.
In local races elsewhere, it's notable that Yamhill County Commissioner Mary Stern is leading lunatic fringe candidate (and former perky morning TV host) Mary Starrett - but only by 13 votes, out of 21673 votes cast. Also, Sid Leiken seems to have survived his congressional meltdown to lead the race for Lane county commission - though he'll be in a runoff with former DPLC chair Pat Riggs-Henson.
There's plenty more to discuss, but I'll leave it there. What were your reactions from Tuesday night?
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10:12 a.m.
May 19, '10
Schouten's defeat in Washington County is indeed concerning, but has anyone done the turnout analysis yet. The Republicans had more interesting primaries there and Washington County has a lot of apolitical voters in a quiet election. Other than a lot of Duyck signs what did he do that Schouten didn't from a campaign perspective? Until these questions are answered it isn't clear what the implications for the Fall are.
12:57 p.m.
May 19, '10
This race was deeply disappointing to me. I agree that some fundamental analysis is needed here.
Ugh.
8:10 a.m.
May 20, '10
As a Dist 4 constituent, I right there with you!
10:31 a.m.
May 19, '10
Yet Castillo won Washington County over Maurer, albiet with slimmer margins. It is something for Democrats to look at and redouble efforts to be sure, but I don't see it as more right-leaning than in previous cycles.
10:36 a.m.
May 19, '10
The Cornett result in the race for Saltzman's seat was what stood out to me. $150K in public money and the outcome was staggering. Saltzman is and has been a vulnerable candidate for some time. I thought Cornett was the best candidate to force a runoff and I say that as a Saltzman supporter. I'm shocked he got that few votes.
10:59 a.m.
May 19, '10
I'm not surprised he came in third, but I am surprised he almost got beaten out by a guy who spent zero dollars (Soto) but I understand it. Even though I (and friends of mine) signed his petition and gave him $5 to get on the ballot, he gave no compelling pitch for why anyone should vote for him. While a candidate running against an incumbent needs to give a reason for firing the incumbent, he or she also needs to make an even stronger reason why they have the skill set and are the person to do a better job.
Unfortunately Jesse failed on that score with me and more than a few others. There are other reasons why he failed to connect with more than a few voters, but I don't wish to kick a man while he is down, because I don't dislike him as a person, but he was not ready for prime-time (nor was/is Volm).
11:11 a.m.
May 19, '10
Oh, and I ended up voting for Saltzman in the end.
8:25 a.m.
May 20, '10
Arf, arf, smurf pup!
4:15 p.m.
May 20, '10
I have no idea what that is suppose to mean.
11:27 a.m.
May 19, '10
You're that sure Castillo won? I show only a 4500 vote separation with still some counting to go.
You may be right, but I still see that as close. There is hope yet that someone with an actual education degree will be at the head of the education department.
If Castillo squeaks it out with the ultra-powerful labor machine backing her, that isn't much to crow about.
11:43 a.m.
May 19, '10
Where do you get that info from?
According to the SoS website, Castillo leads by 11,703.
12:32 p.m.
May 19, '10
That might be more up to date. I got it from KPTV, with 939 of 1000 reporting.
3:32 p.m.
May 19, '10
The SoS website now show's Castillo's lead down to about 3,700 votes.
11:30 a.m.
May 19, '10
All is not lost in Washington County. Dick Schouten will continue to serve on the board, and voters will still have a chance in November to place Greg Mecklem and Greg Malinkowski on the board to create a progressive majority of three. I urge everyone to take a look at these two campaigns. Donate your time, and your money. Washington County deserves better.
12:25 p.m.
May 19, '10
FYI, for readers: Dan Lombardi was Dick Schouten's campaign manager.
12:55 p.m.
May 19, '10
Yes, sorry for not disclosing that.
6:22 p.m.
May 19, '10
Has anyone seen a precinct and/or district breakdown for the Duyck/Schouten race? If not do you know when those stats will be available?
I'm very interested to see if Duyck won District 4.
7:32 p.m.
May 19, '10
It usually takes a little bit for the county to put that together.
8:07 a.m.
May 20, '10
Thnx Dan
5:18 p.m.
May 20, '10
I spoke with the county today, and they said that the precinct level data should be available by next Wednesday.
11:32 a.m.
May 19, '10
Kari, I would like to hear your thoughts on why the social media strategy used by Mandate failed so badly in Cornett's race, considering Mandate received over $16,000.
12:27 p.m.
May 19, '10
I'm not going to do the post-mortem here on the blog - that's between Jesse and I.
The Cornett campaign spent roughly $10k on online ads. That leaves $140k for other stuff - so it's a misconception that the Cornett campaign was relying entirely on an online media strategy.
In other words, Jesse spent roughly 7% of his budget on online ads. That's less than the 10% that many winning campaigns have spent in recent months across the country.
The idea that online ads can - all by themselves - carry a candidate to victory is absurd. And it is NOT what the Cornett campaign was attempting to do.
When campaigns lose, it's easy to think that they did everything wrong. When campaigns win, it's easy to think that they did everything right. Neither is true.
11:54 a.m.
May 19, '10
Endorsements generally don't matter in major races, but where you have a large field of people voters are unfamiliar with, it can be a big boost. I think having the O and WW endorse Karol was a big boost. Of course, she earned that endorsement by impressing the ed boards with her credentials, impressive campaigning, and policy positions. I think that's what done it for her.
12:28 p.m.
May 19, '10
Time for Kitzhaber and the Dems to start defining Dudley. The race at this point resembles 1982 when a young Ted Kulongoski ran against Vic Atiyeh. Atiyeh defined Kulongoski during the summer and really hammered him starting about Labor Day. Time for Kitzhaber to do the same thing to Dudley.
12:59 p.m.
May 19, '10
Sure will be easier to tell voters why they shouldn't vote for Dudley than to find a reason why anyone should vote FOR Kitz.
9:13 a.m.
May 20, '10
And that is how the Democratic Party of America marches on!
1:05 p.m.
May 19, '10
Congrats to all the victors last night... especially Bob Stacey.
As far as analyzing the Multnomah County Commission race, I start with the simplest explanation: those who fund raise best win.
That is, three of the four candidates who did best raised the most money.
Crunching the numbers is imprecise, as in-kind contributions aren't always worth what they're reported at, and the numbers aren't complete (i.e. some late contributions haven't been reported). Slightly discounting some in-kind newspaper ads, four candidates (van Orden, Rubio, Markgraf, Smith) spent between $8.13 and $9.50 a vote.
The outliers are Karol (solid campaign structure and momentum built on recent effort to get appointed to Legislature, strong endorsements, and killer fashion sense - $3 a vote), Currie (spent $22.50 a vote -- not sure what happened), and Hansen ($2.70 a vote, some older folks who vote in primaries still remember him). Oh, and Phillip. Who everyone loves and was still on the ballot and in the voters' pamphlet.
Again, congrats to all who ran - whether you won or lost, you have my respect for stepping up.
2:10 p.m.
May 19, '10
You have to be careful about confusing correlation with causation. While clearly having more money is better than having less money, often candidates raise more money than their opponents for the same reason they win, i.e., they are better candidates.
2:18 p.m.
May 19, '10
Agreed - that was a sentence I left out. What makes people good fundraisers are often those qualities that make them good candidates - a solid network of supporters, an ability to connect to donors and voters, a clear, compelling story and vision, a focus for work, a strong campaign, etc.
My point was that wondering what about the demographic of the leaders and how voters reacted to that is probably not where to look for explanation. In an eight person race of relative unknowns, getting your message out will lead to votes. To do that, you raise money.
8:22 a.m.
May 20, '10
Interestingly, if everyone went the public finance option like Jesse Cornett, we could begin to talk about causation. Just another reason that it is the way things should be done.
11:47 p.m.
May 19, '10
I second that "win or lose, thanks for stepping up" sentiment. It takes a lot to go out there as a candidate.
9:15 a.m.
May 20, '10
Pretty even-handed of you, congratulating Kremer. You're a better man than I am.
1:18 p.m.
May 19, '10
I believe Bob Stacey will be able to beat Tom Hughes in the Metro President runoff because I think Stacey will get most of Rex Burkholder's votes.
And I wish Christine Gregoire would have taken that Obama Admin. job before she and Kulongoski empowered WASHDOT and ODOT to form this public relations, blue ribbon panel, which is designed to sell us the CRC bridge.
2:05 p.m.
May 19, '10
So the CRC is the area's purity test for progressives?
(shakes head)
12:00 p.m.
May 20, '10
Mitchell Gore,
Well, in the choice between Stacey and Burkholder, the CRC was definitely the defining issue.
And in the overall scheme of important issues, I think the CRC ranks pretty high up there: Are we going to get serious about tackling the most dire threat, the defining moral issue of this century, which is climate change, or not? Expending $3.5-4 bil. in order to continue prioritizing single-passenger, internal-combustion vehicles is not being serious.
4:17 p.m.
May 20, '10
I am plenty serious about addressing moving off of fossil fuels. But the scale of the CRC is not the problem nor the solution.
11:15 a.m.
May 21, '10
I agree with Robert Liberty on this- the mega-CRC is "a 1950s solution". And the climate can't afford those types of solutions, anymore.
2:13 p.m.
May 19, '10
One thing to keep in mind, Stephen, is that the November election will not simply be about competing for Burkholder's votes. There will be about twice as many voters casting ballots in November, which means at least half of them didn't vote for anyone in May.
12:04 p.m.
May 20, '10
Good point, Mr. Roberts. Perhaps I should've said that we can extrapolate that Stacey has a sizeable lead, as we can expect most Burkholder voters to support him?
1:30 p.m.
May 19, '10
"I have a bridge I'd like to sell you"
2:14 p.m.
May 19, '10
the results from the education race are concerning.
9:22 p.m.
May 19, '10
Why?
7:14 p.m.
May 19, '10
Is Washington county shifting right or are other counties (cough- Mutnomah- cough) caught in the gravitational pull of a leftist black hole? Seriously, remove Washington county from the equation and Oregon's bleak economy gets much darker. Don't believe me look at the numbers or simply take a trip over to the Orenco area in Hillsboro. Unlike Portland proper, Washco puts the progress in progressive.
9:46 p.m.
May 19, '10
I don't think Washington County is shifting right. The election for County Commission is essentially all name ID. The guy who actually sent out tons of mailers and had lots of signs won. If you present the average Washington County resident with what Duyck wants to do vs what Schouten wants to do, the hefty majority would go for Schouten. This isn't about policy.
And before you get yourself all twitterpated about the fabulous way that WaCo is managing the down economy, take a drive up Cornelius Pass Road south from West Union to Baseline. It's empty office park complex after empty office park complex. And Streets of Tanasbourne has a bunch of empty space. And then there's all the land yet to be built on that's been zoned commercial or retail with big real estate signs. Washington County is awash in empty space, waiting for more business. Yet the WaCo Commission in it's crazy, batsh** way, keeps pushing for more.
Further, polling shows that the general WaCo population is none too happy with this. Or the fact that taxpayers are saddled with hefty infrastructure bills.
So please, spare the "black hole" hyperbole. Washington County has oodles of retail space yet to fill. Don't get me wrong, I think Orenco is great..but it's the exception in the County, not the rule. The vast majority of retain and housing in Washington County resembles little of Orenco.
8:20 a.m.
May 20, '10
Glad to hear their not shifting right. They're plenty far to the right already!
8:38 p.m.
May 19, '10
Mike Dugan, the DA of Deschutes County since 1987 and a long-time Democrat took a tough public stand for 66 & 67 and was targeted for doing that and was defeated based largely on the fact Deschutes County voted against 66 & 67. Only 5 of 36 DAs put their names in voters pamphlet (I was one) but Dugan has served honorably and was hurt for standing up for a tough Blue cause.
10:29 p.m.
May 19, '10
I am very distressed by Mike Dugan's defeat. Josh is right - Mike stuck his neck out for us all and suffered for it. I sent him a small check but should have done more - I could not believe he was really in danger. Josh, thanks for pointing it out and thanks for your own efforts on behalf of 66 and 67.
8:18 a.m.
May 20, '10
No progressives I know were celebrating anything. I went to bed early and looked at the results in the morning. Then I threw up. Saltzman...no prob. Or his chief of staff. Or his. There's your winners. I think I'm going to wretch again!
BTW, congrats to Mary Volm, spending 15% of Saltzman's total, and nearly forcing a run-off.
9:26 a.m.
May 20, '10
There are two other issues to consider in Dugan's loss: As a former reporter, I covered the street racing accident that put David Black behind bars for six-years. Dugan took a lot of flack from the community about how he prosecuted the case (I'm not saying it was right or wrong, just making an observation). Six-years later, there are still op-ed's being written in The Bulletin about that case.
I also think campaigning for his wife, Rep. Judy Stiegler, and advocating for 66 & 67 had an impact. The reality is that Deschutes County is still a mostly conservative area, and it's my observation that if Dugan stayed out of the limelight on those two issues, the outcome probably would've been different.
Voters have short-term memory when it comes to accomplishments, but long-term memory when it comes to the more controversial or political issues one advocates for.
7:58 a.m.
May 23, '10
Just noticed the Bradbury advert is still up on here.