Castillo vs. Maurer headed for a recount? Surprise runoff?
Kari Chisholm
As the votes continued to be tallied statewide today, Susan Castillo's lead over challenger Ron Maurer continued to shrink. As of 5 p.m., the Secretary of State reported a margin of just 50.08% to 49.61%.
Earlier today, Maurer withdrew his concession, according to Tracy Loew at the Statesman-Journal (not that candidate concessions have any legal meaning.)
One possibility is a recount. Oregon law calls for an automatic recount when the margin is less than 0.20%. Right now, it's 0.47%.
But as the O's Jeff Mapes notes, another possibility is a November runoff. Unbelievable, but true. I've been saying for weeks that there's only two candidates, so it's over in May. But while there were only two candidates printed on the ballot, 2110 voters cast write-in votes. If Castillo's total dips below 50% plus one vote, there will be a runoff in the fall.
All that said, the AP reports that most of the remaining 4400 ballots to be counted are in Multnomah County -- where Castillo leads 60.5% to 39.0%.
Update: I've posted an update here, including a correction to these numbers.
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11:22 p.m.
May 19, '10
She'll hang on. As noted, the ballots are in Mult Co. Still too close for comfort, not sure it tells us much though.
8:12 a.m.
May 20, '10
When are we going to stop electing leaders based on the magic ballot? People that cry potential fraud when the subject is postal voting, but see no prob with that +1 magic ballot, show that the process is mostly window dressing. Obviously knowing that you only need a few more votes is the best way to promote fraud and flip-flopping on the issues.
We've seen this 1,000,000 times with Ralph Nader. As long as people thinking for themselves and bothering to write-in a candidate or vote third party is problematic, we cannot say that we really want a responsible electorate.
Hell, if that's what we wanted, we would start, MINIMUM, with voting on the week-ends. Works in Australia. Maybe they're not more progressive than American, maybe their system is.
12:48 p.m.
May 20, '10
How does voting on a weekend apply in Oregon? We vote for 17 or 18 days. Isn't that enough to find a convenient time?
7:44 a.m.
May 23, '10
I don't have numbers, but a lot of people won't use the mails to vote. You have a good point, of course. I was really thinking about the country as a whole and what it says to the "every vote counts" rhetoric.
4:13 p.m.
May 20, '10
John, what do you suggest other than picking a winner based on who got the most votes?
10:00 a.m.
May 20, '10
Not gonna happen. Multco will come through. The only reason this race is close is because the public doesn't know what an extremist nut case Maurer is, and because they are frustrated with all the confusing education media reports they get.
10:53 a.m.
May 20, '10
Maybe they do and that is why they are voting for him.
12:23 p.m.
May 20, '10
I think the public is paying more attention than ever, that is why Castillo didn't have a cakewalk. Voters looked through all her accomplishments over the last eight years. Then, after the 24 seconds that took, they saw that Maurer actually has a Doctorate in Education instead of a Bachelor's in nothing to do with education.
She might still pull it off as the anti-reform union machine is pretty strong. But people are starting to wake up and she has nobody to blame but herself for her lack of a mandate.
7:51 a.m.
May 23, '10
You know, I sympathize instantly for anyone that gets called names by the opposition. I look into the policies, and say "Yuck!!!". You do your cause a greater service by stating what you disagree with rather than constantly referring to people as "nut case".
It's also extremely disrespectful to those with mental health issues. Imagine if I said of him, "He's a social cripple. Get him a wheel chair", or "He's as deaf and dumb on the issues as a deaf mute"!
7:53 a.m.
May 23, '10
My comment is a few down. This time I KNOW this is where I posted it. Something is screwing up on the page functionality every now and then (and I assume this will appear under Bill Ryan).
3:50 p.m.
May 20, '10
My curiousity has the better of me. Is a recount forced only if the TOP TWO candidates are separated by less than .20%? I suspect yes, but Susan is less than .20% from an "action item." SOS now has her at 50.10%, thus only .10% from forcing a run-off. Anyone know the statute on this?
3:52 p.m.
May 20, '10
More curiousity: Anyone know if there has ever been a run-off when there was only ever two candidates to begin with? (Not counting "major" write-in campaigns)
4:05 p.m.
May 20, '10
It is an interesting question. Since everyone has the right to do a write-in candidate, and there are always a few, I suppose any two-person race that is close to a tie could end up with just under the 50%+1 vote requirement.
Here is a KPTV story on this http://www.kptv.com:80/news/23623982/detail.html?treets=ptl1&tid=26511583094813&tml=ptl1_4pm&tmi=ptl1_4pm_1_06000105202010&ts=H
4:05 p.m.
May 20, '10
Well, I guess I have to go back to links school.