More Polling: Kitz Leads Republicans, Many Undecided
Jeff Alworth
We have a new poll that offers a murky look at the governor's race. This one, by Bob Moore, looked at how John Kitzhaber would match up against the two Republicans. Predictably, he's out in front. That's the good news. The bad news? In neither matchup does he top 50%.
Kitzhaber: 45%
Allen Alley: 33%
Undecided: 22%Kitzhaber: 45%
Chris Dudley: 33%
Undecided: 21%
Again, this doesn't tell us a lot. It's still very early, neither Dudley nor Alley have Kitzhaber's name recognition, and most notably, the other Democrat wasn't included. (In an email, the Bradbury campaign pointed to the Kitzhaber's low numbers, but couldn't say too much about a poll he wasn't in.) I couldn't track down the crosstabs for detailed county numbers; instead, we have this comment from Moore, which adds to the murkiness. In Multnomah County, Kitzhaber is the clear favorite in both match ups, where he receives majority support, but he leads by only a narrow plurality in Washington and Clackamas Counties, as well as in the Willamette Valley. However, the race is a dead heat elsewhere in the state. By party, Democrats are showing more loyalty to Kitzhaber today than Republicans are to either Dudley or Alley. Among Independents, Kitzhaber is the plurality favorite against both GOP contenders.
Republicans will no doubt take heart in the fact that the Republicans are doing well in the Willamette Valley swing counties, but a dead heat in the rest of the state? That seems especially bad for Alley and Dudley. And Kitzhaber leading among independents is a positive sign. But really, it's way too early for polls to mean much, especially with all these undecideds.
Update. Bob Moore just sent me the crosstabs, the results of which I'll include below the jump. Thanks, Bob!
Kitzhaber (Dudley)
Multnomah: 63% (20%)
Wash/Clack: 40% (32%)
Will Valley: 45% (36%)
Elsewhere: 39% (41%)
GOP: 15% (61%)
Dem: 71% (12%)
Other/Ind: 40% (33%)
Kitzhaber (Alley)
Multnomah: 64% (17%)
Wash/Clack: 41% (34%)
Will Valley: 43% (36%)
Elsewhere: 39% (39%)
GOP: 14% (62%)
Dem: 71% (11%)
Other/Ind: 41% (28%)
The age and gender demographics aren't particularly revealing; Kitzhaber does a little better overall with women, a little worse with men. Against Dudley, support by age is pretty consistent (though Dudley does poorly with the youngest group), though against Alley, Kitzhaber does very well with my age cohort (35-44) and poorly with the oldest voters.
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4:55 p.m.
Feb 25, '10
good timing, Jeff. Nate Silver addressed the Myth of the Incumbent 50% Rule just the other day. basically, Kitz has little to worry about. even Kulo added 8% to his final total, from early poll to election day.
Silver makes the point that early polls say more about the opponent, and neither of these guys is doing well. it's too early for either confidence or despair, but the polls have to make the Kitz campaign feel reasonably happy.
Feb 25, '10
Barring some unforeseen gruesome revelation I'll be blackening the Kitz box on my ballot just as I did many years ago. He's always struck me as a decent man with a western sensibility who genuinely gives a shit about Oregon's future in addition to his health care cred. No major beef with Bradbury especially considering the lame-ass opposition from the Republican side. However, his zeal for the Al Gore global warming slide show bugs me as it appears more like Scientology than science in it's current state. Hey, whatever you're into so long as you don't forcefully impose it upon me.
Feb 25, '10
I lack the science and statistical skills to evaluate all of this. But I sent my money to Kitz and the retro bumper sticker looks pretty cool.
Feb 25, '10
Here is one NAV who will not vote for Dr. No. Did it back in the 90's. No need to repat that.
7:05 p.m.
Feb 25, '10
Silver makes the point that early polls say more about the opponent, and neither of these guys is doing well. it's too early for either confidence or despair, but the polls have to make the Kitz campaign feel reasonably happy.
Yeah that was a really good post on 538. Might be a little nit-picky of me but I don't really think Nate made that argument though:
Finally, although this is not apparent from the graph itself, it does appear to be the case that the incumbent's share of the vote is a better predictor of the final voting margin than the challenger's share.
[...]
This may suggest that the opponent's vote share provides little additional informational value once the incumbent's vote share is known.
My point being that the poll doesn't really say much about either challenger, especially since they have essentially the same results. Simply that Kitz is in a good position early in the race (though I suspect it's more complicated than assuming all of the effects of incumbency will apply to him). Seems more like a Generic Republican vs John Kitzhaber matchup.
Feb 25, '10
Given the number of NAV in this state (and the number of people--not all young---who rely on cell phone as their only phone and are thus less likely to be polled) I find it hard to believe that over 30% of Willamette Valley voters are really died in the wool Dudley or Alley voters. More likely generic Republicans or recognize the names.
I think Kitzhaber has run a better campaign than Bradbury.
Feb 25, '10
Has Kitzhaber been running a campaign? I've seen him attending a few events, but not much. Bradbury is all over the place, but as the underdog, that's what he has to do.
That said, I think Kitzhaber is clearly a stronger candidate. For all the problems some people have with his previous terms, a lot of other people really like him. I remember when I was canvassing for Kroger in the primary, all I had to tell people to get them to vote Kroger was that Kitzhaber had endorsed him. And that he polls well outside of the Willamette Valley shouldn't surprise- remember in 1998 when he ran for re-election against Sizemore, I think Sizemore only won one county, and that by only a handful of votes.
I don't know if I want any of the candidates to be the next governor, but I have no doubt Kitzhaber can trounce the Republican nominee. John Kitzhaber is perhaps the only real titan in contemporary Oregon politics.
Feb 26, '10