Who is Speaking for You? Current Voter Turn-Out on Measures 66 and 67
Kristin Teigen
We are down to the last days of a fight to protect funds for our schools, social services, and for public safety. By voting YES on Measures 66 and 67, we are asking that the corporate minimum tax be raised for the first time since 1931, to $150 from a meager $10, and for couples making over $250,000 to see a modest uptick in their tax rate. We’re in a fight for tax fairness, for the quality of our state’s infrastructure and for our children’s future. It is vitally important and will help define what Oregon will be for decades to come.
So, how is the vote going? Right now, only 40% of all ballots are in. It needs to be higher. Much, much higher.
What is a bigger concern, though, is what’s going on in the more progressive counties. Multnomah County, with the highest number of Democrats in the state, has a turn-out far lower than the rest of the state, with just 36% of the ballots in. In contrast, over 86% of Multnomah County citizens voted in the 2008 presidential election. Only one county, Morrow, with its 4,700 registered voters, has a lower turn-out -- 31%.
Just as disheartening is the turn-out in three more of Oregon’s most progressive counties. Washington County beats Multnomah’s turn-out by a mere .6%, and Lane County’s is 39%. In Benton County, which had the state's highest percentage of votes in favor of Obama, it’s a bit better with 41%, but still, not enough.
In contrast, Harney County, the most conservative county in the state, where Republican presidential candidates have garnered over 70% of the vote for decades, the turn-out is at 48%.
In Grant County, where citizens have passed Far Right ballot measures like the one denouncing the UN as a global conspiracy, the turn-out is 44.6%. And the over-all state winner for turn-out right now, out of 36 counties, is Crook County at 51%, where John McCain won 62% of the vote.
To be sure, there are courageous, progressive voters in these more conservative counties. If those who live in more Democratic areas don’t vote, we’re just letting those folks down. And it hasn’t always been this way -- in the 2006 and 2008 elections, the turn-out percentage (not just the numbers) of the progressive counties outranked that of the more conservative ones.
So, who is speaking for you? Please get your ballots in by Tuesday at 8pm. Here is a list of ballot drop-off sites. Even better, contact the Defend Oregon campaign and help with get out the vote efforts. What are you waiting for?
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connect with blueoregon
2:07 p.m.
Jan 24, '10
Remember the Oregon Republican Party has used the Chamber of Commerce in your town or city to invite Republicans to phone bank. The Ex, Director of the largest Chamber in the state (Jackson County) sent out e-mails to every Chamber member begging them to phone bank for the Republicans and help defeat M66/67. The contact information provided is the Republican Party of Oregon.
Sure hope the Jets win and we can get back to phone banking.
Jan 24, '10
Kristin Teigen posted: To be sure, there are courageous, progressive voters in these more conservative counties.
Courageous? Oh, come on...
2:37 p.m.
Jan 24, '10
Having been raised in a rural, conservative area, I can say that it does take courage to speak up when vastly outnumbered.
Jan 24, '10
Who is Speaking for [Me]?
No one.
For the past thirty years each successive American president has unveiled an ostensible plan to eliminate nuclear weapons, if none before now has received the Nobel Peace Prize while in office. Each in turn then escalated reckless arms buildups and armed aggression abroad in an effort to achieve global military dominance. The current U.S. commander-in-chief with his foreign policy entourage of Robert Gates, James Jones and Hillary Clinton is no exception.
Jan 24, '10
Even more courageous are the volunteers out there knocking on doors in McCain country.
Jan 24, '10
paulie, sorry but the Jets lost. I too was hoping for a miracle.
Here's the deal, the diaffected 20 somethings are staying away in substantial numbers. They are no longer engaged as they feel let down. It has turned out to be politics as usual as the progressive left misread, misinterpreted and misled. The dems base has shrunk and they are staying away from this vote.
Barring an unprecedented surge in the next 2 days low turnout means that the measures fail.
3:32 p.m.
Jan 24, '10
Kristen,
...and thanks for your help on the ground, too. GOTV takes everyone.
Richard, if we can't make the effort here to get our voters out for these measures, we have no forum, no soapbox and no credibility to make a stand on other issues. We can rant endlessly about how DC-types let us down, but unless we prove we are willing to work for change exactly WHERE we can effect it, the text through cyber space is only an indulgence on the part of those that can string a few sentences together in semi-coherent fashion.
I will repeat this often over the next 2 days... Folks, get your a___ out there and work for this!!!
www.voteyesfororegon.org
YES HQ (PDX) 503-234-0444
Jan 24, '10
10 more NO's being delivered Tuesday IE: Election Day.
Go Vikes!
Jan 24, '10
I'm surprised at the number of folks that are breaking for Vote No. Most folks agree: we need to fund schools and services. But many are genuinely surprised to learn that Oregon employers are the primary source of funding for education and state services through the Oregonians they employ. And when you chronicle Oregon's persistent joblessness for them, it really makes an impression.
We all want to protect education and social services. The best way to accomplish that is through private-sector job creation. Vote No on Measure 66 and 67 so we can start rebuilding Oregon's economy and protecting both education funding and social services.
Defend Oregon Jobs. Defend Oregon Services. Vote No.
Vikes score first!
Jan 24, '10
Somehow saying "no" (by voting "yes") to the right wing, out of state bandwagon, doesn't exactly feel like having my say.
If the Vikings win the Superbowl, I'll definitely know that I have lived too long. The Cubs I can handle once every century, but the Vikes...
4:05 p.m.
Jan 24, '10
So Ralph, you and your pals have any kids? Ever call the cops or the County Mounties?
Do you have a clue that right now Oregonians in the lowest earning bracket pay the highest percentage of their income into state and local taxes (8.7%)? The wealthiest come in at about 6-6.1%
Where do you fit in the mix, Ralphie?
Are you earning that cool 1/4 mill a year? Is that extra 15 bucks/month per 10 K earned OVER that 1/4 mill gonna take away that nice glass of scotch?
Or do you just plan on being rich someday and think you are protecting your future assets?
Or have you bought that horse manure shoveled out by the NO campaign... that scary doomsday scenario of that hapless baker (sole proprietor in Auburn, CA)? Poor thing, IF she incorporates, her taxes will increase a whole not-quite 12 bucks a month.
Ironic, isn't it? Corporations that have skated with this stupid-a**^#! 10 dollar minimum for almost 80 years may be able to buy their way out of future accountability by filling Ralph and the boys' heads full of drivel.
4:12 p.m.
Jan 24, '10
There is valid concern that Multno/Wash/Clack are falling further behind state turnout, although they typically are a little below or at state average.
But let's not get carried away about Harney County and some of the other higher turnout/lower registration counties. Without getting too precise, Harney has about 4,200 voters, so every percentage point is worth 42 votes. If it's 60/40 for NO, that's an additional 17-18 NO votes.
For Multnomah, where there are 425,000 voters, each percentage point is worth 4,250 votes. Say--very generously, I think, given the wide partisan skew in Multno--that it's 60/40 yes. That's about 1700 net YES votes for every percentage point of turnout.
1,700 > 17. Obviously, all turnout is not created equal. Harney would need to turn out 100% in 36 cumulative elections in order to match the 36% turnout rate in Multno. And of course, turnout will be higher after Monday and Tuesday, when at least another 20% will come in you have to figure.
There are lots of Harneys across the state of course, and overall turnout will be a factor. But far more important than the turnout in bluer counties will be the splits in WashCo and Clackamas. Those are really the only classically "suburban" counties in the state, based on needing a large city to surround, of which there's only one of in Oregon.
4:20 p.m.
Jan 24, '10
Geezuz Think,
You are pointing at the present and trying to say it's because of future "wrongs"! We have been playing Oregon's version of supply-side economics, and guess what, IT HASN'T WORKED! Where ARE those bloomin' private sector jobs?!
...and this is about the most ironic statement I've read on the "NO" side:
"We all want to protect education and social services. The best way to accomplish that is through private-sector job creation. Vote No on Measure 66 and 67 so we can start rebuilding Oregon's economy and protecting both education funding and social services."
Is this your commercial for private schools or what? Underfunding schools MEANS job loses.. teachers administrators, coaches and all kinds of folk that serve Oregonian kids directly. Underfunding health services means that clinics that directly serve elderly patients on tight fixed incomes will go out of operation.
What are you going to do, Think, build your own private clinics and schools? Oh, but wait a minute, folks will than have to pay for those services....
Jan 24, '10
Want to know why conservatives are voting and we are not? Because most humans are more motivated by the negative than by the positive. Their rage, venom, self pity - and their bible verses parsed out to say that they are god's chosen adn are being treated in a terrible way everywhere they go... they are gonna rule this world, that's my current thought.
An example: last week, whilst bantering with a coworker who accidentally got Teabagger trash in her google search for the medical/health parity laws in our state... I teased her about going down the Teabagger rabbit hole and never coming back because there's a lot going on and so on... a fundamentalist coworker who assumed she knew what I was saying ranted at me, shouting at me, basically, in the workplace. I was sick to my stomache, tried to turn back to my computer and not answer, and she shouted some more! I was sickened physically. She spat out the word "liberal" with the same venom you find for "Fuck", and "rapist" and "molester", and "dog shit". Like that. Pure vicious rage and disdain. She further went on to rage about people's assumptions, and rage at how where she works she perceives she dare not say what she thinks and is in the minority. This apparently has her in a vicious rage day to day.
I am brand new there. I was talking about the vagaries of following a google thread into the great-nowhere if you are not careful. SHE heard some dogshit eating Libberull saying something about her ilk! Sigh.
So I responded after a while that HER assumptions as to who I am were pretty far off and had nothing to do with her knowing anything about ME. I explained to her how I was a disliked or ignored gadfly up here during the election, because I felt the intellectual dishonesty of BO writers who refused to continue researching the lies and slippages of their favorite politicians, while ONLY posting on and opining on those politicians they did not like. So I took on the job of researching BOTH and always writing about ours, since none of "you" would do it for us. I also described to her the raging venom of a coworker Obama-maniac when I worked at CareOregon, and how I dared not ever raise even a conversational question-mark in his general direction if I did not want some really pointed malice sent this way. It was that personal to this woman.
The POINT: I'm as likely to hold YOU to something as I am the people I feel are not my political allies.
She only half-ass listened. But my point was that she assumed a lot about me when her thinking only was referential to herself; and jumped into a conversation having nothing to do with her itchy fundie conservatism.... I went home feeling sick and scared from that, I will tell you.
"They" are voting. Make no mistake. They are zealots as we can never be. I sure wish the Rapture would hurry the hell up and come. Because either I or the fundies just really need to be taken out of here.
4:51 p.m.
Jan 24, '10
"Tax" is a nasty, ugly word that at best invokes a visceral response. Anti tax folks have a leg up long before any campaign begins. Corporate money, whether it's from the beer guys, big tobacco or NIKE, is always willing to shell out the bucks to save them from future obligations and responsibilities. ...and so many citizens gleefully jump on the anti-tax bandwagon mistakenly thinking that they're saving themselves.
But tax is ultimately a lousy word for a good thing... a real investment into our whole Oregon community... into PUBLIC schools where All Oregon kids have a shot at an education, into safety services like fire and police protection, into the whole gamut of things that make communities communities.
Without such investments there would be no parks, few street lights and lousy pavement (you think it's bad now?!)
Private industry cannot be relied on to make these investments voluntarily. It's not that business is bad - we have great progressive business leaders in Portland who do really give back to the community. It's that by Law, corporations have first obligation to their investors; a corporation EXISTS to make money, not to be a community partner.
It is the role of government (remember that "We the People" thing?) to ensure that members of the community, be they businesses or individuals, invest into that community... after all, those community members (again, businesses and individuals) draw benefits from being in that community.
So, folks, we can argue about tax percentages, about spending, and about accountability, but when it comes right down to it, shouldn't the folks that benefit from being in this state - from doing business with our citizens - also be asked to invest in this state?
Jan 24, '10
KC, I have been self employed for over 30 years. NO W2's. I pay ALL, both portions of social security. I pay a huge property tax in a very modest home because I am paying for the building of new public schools.
My business pays taxes as well. You think I only pay $10?
I just paid $86 to register 45 year old vehicle. Used to be half that.
I have paid for private schools for children as well as college.
There's more but hows by you?
"Ralphie"
Jan 24, '10
Ralph, I am so happy for your children to receive an education sequestered away from the sweaty masses. Maybe you need to PROTECT the existence of those sweaty schools full of sweaty masses for the sake of your grandchildren? Think of it as a donation to life as you prefer it to be.
In Chile, they just build walls around their homes with glass shares and razor wire embedded in the concrete.
Jan 24, '10
SHARDS. That was to be shards. Damned house is so cold. Keeping electric off a lot. Makes typing a challenge when all fingers feel like cocktail sausages!
Jan 24, '10
Last month, an additional 13,000 Oregonians simply gave up looking for work because Oregon employers cannot afford to bring on addition employees.
Tim Duy, an adjunct assistant professor and director of the Oregon Economic Forum in the Department of Economics at the University of Oregon said the decline in the work force highlights "how deep a hole we're really in."
As employment declines, so does state tax receipts. It's the classic vicious cycle: Fewer employers in business... employers with fewer employees... leading to fewer taxes collected for education and services.
How can it make sense to cripple Oregon's economic engine even further by imposing $733,000,000 in new, retroactive and permanent taxes on Oregon's businesses and individual employers?
Jan 24, '10
TO--you and Prof. Duy should show up at the legislature next month and see how things are done.
Republican state senators don't agree on whether there is enough money in reserve funds.
Perhaps you believe that the legislature should have cut more out of state budgets. The votes weren't there to do that. Why not go to the transparency website, http://www.oregon.gov/transparency/.
study the budget, and then contact legislators based on the specific cuts you support.
Or run for office yourself with Prof. Duy as your economics advisor.
But keep in mind that the "all cuts budget" had trouble attracting support even when the Republicans controlled the legislature. Lots of legislators don't like to talk about what cuts they support even if they oppose taxes.
Oregon is required to have a balanced budget. That means either revenue or budget cuts.
Jan 24, '10
@ThinkOregon: If $150 minimum tax breaks the bank, how do you propose you're going to meet payroll next week? Assuming one full time employee at a living wage, that's $600/week...
Jan 24, '10
LT ... There are more than a few Oregon Senators who disagree with you. And I believe that citing the limitations of process is simply the tyranny of the weak. I believe it's malfeasance to say "we're sorry, Oregon has enough money, but process prevents us from using it to help you." But you go ahead and recite that line if you want to.
Here's one possible approach out of many alternatives: Oregon Budget
Jan 24, '10
Paul Johnson... I wrote this post just for you:
Measures 66 And 67: See The Forest For The Trees
9:22 p.m.
Jan 24, '10
"How can it make sense to cripple Oregon's economic engine even further by imposing $733,000,000 in new, retroactive and permanent taxes on Oregon's businesses and individual employers?"
You beg the question of whether there's any credible evidence Oregon's economic engine will be "crippled further" by the revenue measures--particularly in comparison to a No vote.
I'll save you the time: don't quote Cascade Policy Institute.
Jan 24, '10
torridjoe:
3 independent studies; 12 Oregon economists, 20 Oregon newspapers, 1000s Oregon businesses say so. But here's ten Oregon economists:
http://www.stopjobkillingtaxes.com/storage/Economists%20paper.pdf
Quoting: "Both tax increases will slow Oregon’s recovery from the current recession and permanently damage employment growth in the state."
Jan 24, '10
I overheard on the MAX somebody saying that they aren't voting YES only because the Blazers aren't on the local channel.
10:35 p.m.
Jan 24, '10
Ralph,
I am a sole proprietor, & like you, self employed (for 15 years)... I put out the dollars for the feds, the state, TRI Met and the City of PDX, and yep, pay the social security, too. I even paid into those 3 years of Multnomah County taxes, which BTW, I had voted for, too.
So, you had the wear-with-all to support the private education of your kids, and you feel that it's an unfair burden to invest in public education, is that your take?
Now, I don't have an argument with folks doing all they can for their kids. But at the same time, coupling this behavior (multiplied by 1000s) with an outright refusal to invest in public education, feeds a perpetual downward cycle that essentially screws every kid who doesn't have the advantages your kids have.
Many of the wealthier among us fall into this trap, thinking that the same success that allows them to purchase an extra special education for their kids frees them from the obligation to invest in the community as a whole... which especially includes education for every kid in Oregon. It doesn't and it shouldn't, because the overall health of our public education system is part of the overall health of our community... which BTW, includes and impacts the business community.
Oh, and about those mean ol' registration fees... You should be toasting them. In Oregon, you don't have to pay sales tax on that car, and your registration fees are ONLY registration fees. Some states tax vehicles w/ property taxes, too. It should make you feel a lot better knowing that 25 years ago when I bought a new truck for 10k in Kansas, I got slammed with over 1000k in taxes... a 4 1/2 sales tax (at the time) and over $600 in property tax. Kansas, which also has state income tax, slams you every year w/ a property tax on the dang rig, too.
So $86 bucks?... chicken feed
Jan 25, '10
Posted by: rw | Jan 24, 2010 5:05:10 PM
SHARDS. That was to be shards. Damned house is so cold. Keeping electric off a lot. Makes typing a challenge when all fingers feel like cocktail sausages!
That's what plant lights are for! 600 watts of plant light is about equal to a 600 watt space heater. Thanks to this nice mild winter I've gone heat free so far. Convenient since I had to duct tape the vents to keep the TEA bagger below's smoke from filling my apartment.
Kristin Teigen oh, yeah that -- agreed. I'm beginning to like the strategy of just posting something and then letting it go...realizing that the comments aren't going to make or break an idea...
Who is Speaking for You? Current Voter Turn-Out on Measures 66 and 67 Jan 24, 2010 2:07:41 PM...Posted by: Kristin | Jan 24, 2010 2:37:58 PM
30 minutes! Is that a new record? This is why a lot don't care who is speaking. We know few are listening. How pretentious is it to make a post that is to influence opinion, while proclaiming a priori that comments won't influence your opinion? You must know so much more than your readership. Must be difficult.
Jan 25, '10
"Defend Oregon Services. Vote No."
Didn't I see you at a teabagger rally a couple months ago with a sign that read:
KEEP THE GOVERNMENT OUT OF MY MEDICARE!
I bet you're the same guy who calls 911 when the snow hits a 1/4-inch on your government paved streets complaining about the lack of snow plows and rock salt.
Jan 25, '10
"Both tax increases will slow Oregon’s recovery from the current recession and permanently damage employment growth in the state."
So your economist state that by charging businesses less that Washington or California, Oregon will now NEVER see a new employer enter the state EVER?
Wow dude, you need new economists.
10:13 a.m.
Jan 25, '10
That's what plant lights are for!
Geeze, who knew? I've always thought that plant lights were for..........
Jan 25, '10
"So your economist state that by charging businesses less that Washington or California, Oregon will now NEVER see a new employer enter the state EVER?"
Sorry Scott, but that isn't what those economists are saying. They're saying that, all else being equal, the new taxes generated from M66 and 67 will reduce employment from what it would have been otherwise, will reduce the interest of some employers to stay in the state, and will reduce the interest of new employers from entering the state.
I would hope that even those who disagree with this assessment will at least acknowledge that nobody is talking about all or nothing here.
Jan 25, '10
"I would hope that even those who disagree with this assessment will at least acknowledge that nobody is talking about all or nothing here."
Gee, Steve, I thought the message of No on 66 & 67 was that all employers would leave if the measures pass.
Except, of course, for the employers voting yes (there may be more of those than you understand).
Measure 30 folks promised employment Nirvanna if they won and jobs fleeing if they left. That fall, at a local candidate forum, someone walked up to Kim Thatcher and asked "Measure 30 was supposed to create all kinds of jobs. What do you say to the person who was unemployed when Measure 30 passed and is still unemployed?".
She literally ran away. So much for treating ordinary folks as if they deserve specific answers.
Point is, either all jobs will be killed if OAJKT loses, or their rhetoric has been over the top.
My guess is that the latter is true.
Jan 26, '10
"Gee, Steve, I thought the message of No on 66 & 67 was that all employers would leave if the measures pass."
Sorry LT, if you can't discern the difference between campaign rhetoric and economic analysis (even that which you disagree with) I don't know what to tell you.
Jan 26, '10
She only half-ass listened
Which is a hell of a lot more than Kristin and Chuck are doing. This instruct the peeps and then walk away is FUCKING INSULTING. As noted elsewhere that, plus what you say, led me to tear up my ballot. "Who speaking for You"??? Save your mom tone for your stay-at-home-fraud audience. Maybe I can find someone to screw that will allow me to stay at home with my hobby and pay for grad. school. Who says prostitution isn't legal?
8:35 a.m.
Jan 26, '10
GEez Abby,
Have a freakin' drink and listen to Yanni. You're wound up tighter than an accountant on April 14.
... and good luck on the grad school app. I sure as hell hope you're not in Communications or English lit.
Jan 26, '10
As a Republican living in Eugene, I find your statement about being a couragous voter in Clackamas county or whatever to be BS. Liberals and tax raiders are more vicious than the conservatives. People are sick of you and these terrible tax hikes. Move to Canada you stupid lady.
Jan 26, '10
Good lord the discourse in this country is retarded.
"Liberals and tax raiders are more vicious than the conservatives" followed by the inevitable "Move to Canada you stupid lady."
Another classic: "what you say, led me to tear up my ballot"
That'll show 'em!
Do they still believe in reason and dialog in Canada? Sheesh.
Jan 26, '10
replying to "abby normal" post: "Which is a hell of a lot more than Kristin and Chuck are doing. This instruct the peeps and then walk away is FUCKING INSULTING. As noted elsewhere that, plus what you say, led me to tear up my ballot. "Who speaking for You"??? Save your mom tone for your stay-at-home-fraud audience. Maybe I can find someone to screw that will allow me to stay at home with my hobby and pay for grad. school. Who says prostitution isn't legal?"
<h2>Hey Ms. Normal - what's your HATE on? You do realize your post clearly highlights your more than just a little bit o' jealousy about no one loving, caring or supporting you, your cause, or your hate? Quite easy to launch a personal attack when you are an anonymous cretin. You are the definition of cowardice. We can only hope you actually did tear up your ballot. Loser.</h2>