OR-GOV: Chris Dudley apparently knows how to raise money.
Carla Axtman
It was instructive talking with some of the members of Chris Dudley's "statewide leadership team" on Thursday. The ex-Trail Blazer and Lake Oswego Republican made a splash in the Oregon gubernatorial race by announcing that he has raised some $340,000 for his exploratory campaign.I talked with state Sens. Frank Morse of Albany and David Nelson of Pendleton, as well as former House Majority Leader Wayne Scott, R-Canby. None of them have a firm idea of where Dudley will come down on the issues, but they are all clearly filling in the blanks with their own hopefull portrait. (Dudley himself has been pretty tight-lipped).
Dudley is raising the cash in big amounts (a quick check of his campaign finance report at Orestar shows a lot of four and five--sometimes six--figure donations. A good number of those coming from out-of-state).
A couple of worthwhile pings from the Mapes piece:
1. The state level Republicans throwing cash at Dudley apparently have little to no idea where this guy stands on the issues and Dudley isn't telling. It seems kind of crazy to me to shovel money at him under these circumstances but apparently they're just that desperate.
2.Wayne Scott is a jackass. Not that anyone with institutional memory in Oregon politics doesn't already know this..but why people still go to this guy's well is beyond me. He completely throws Allen Alley under the bus:
Scott was particularly intriguing. In recent weeks, Allen Alley - the Lake Oswego businessman who has been in the GOP race since early this year - had trumpeted Scott's endorsement, releasing this statement from the former legislator:
He is the right man at the right time for Oregon. His business experience and fresh perspective are exactly what we need to get Oregon back to work.But on Thursday, Scott said he had never endorsed Alley but just "gave him a quote."
Instead, Scott said he thought that Dudley was "real intelligent" and said he had the best opportunity of "getting Oregon back on track."
Yeesh. Slimy.
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Dec 4, '09
Frank Morse and Jackie Winters (regardless of the times I have disagreed with them) are intelligent, hard working legislators whose offices deserve praise for their customer service, ability to answer questions, listen to alternative points of view.
Wayne Scott was always the opposite.
I wonder if Dudley is just collecting names of elected Republicans and doesn't realize that the good he might have done getting Morse and Winters is cancelled out by Scott.
9:50 a.m.
Dec 4, '09
I wonder if Dudley is just collecting names of elected Republicans and doesn't realize that the good he might have done getting Morse and Winters is cancelled out by Scott.
No, I think Dudley realizes that the key to winning a Republican nomination AND a general election is to appeal to all elements of the Republican Party and plus independents and moderate Democrats. Just appealing to the latter two and ignoring the first is a good way not to make it out of the primary.
Politics is about addition, which means adding different groups, perspectives and interests into a winning coalition. It is not about division, setting one faction against another until all that is left is a minority of a minority.
Dec 4, '09
Jack:
Politics is about raising money. Politics is about spending it on message. I agree with you regarding appealing to the widest possible base. I wonder how many moderate dems CD will flip in the General. Let the polling begin.
10:05 a.m.
Dec 4, '09
No, I think Dudley realizes that the key to winning a Republican nomination AND a general election is to appeal to all elements of the Republican Party and plus independents and moderate Democrats.
And if you don't tell them where you stand on any of the issues...but just wear a smile and your former-Blazer cred, apparently that's reaching out.
I'm curious to see how far that will get him.
Dec 4, '09
Ron Saxton also raised a lot of money...
Dec 4, '09
"Chris Dudley apparently knows how to raise money."
If only he had also developed a sweet, turn-around jumper from the baseline.
Dec 4, '09
Plato, Apparently, there's no institutional memory of Dudley's foul-shooting percentage either.
Dec 4, '09
I don't know Dudley, but judging from how and where most professional athletes live, he'll be to the right of Allen Alley on taxes.
Dec 4, '09
I don't know Dudley, but judging from how and where most pro athletes live, he'll come down to the right of Allen Alley on taxes.
11:08 a.m.
Dec 4, '09
Carla, thanks for reporting on this.
Dec 4, '09
$340,000, large out of state donations, and no one knows what he stands for yet.
What a system! I hope someday I live someplace with worse, so that I can at least see some positives. Filled up one passport and haven't seen it yet. Maybe Afghanistan.
I'm beginning to think "political junkies" a lot like the mild mannered woman that goes to stock car races to see the crashes.
Dec 4, '09
Carla wrote: 'Dudley is raising the cash in big amounts (a quick check of his campaign finance report at Orestar shows a lot of four and five--sometimes six--figure donations. A good number of those coming from out-of-state).'
Well, before we go off casting aspersions - I looked at the details for all of the 'out of state' contributors in ORESTAR and for over half of them the state of the donor is erroneously coded as 'OK' rather than 'OR'... at least, I don't believe there is any Portland, OK or Lake Oswego, OK with 97xxx zip codes.
Of the legitimate out-of-state contributors - 2 are from CA, 1 from WA, 1 from OH and 1 from CT (let's not forget he graduated from Yale...) The one six-figure ($100K) contribution is from a 'sports agent' in CA - which makes one think it might be a show of support (and a little payback) from Dudley's (former?) agent. But I don't know this for a fact though...
1:09 p.m.
Dec 4, '09
Alcatross:
The SOS codes out-of-state contributions in red--which is how I looked over them when doing this initial (albeit quick and cursory) look. It's my understanding that these things are inputted by the campaigns themselves (I could be wrong about that, tho. That's just my understanding and I haven't called to check).
I think the more interesting piece here is the large chunks of money...and the quotes by supportive Republicans who clearly don't know Dudley's policy positions.
1:50 p.m.
Dec 4, '09
$340,000 for a Republican Gubernatorial bid in Oregon? It may be more productive to actually set that money on fire. That way, at least ya'll will be warm.
Dec 4, '09
Carla commented: 'The SOS codes out-of-state contributions in red--which is how I looked over them when doing this initial (albeit quick and cursory) look. It's my understanding that these things are inputted by the campaigns themselves'
Carla, it could be - not trying to slam anybody. But we both know the old 'out-of-state contributions' label frequently trundled out here at BO carries certain connotations. Just trying to 'keep it real', as they say.
As far as the contributions... well, I suspect Chris Dudley made a good deal of money during his 16 year NBA career. The guy has 2 degrees (Economics and PoliSci) from Yale and he's been involved in professional wealth management for 3 years - so it's also likely he's handled his NBA money wisely. Plus he's been active in various charitable causes in the Portland community for over 12 years. Add these to his name recognition and popularity as a former Blazer, it stands to reason he's got a lot of friends (most who probably aren't poor) and built up a reservoir of good will in Portland...
Given above, I don't understand your surprise that he's got some significant financial backing early on like this - mostly from people who know and evidently like him. (The name of his committee is 'Friends of Chris Dudley', after all...)
I'll also note that this isn't Dudley's first go-around successfully raising money - he's raised over $1M for people with diabetes through his Dudley Foundation.
What Dudley's policy positions are and whether he'd make a good governor, I have no idea. But the former will come out should he choose to run and the voters will then decide whether they support him or not.
(BTW, Bill Bradley, another former Ivy Leaguer (Princeton) and NBA player didn't have an undistinguished career as a politician. Especially in a state like New Jersey, I'd bet his first roster of campaign contributors included 'a good number' of 4-, 5-, and 6-figure sums from a number of well-heeled 'Friends of Bill Bradley'...)
3:28 p.m.
Dec 4, '09
Given above, I don't understand your surprise that he's got some significant financial backing early on like this - mostly from people who know and evidently like him. (The name of his committee is 'Friends of Chris Dudley', after all...)
I don't recall being "surprised" at Dudley having big $ contributors, but I think it's noteworthy. Certainly Allen Alley carries the kind of profile that one might think would land him some big fish, too. But it would seem not at the same level as Dudley, at least not yet.
I do find it curious that so many Republicans would be on board (and that Wayne Scott would throw Alley under the bus) for a guy whose positions remain essentially unarticulated.
Dec 4, '09
Well, before we go off casting aspersions - I looked at the details for all of the 'out of state' contributors in ORESTAR and for over half of them the state of the donor is erroneously coded as 'OK' rather than 'OR'... at least, I don't believe there is any Portland, OK or Lake Oswego, OK with 97xxx zip codes.
our state IT is the worse in the nation. Typical.
3:43 p.m.
Dec 4, '09
And if you don't tell them where you stand on any of the issues...but just wear a smile and your former-Blazer cred, apparently that's reaching out.
Not yet, but at least it's not offending anyone! :-)
All Dudley has to worry about not offending are the Supersonic fans . . . or, no, I guess not any more.
Dec 4, '09
His executive management resume is a bit thin. He does have some name recognition however. Just be vague, act like you know what you're going and don't offend too many people and you just might get elected to an office you're not qualified for.
Maybe we should ask some Californians how Arnold's working out for them before we elected someone because they are a 'celebrity' of sorts.
Dec 4, '09
Just a little suggestion from south of the border, electing a movie star, or sports star, or whatever to an important and senior political office may not be such a great idea. Experience in public policy and politics turns out to be important after all. The present generation of Californians learned this the hard way. Dudley may have a future in politics, but let him serve in the legislature for a couple of terms before offering the top job.
Dec 5, '09
It is virtually impossible for a non-politician to win statewide office as his first race. Gordon Smith took the smart approach. He first ran and easily won a seat in the Oregon Senate, where he served for a few years before springing for statewide office (the U.S. Senate seat). Serving in the state Legislature gave him publicity, credibility and an education in the issues and how government works (or does not work).
Chris Dudley would be well-advised to run for the Oregon Senate. He probably lives in the mostly Lake Oswego district currently represented by Richard Devlin, who barely won last time he had a credible opponent. His victory (at 51.4% of the vote)was assisted by the 2.7% drawn by the Libertarian candidate in the race.
9:55 a.m.
Dec 5, '09
For what it's worth, I think this is more than newsworthy--it surprised the hell out of me. I think Chris Dudley is a serious candidate and--throwing out my marker right here--I think he'll be the nominee. He is going to attract a great deal of attention partly just because he's new. But I think he's the only candidate who could legitimately trump the terrible GOP brand with a far more positive one: the Blazers.
If I were the Dems, I'd be gearing up for a more serious fight than they anticipated.
Dec 5, '09
Dudley for Senate:
According to the Sec. of State official results website, Devlin last ran for re-election in 2006.
50480 total votes 30963 Devlin 18299 Newell
According to my calculator, that is a bit over 61%.
Jeff: regarding "serious fight".
Among recent newcomers who had not previously held public office and ran statewide:
Lonsdale vs. Hatfield 1990: Lonsdale got something like 46% of the vote. Whatever the number it was in the 40% range and was exactly what Wayne Morse got in the 1970s when he ran against Hatfield.
Bruggere in 1996 was in a totally different situation. There were 5 minor party candidates (because voters didn't like the major party candidate choice?) and the number of 3rd party votes was larger than the margin between Smith and Bruggere. Smith ended up getting 677,336 votes and Bruggere got 624,370.
The field is not complete until Filing Day. However, based on what we have seen so far, the question is whether Dudley stands for something specific (as Lonsdale did--no doubt where he stood on issues) or just has high power support from the party but runs in simple slogans and can't fill in the details of something said in a stump speech (like Bruggere).
I don't see how Dudley reconciles having the support of Sens. Morse and Winters with the support of Wayne Scott, unless Scott has renounced bullying and the strict ideology he had in the House. "Tough on crime no new taxes" didn't win for Mannix. I doubt Dudley can come up with specifics which will please the pragmatic Morse supporters and the Scott ideologues.
1:09 p.m.
Dec 5, '09
Yeah, I'm with Jeff Allworth here. Just the fact that he has huge (and positive) name recognition in the biggest media markets gives him the advantage over the other Republicans in the primary. Couple that with some fairly serious early money and he's a serious threat to......er.....some Democrat TBD.
Dec 5, '09
Chris Dudley's candidacy should be taken seriously. There is a lot of pent up demand for something new and fresh in the Oregon GOP. Having Bill Sizemore in the news recently only highlights that factor.
Oregon's Republican primaries always seem to produce the most ultra-conservative candidates, and they are eventually crushed in the general election. Maybe they'll go for someone who is new, untarnished (so far), yet unknown. They're probably tired of getting kicked in the teeth.
If Chris Dudley is the Republican candidate, I say watch out. I could see him appealing to the large contingent of independent voters.
And as far as the Blazers connection, that is indeed a powerful brand, one that sells everywhere in the state. For many rural and suburban Oregonians, the Blazers may be the only thing they like about Portland!
I'm still rooting for Sizemore or Mannix. Is Lon Mabon still around?
Interesting comments in this thread, everyone.
Dec 5, '09
At some point Dudley will have to say what he stands for. "A fresh face" may strike some people as the old line about "buying a pig in a poke".
12:26 p.m.
Dec 6, '09
It's true that winning election as a political newcomer is a very tall order. But that doesn't mean it's impossible. I'm not making the case that Dudley is anything like a front-runner, or in a position to beat a Kitzhaber or Bradbury. But it doesn't strain my brain to imagine him beating Allen Alley.
Furthermore, I wouldn't compare Dudley to newcomers who thought they could buy enough name-recognition to win, as Lonsdale did. Rather, he's more in the celebrity candidate mold of Schwarzenegger, Franken, and Ventura--candidates who combined personal popularity and big money to get enough attention to get into the fight. Once a candidate's in the fight, anything can happen.
This news surprised me because while he had the fame (albeit of a somewhat lower wattage than Arnold or Al), he had shown nothing on the money side. Now he has, and now I'm taking notice.
Dec 6, '09
"Schwarzenegger, Franken, and Ventura--"
Arnold was a movie star married to a Kennedy (and perhaps not what Issa had in mind when he launced the recall).
Franken had the radio show, books, and people he'd campaigned for.
Ventura targeted young people by asking his kids about things they cared about, and he was invited to that debate near the election where he gave a specific answer to a question the major party candidates passed off as candidate-speak.
<h2>Yes, he could beat Alley and Lim. But to get any farther he needs more substance than being a fresh face.</h2>