Cook Report: "Very weak" Oregon GOP has "no enthusiasm" for challenging Wyden
Kari Chisholm
Over at the Cook Political Report, they've done their baseline report on the U.S. Senate race in 2010. Key excerpts:
Oregon is very difficult terrain for Republicans. Democrats hold an 11-point advantage in voter registration, 43 percent to 32 percent, while another 26 percent are unaffiliated. Republicans lost a Senate seat in 2008 when GOP incumbent Gordon Smith was defeated. ...Given Democrats’ strength and a very weak GOP bench, it’s not that surprising that no Republican has stepped forward to challenge Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden. Any Republican with statewide aspirations is more focused on the open gubernatorial contest next year. ...
Wyden has a reputation for both his ability to work across the aisle and for his independence, a rare and difficult position to maintain. And even with that ability, Wyden has managed to maintain a largely Democratic voting record. According to the National Journal vote ratings, Wyden had a liberal composite score of 76.8 in 2008, meaning that his voting record was more liberal than 76.8 percent of the Senate. His liberal composite score was also 76.8 in 2007. It was 86 in 2006 and 80.8 in 2005. ...
The March 9 filing deadline is fast approaching, but Republicans don’t seem to have any enthusiasm for recruiting a first-tier challenger to Wyden. As of September 30, Wyden had raised just over $3.4 million for the cycle and had $2.8 million in the bank.
There hasn’t been any polling to measure Wyden’s job approval ratings, but we strongly suspect that they are very healthy. Don’t expect any action here. Wyden will cruise to a third full term.
Cook is wrong about the lack of job-approval polling. SurveyUSA have been polling Wyden's job approval every month for over four years now. He's down from his January 2009 high (62/25, 37 net), but still has a 55% approval and 33% disapproval, for a 22% net.
A shorter, more concise analysis of Wyden's prospects came from GOP Congressman Greg Walden in March - when he said that the idea of running against Wyden was "totally, patently, absurd".
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Nov 19, '09
Interesting to note that Merkley is upside down in his approve/disapprove..with only 42% of Oregonians approving of the job he's doing. Given that Oregon is about as deep blue right now as it may ever be...i would say this is bad news for Merkley if he keeps cloaking himself in the ideology of the far left. Although Wyden lacks the bi-partisan credentials that Smith had, he certainly works across the aisle a heck of a lot better than Merkley does (which explains Wyden's higher approval rating)...perhaps if Jeff wants to have a shot at a second term, he should use the remainder of this term to ditch the hyper-partisan voting record and work more closely with the GOP...but based on his record in the legislature, I won't hold my breath for that...
Nov 19, '09
Do I sense another Kevin Mannix bid in the making?
12:23 p.m.
Nov 19, '09
Full disclosure: My firm built Ron Wyden's campaign website, but I speak only for myself.
1:01 p.m.
Nov 19, '09
JJ: if Jeff wants to have a shot at a second term, he should use the remainder of this term to ditch the hyper-partisan voting record and work more closely with the GOP
Concern troll is concerned.
What should Senator Merkley do, precisely, to work with the GOP? Attend a Palin book signing? Start screaming about how President Obama is really a Kenyan? Torpedo health care reform?
The GOP is wandering the wilderness right now, ranting insane polemics about lies they've pulled out of their rear end. Senator Merkley's numbers will go up as Democrats continue to fix the economy (although clearly, it is taking a long time to repair it after the beating it took under the GOP).
Nov 19, '09
Senator Merkley is the new guy on the Senatorial block. I think it's way too early to assess him any grade whatsoever as it applies to his job performance. If he is seen by the Right as "Too-Left", (but I mean who isn't these days?) it doesn't mean he won't be re-elected.
To beat him they will have to find someone who is from the reality based universe and frankly, to be a republican these days, it seems to be an absolute requirement that you start out each and every morning by eating a huge heaping bowl of crazy-flakes.
Acid casualties in the Johnson Unit make more sense than what we've gotten from the republican party lately.
Nov 19, '09
Has anyone checked how much of the disapproval rating is because Wyden or Merkley are perceived as too right rather than too left? Or are we just assuming anyone who disapproves is a righty?
6:57 p.m.
Nov 19, '09
I don't like the NJ ratings; they cherry pick. Dr Poole's rank ordering is superior IMO, for the 111th so far they have both of our Senators right next to each other, making up the back end of the top 25% most liberal Senators. For the 110th, Wyden was 25th most liberal. It's interesting to see Durbin top the list; I don't think I've seen him near the top before. He was 15th in the 110th.
All that said, Wyden will cruise in 2010.
Nov 19, '09
I favored Novick in the primary, but am more than satisfied with Merkley. He got the job done against GS, and has been a reliable vote and strong advocate for health care reform. If indeed his approval ratings are low, and if this is some residue of the primary, please let's get over it.
12:34 a.m.
Nov 20, '09
Has anyone checked how much of the disapproval rating is because Wyden or Merkley are perceived as too right rather than too left? Or are we just assuming anyone who disapproves is a righty?
Well, SurveyUSA doesn't ask respondents why they disapprove or approve. But they do offer crosstabs. You have to dig into the individual results.
Among liberals, Wyden's gone from 69/18 in January to 75/15 in September. In other words, his approval among liberals climbed - even as his approval overall dropped.
Among conservatives, Wyden's gone from 46/39 in January to 41/50 in September. So, he's gone from a net +7 to a net -9 among conservatives.
Unrelated, but interesting: SurveyUSA reports that roughly a quarter of Oregon voters call themselves conservative and a quarter call themselves liberal - while roughly 40% of voters call themselves Democrats and 29% Republicans.
Nov 20, '09
"Unrelated, but interesting: SurveyUSA reports that roughly a quarter of Oregon voters call themselves conservative and a quarter call themselves liberal - while roughly 40% of voters call themselves Democrats and 29% Republicans."
So, half don't choose one of the 2 ideological labels, and the number not choosing a major party is closing in on 1/3?
Squares with the people I know who are just ordinary voters and not activists.
4:53 p.m.
Nov 20, '09
Also squares with the people I know who don't even know who Ron Wyden and Jeff Merkley are.
Nov 21, '09
Kari, that was an interesting poll, but I always wonder about the pigeon holes.
Where would I fit in? I'm an evangelical hedge fund manager, work managing my father in law's rental properties and a .com , vote Libertarian, believe in intelligent design, teach quantum physics , a virtuoso pianist, professional weather forcaster, and self identify as a progressive. I have twice as many followers on twitter , as I follow.
These are stable factors, too. All describe me since adolescence. The only exception would be evangelical Christianity. You don't break into real estate and get to marry the owner's daughter unless you're military and/or evangelical, and I'm not taking a bullet for piece and kush.
For the record, I can't tell where Wyden stands. I live in Stockton, CA, and Madame Fined Stein is more than I can keep up with. His stand on the environment is a little hard core, but, up to my eyebrows in degenerate crack heads, I have been very supportive of his stances in the War on Drugs. He has a better record supporting the DEA and Federal policy than Senators from states with much more restrictive drug laws.
Nov 21, '09
Posted by: Scott Jorgensen | Nov 19, 2009 12:22:47 PM
Do I sense another Kevin Mannix bid in the making?
Nothing is all bad. I'm glad I got rid of my TV in 2004, and the #1, far and away abiding factor was that I couldn't stand seeing his face one more time. Shauna Parsons was a close second.
Back then he represented Oregon Reps at the highest levels . People forget his presence at the 2004 convention in NY. Letterman put it best:
And the No. 1 thing Kevin Mannix did while in New York City:
Nov 21, '09
"For the record, I can't tell where Wyden stands. I live in Stockton, CA, "
Which means you won't be voting in our Senate election unless you move here.
Nov 22, '09
LT, I think he betrays a trend. More and more Reps (and liberals) are looking at every local race, thinking "what do I feel about that", and then giving soft money that parties claim is earmarked for whichever side.
I've no doubt that those that will be painted as "Obama's Socialist Stooges" will be targeted by righty tighties from all over and that there are already a plethora of ways to "donate". He may not vote, but he may control the outcome more than those that only vote, without becoming involved in the process!
And as Cali crumbles, Stockton is just the kind of unlivable, unsustainable place that people flee to live in just the opposite, i.e. Oregon. Where they immediately proceed to pass measures that make it look like where they came from. Just down the road from Stockton, I hear Modesto is raising the bar by fighting a court ruling that barred prayers before council meetings. Pure barbarism, and when they flee it, they never look to their own contribution. Mind you, I would pay good money to see Sam lead a prayer before a council meeting. Once. No need to start bad habits.
Ditto a lot of immigrants, on leaving the place but not the traditions that fouled the nest.