Frank Morse is one of the few Republican politicians in Oregon that could actually win over enough NAVs and even Democrats to win in another year, but with a titan like Kitzhaber in the race, that's doubtful this year.

Morse would force Kitzhaber and Bradbury to talk about tax, kicker and initiative reforms. I'm sick and tired of the "rethink our services" b.s. - can John name specifics? The claim is so, so, Republican - focusing on the spending side.

Kari, probably not this one. There are not enough moderates left in the Republican Party for him to win a three or more way race, I think.

Let Morse run. It just means we'll pick up the Corvallis Senate seat easily.

Morse seems like the best of a bad lot, but given today's Republican Party, the mere fact that he chooses to stick an (R) on his name automatically makes his integrity suspect. How often did he really vote against the Palin-American position in this year's legislative session? If he wants to lower taxes, does that mean he'll de-fund the schools, close the prisons and fire the police, or eliminate popular services? Because anyone who promises to "cut taxes" is really promising at least one of those three things.

Meanwhile... our current Gov is speaking again today on "green issues" and "creating a sustainable future" (yawn). Last I heard from him he was parading out some electric cars. Come on, we are all concerned about the environment, but there has to be something more to running this state.

A lot of people underestimated Frank Morse when he ran for State Senate in 2002. I wouldn't underestimate his ability to defeat John Kitzhaber, particularly if Kitzhaber comes across as the past. Now if DeFazio ran I think DeFazio would be very hard to beat by anyone.

I don't have a good sense of what it would take for Morse to win the Republican primary, but I have heard that a lot of Rs are distrustful of Allen Alley (he has no track record, we have no idea what he stands for). Jason Atkinson has a track record, but he'd be a weak general election candidate. I would think that Rs would like the fact that Morse has experience running a successful business.

I watched the Kitzhaber video, and didn't learn what his campaign priorities are. It's still just some feel good blather about bringing people together, etc. with no specifics at all.

Kitzhaber is entitled to talk about his WWII veteran father and the "greatest generation." But lots of folks, Democrats, Republicans, and non-affiliated voters, have such connections (my father was a bomber pilot in European theater, one uncle went in on D-Day plus 9, another uncle served in artillery unit in Italy). Sure, we get it. But that does nothing to convince me Kitzhaber has the best plan to govern Oregon in 2011.

Campaign pitches at voter's emotions are nothing new. But they don't answer how Kitzhaber would stabilize K-12 school funding (something he apparently said he would do when he was governor, but didn't), or put people back to work. I sure hope we see something more than shallow feel good ads from him in the future.h

Kari---are you going to do the website of more than one Dem. Gov. primary candidate?

When is John going to have actual issue statements on his website and not just introductory statements?

And as for this: "There are not enough moderates left in the Republican Party for him to win a three or more way race, I think."

Oh, past preformance predicts future results and the only people who vote in primaries are those who have voted in past primaries?

If Kitzhaber and Bradbury can't get more specific fairly quickly, or if that primary descended into brainless nastiness, if Alley and Atkinson looked either like airheads or wanting only the votes of the ideologically pure, my guess is that people of the NAV (and perhaps small party) persuasion, along with those who have long wished for 2 intelligent parties, might register R just to vote for Morse.

Have the folks here already forgotten that Hillary Clinton was assumed to be the D nominee for president from the moment she declared to the Iowa caucuses?

I've been involved in "impossible" primaries which ended up quite differently--from a 59% victory to a loss in a recount. To say that voters will act in a particular way takes the risk that individual voters take an "I'll show you! approach and decide to vote in a way that blows predictions out of the water.

I like the comments of D4Morse. I respect Frank Morse in many ways, no matter how many times I have disagreed with his vote on particular issues.

Morse in the race means Alley's not getting out of single digits. Lim gets even less than Alley. All of this is great news for Atkinson who will draw large numbers of gun toting, tax cutting, born again wing nuts who come out in force during the primary. Maybe it's close but my take is Atkinson will prevail.

I don't see how Frank Morse could possibly win a primary, unless he were THE moderate and there were two or three conservatives. The opposite dynbamic seems to be shaping up.

IN response to Admiral Naismith, Morse's senate seat is not just a COrvallis seat and will not be easy to win, no more than it was in '02 when Morse won by 10% in a race strongly contested by both parties. Morse's opponent, Barbara Ross, was an outstanding state rep for Corvallis, as is Sara Gelser. Howver, the district inlcudes much of rural Linn/Benton counties, which are conservative, and Albany, which leans R.

Grant, about this:

"I don't see how Frank Morse could possibly win a primary, unless he were THE moderate and there were two or three conservatives. The opposite dynbamic seems to be shaping up."

If Frank Morse and Max Williams are the definition of moderate, which other Republicans do you see running as moderates? That is what you meant, isn't it--multiple moderates running?

BTW, I think Sara is a better legislator than Barbara Ross.

Grant, if you look at party registration in the district, it's about 3:2 Democratic. It's about 32,000 Democrats to 23,000 Republicans. A number of Democratic state senators would be so lucky to have such a Democratic district. Were Senator Morse to opt not to run for re-election, a Democrat would get the seat almost certainly.

Conner,

I don't dispute your numbers, but party performance is a different story. Linn Co's last Democrat legislator was Mae Yih, who voted with the Republicans most of the time. Linn is like Coos and other timber areas used to be, with a fairly good industrial base that I'm guessing has about the highest union density of any place outside of Mult or Lane Counties. Social liberals they are not. I think the small D reg. edge in Linn disappeared about ten years ago, but Rs had been winning there for a good decade before that, maybe longer. Ultra conservative R Rep. Betsy Close won there three times, (98,'00,'02), however narrowly, and her predecessor and successor was/is a conservative R.

Benton, an R stronghold through the 60s has been solidly D for 20 years now. Barbara Ross won there in '02 but Morse won by a much bigger margin in Linn, partly because his family business is a big employer and gave him a good narrative, but partly because of the clear R performance edge.

I have no doubt that a D like Sara Gelser could win Senate Dist. 8, but it could be a tough race.

I would also add that I think Morse is potentially a strong general election candidate for Governor, with more substance that Rs like Atkinson or Walden.

I don't know, guys. Even little ol' Linn County only has about 75% of their voters registered in the 2 major parties as of the August numbers (last available on Sec. of State website).

NAV roughly 20%, small named parties and "other" another 5%.

And here's a radical idea---not everyone votes party label.

I remember when Linn County elected a Democratic county commissioner. He wasn't a Portland liberal, he was a young man of Linn County who actually went out and talked to people. Road crews came up as an issue and he talked about actually visiting every road crew in the county. Nothing ideological about that. He was a friend of a friend and I went to one of his campaign events. He won by less than 100 votes. Were those all Democrats?

Grant, having followed Barbara Ross way back in the days when she ran for Congress, could it possibly be that voters didn't just react to "a good narrative" but also to "having known both these people for a long time, I know which one I believe is best for the job"?

Connor, from what I saw of the August registration numbers, the difference between the 2 major party registrations looked more like 2,000 or less.

LT, you must have been looking at Linn County's numbers instead of the senate district's. The senate district's numbers from August were 31,552 Democrats, 22,659 Republicans. Half of the district is Sara Gelser's house district in Corvallis and Philomath, which has 17,467 Democrats, and 8,485 Republicans, the Albany-Linn County half of the district is nearly split down the middle, with 14,085 Democrats, 14,174 Republicans.

In other words, the Linn side is pretty much a draw in terms of registration (and note, it doesn't include all of Linn County. I don't know why you two are talking so much about Linn, as it makes up only about half the district), and Sara's district provides the entire Democratic advantage in the senate district at about 9,000 D Party members. The senate district should be a very winnable for a mainstream Democrat. It is bluer than a lot of Democratically held districts, like Martha Schrader's and the North Coast district, which IIRC both have about a 6,000 Democratic registration advantage.

here are the numbers

Wayne is up there on that hill in South Eugene rolling over in his grave...

I think another R is going to throw his hat in the ring and make things interesting.

<h2>Well, you don't see it much- certainly not from me- but kudos to our current CEO, for proclaiming October "adopt a shelter animal" month! </h2>