SurveyUSA's first poll in the Oregon Governor's race (or why it sucks to be Allen Alley)
Carla Axtman
This morning, KATU and Survey USA released a poll on the Oregon Governor's race. Polling and data of this nature aren't generally a part of my wheelhouse, so I'll leave it to bigger brains than mine to do an in-depth assessment of the numbers. Also, the poll glaringly leaves out Brian Clem and Steve Novick, although I really don't know how much the numbers move with those two in the mix.
Kitzhaber
Favorable:33%
Unfavorable:33%26%
Neutral:26%
No Opinion: 15%
Kulongoski
Favorable:31%
Unfavorable:40%
Neutral:21%
No Opinion:8%
Alley
Favorable: 8%
Unfavorable:10%
Neutral:31%
No Opinion:51%
Bradbury
Favorable:21%
Unfavorable:20%
Neutral:33%
No Opinion:26%
If you're one of those who is all about the cross-tabs and deeper numbers, view them here.
A number of things stand out to my political eye:
Allen Alley is a cypher. NOBODY knows who this guy is. He's just come off a statewide campaign for Treasurer in 2008. Not to mention his walking tour of the least populated parts of the state. Not even his own party members seem to know who he is. Total FAIL.
Kulongoski's unfavorables are quite high. Republicans (shock) really don't like him. But independents (not the party..just the unD's and unR's) aren't in big love with him either.
On the other hand, Kitzhaber is relatively popular among liberals and Democrats, but lags behind with younger voters.
Bradbury seems to be relatively unknown. Interesting, given that he's run for the U.S. Senate (2002) and has only been out of the Secretary of State position for a few months.
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Sep 2, '09
Why don't we ask Kurt Shrader to weigh in? He's such a wonderful representative for our state NOT!
9:02 a.m.
Sep 2, '09
FYI - Kitzhaber is 33 Fave / 26 Unfave... not 33/33 as written.
9:15 a.m.
Sep 2, '09
Oops...I goofed that up when putting in the numbers. Thanks for that catch, Ben. I'll fix it.
Sep 2, '09
Just because Alley is not well-known does not mean that its automatically a bad thing...in this political environment where establishment political figures are experiencing an increasingly negative sentiment, i.e; Bradbury and Kitzhaber, it could potentially be a good thing for Alley. If Oregonians, in particular Independents are moved to vote on change and really shake things up...Alley may be their man.
Now I am democrat and I won't be voting for Alley or any Republican. but when I look at the Governors race, I see a slim possibility that democrats may be trouble even if Kitzhaber runs...I hope not, but when Oregon's economy is as bad as it is, I think there's room for pushback against the party in charge.
Lastly, I would of liked to see number on both Novick and Atkinson...
Sep 2, '09
"Bradbury seems to be relatively unknown. Interesting, given that he's run for the U.S. Senate (2002) and has only been out of the Secretary of State position for a few months."
Seems to me this shows how little constant sniping by insiders/activists can add to long term name familiarity.
Even though some districts (think Kim Thatcher in Dist. 25) were drawn in ways that made campaigning very uphill for Democrats, from redistricting until he left office there was GOP sniping about the way the district lines were drawn.
To the point of an anti-GOP joke from the day Kate Brown took the oath of office, "Hey, guys, Kate Brown is now Sec. of State and Bradbury is out of office--you'll need to find a new target for your animosity!"
Looking at the 4 numbers is fascinating. Half have no opinion about Alley and of those who do most are neutral or unfavorable. The former Gov. has an equal number of neutral and unfavorable and the 2nd lowest "no opinion" after the current Gov.
Of course, polls are just a snapshot in time and only represent those polled ("this is what Oregonians think" is always stretching the results of a poll too far) but this is interesting.
Sep 2, '09
Young people don't know much about Kitz? Of course they don't. Today's 18 year old was 3 years old when Dr. Kitz was first elected. Today's 30 year old was only 15.....jeez why would they know anything. One of many factors that will make this interesting.
Sep 2, '09
A few thoughts:
For a no name during the Treasurer's race, Alley faired pretty well against Westlund. It sure wasn't a landslide.
While a little more known, I'm not so sure that Bradbury has much of an advantage over Alley in the name recognition category. Also, Alley is starting his campaign way before the standard time, which is usually in September. I don't think he's a complete "FAIL" as you put it Carla, but he has a ton of work to do to make himself more known from Eugene up to Portland.
If Kitzhaber runs and wins the nomination, Republicans don't have a chance.
Sep 2, '09
Carla,
I don't think your sensationalist attack headline is appropriate.
Allen has the lowest unfavorable rating in the poll. From the poll numbers presented, I would guess that his Net Promoter Score is similar to the other candidates.
Sep 2, '09
Alley, now having run for public office, can't use that line he used in 2008, "WELL! If you want a POLITICIAN...".
He needs to come up with some good ideas to stand for. And Bradbury needs to give us his views on a variety of issues, not just verbal potshots against an opponent.
As a friend has said for many years, "when they act like that, you know they know they are losing".
What are these candidates FOR?
Sep 2, '09
I'm tired of old recycled candidates repeatedly running for Governor I mean look at all the candidates who lost in 02 that tried to take on Kulongoski in 06 it's time we had a fresh candidate I think I'll take a look at Brian Clem
Sep 2, '09
I'm so tired of recycled candidates running for Governor just look at all the candidates from 02 that tried to take Kulongoski on in 06 although I voted for Kitzhaber both times he ran it's time for some new blood I'm giving Brian Clem a look
10:50 a.m.
Sep 2, '09
Actually, none of these numbers mean much right now. Name ID is most important for the primary. In the general election, having a "D" or an "R" after your name is enough information for a lot of voters, as witness the strong races both Allen Alley and Rick Dancer ran against ostensibly better known opponents in a very, very Democratic year.
The other thing this points out is that, unless you've been a governor or U.S. Senator or longterm U.S. Representative, it is very hard to get any real name ID (which I define as the positive/negative, not just "yeah, I've heard of that person"). I can attest to that from firsthand experience.
Perceptions of a candidate's name ID or electibility often translates into money and support from insiders,campaign volunteers,etc., all of which in turn do increase a candidate's chance to win, but the idea that early name ID is essential is largely a myth.
10:50 a.m.
Sep 2, '09
so I'll leave it to bigger brains than mine to do an in-depth assessment of the numbers.
May smaller brains also apply?
Two quick thoughts: polls 15 months out have almost no utility. Polls that have TWO categories for undecideds are even more useless.
Second, I gotta disagree with Steve's analysis about Alley (as a famously terrible headline-writer, I'll stay neutral on that one). Only 18% of respondents knew enough to hazard an opinion of the guy. This for someone who has already run one statewide race. Alleyites may find solace in the low unfavorables. But they might also be panicked at the even lower unrecognizeables.
Sep 2, '09
NOBODY knows who this guy is. He's just come off a statewide campaign for Treasurer in 2008.
Ask 1000 Oregonians who WON the race for Treasurer and I bet 990 would have no clue. Not exactly a deathblow for Alley.
12:06 p.m.
Sep 2, '09
I agree with Jack Roberts' comments, especially that none of this means much.
In addition, I think the way a politician becomes familiar is to hold office and to run for office. So I encourage candidates to run to become known even if they lose.
Sep 2, '09
Dr. Kitzhaber is a Fossil. He should stop chasing vanity and enjoy the years he has left. If Gordon Smith runs and the Fossil is the dem nominee, Smith will win. What the Left needs in a candidate is a fresh face not a Good Ole Boy.
1:02 p.m.
Sep 2, '09
Kitz versus Gordon. Should be an interesting Governor's race.
Sep 3, '09
R's wont nominate Smith.
Sep 3, '09
Chicken entrails report: Gordon Smith won't run. Kevin Mannix will beat Alley in the Repub primary, and lose hugely as usual, to Kitzhaber in the general.
Sep 3, '09
I hear that the GOP will run a campaign centered on the claim that John Kitzhaber is actually a citizen of Kenya.
7:11 p.m.
Sep 8, '09
Has anyone figured out how to poll cell phones? No, seriously. This mystery demographic of young people with no land lines and only cell phones could be key in a marginal election like in the primary. The general will be a blow out. KO.
In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Kitzhaber fan.