Increases the odds that Rep. Mary Nolan or Castillo to run for Gov. Nolan's path to the Speakership is obviously blocked for the time. A strong leader last session with major connections to enviro groups, and deep pocket connections to Portland's political elite. Castillo has solid credentials...solid base in Lane County with strong name id. Either would bring serious Emily's List attention to the state. At the end of the day, you konw it won't be Clem and a bunch of other relatively unknown white guys who are running.

I wouldn't run either if I knew I'd be facing this:

http://www.youtube.com/user/endlessskyhd

Sorry, EMILY or not, I would support Clem, Kitzhaber, DeFazio, before I would support Castillo or Nolan.

Back in the days when Barbara Roberts was a member of the Parkrose School Board, I worked on a statewide primary campaign where 2 well known men were running against a feminist woman candidate. There were those who said "How dare you be a woman and be campaigning for a man?". But I never thought "women's rights" meant the right for some women to tell other women that if a woman was running they were duty bound to support the woman because there was no way any man would be more qualified.

BTW, that scenario played out in the 1986 4th Dist. Cong. Primary. People in Lane County (including some politically active women) looked at the 2 candidates from Lane County and said they had long ago decided which candidate was better suited.

"I have voted for both Peter and Margie for years, and I am convinced Peter would be a better member of Congress because..." was a statement of that belief.

Women from outside the 4th district demanding voters in that district choose Margie or admit "they don't support women" did not change the final result.

I happen to think Peter DeFazio has been an excellent member of Congress, and would consider him seriously if he decided he is tired of DC and wants to come home to Oregon.

But I am NOT going to decide how I will vote in the 2010 primary in the summer of 2009. I want to see where they all stand on issues.

What are Castillo's ideas for school funding? Should the pay of central office school district administrators be capped since the state is the major source of funding? Should those administrators be evaluated as rigorously as teachers are evaluated? Should such top administrators have a car allowance just because a district "has always done it that way" for a decade or more? Should districts be encouraged to hire top administrators from inside Oregon? Or should Oregon admit it has to hire from outside because it can't "grow its own"? Isn't the PPS Supt. a local hire?

What did Nolan learn this session about the rest of the state--wasn't she part of the Ways and Means Road Tour? What parts of the state hasn't she visited--Deschutes and Crook counties and points north and east? Coastal Oregon? Is she willing to answer questions about any of her 2009 votes in any county in Oregon?

I want the Gov. race to be about issues and vision for the future, not demographics. If EMILY money tried to push "vote for a woman Gov.", I would give them all the regard I gave Hillary for President.

It is often said the Republicans would deserve to win (strong candidate who can compete with the Democratic nominee) if they nominate someone of the quality of Atiyeh.

I attended Sec. of State Barbara Roberts' announcement for Gov. I supported her from that day forward. That doesn't mean I always agreed with her, just that I respected her. To paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen, I knew Barbara Roberts, I campaigned for her, but I don't believe either Nolan or Castillo are Barbara Roberts.

I can understand why Gov. Roberts likes Bill better than Dr. John, that doesn't mean I have to agree with her.

Uhh, why does it matter that Clem is a "white guy?"

Aside from being state superintendent of public education; what exactly has Castillo done that she would bear consideration for governor?

Thanks for your useful info, I think it’s a good topic.

Nolan is solid. Proven history as a statewide leader on choice issues, WIN-PAC, helping other women getting elected, etc. She won a close primary to serve in the House - so she can campaign. Recently, she proved herself as Majority Leader in the House - a nice contrast to a more moderate Speaker. She has good relationships with the environmental movement. Surely, she would have heavy support from Emily's List. It would be nice to have a woman candidate in the primary as strong as Nolan. Sorry to hear that Roberts will not be running - and I agree that the time has come and gone for Kitzhaber.

Anyone know about her support from labor?

If Nolan is the Democratic nominee for Governor, all the middle-of-the-road groups (Building Trades, General Contractors, law enforcements groups, etc.) will support the Republican nominee. Which is pretty much the only scenario where a Republican can win statewide in Oregon these days.

Nolan has peaked. She was narrowly elected Majority Leader and narrowly held on to her position last month.

Not gonna happen.

Well heck, I figure if the WW can still take shots at me four years after leaving office, I can at least still contribute to the political discussion. So, if I may, I would like to comment on the prospect of Mary Nolan for Governor.

Mary Nolan would be a strong candidate, she is solid on the progressive issues important to the Democratic base. However, one of the issues that cut across party lines is integrity...as a Republican, I have worked with Mary first hand, and believe her to be solid on this issue. You do not always have to agree with someone politically to believe them to be honorable or a good person, all to often we in politics forget this...

Mary, I hope my post does not hurt your chances, but you would serve well. All the best.

Derrick

@Roadster:

I highly doubt the trades or any union for that matter would endorse against Nolan if she were the D in the general. The contractors might, but they're exactly a Democratic group anyway and not a name that anybody much cares about. As for "law enforcement groups", if you're talking about Oregon Anti-Crime Alliance, then sure--but they always support the Republican. If you're talking about the cop unions, I don't think so. To my knowledge (and perhaps you know better and can cite an example), she's never done wrong by any of the union groups.

If you want to play well in RS game,you can buy runescape items and runescape powerleveling in our website.

If Nolan is in crowded primary (without Kitzhaber or DeFazio), she will not only get major backing from Emily's List but also from labor. As majority leader in the House, word on the street is that she earned major kudos from labor and their allies this session. She has always had good relations with labor but this session put her in even good better standing. In contrast to their frustration with Senate D leadership, both Hunt and Nolan used their clout to deliver on key labor priorities. With the backing of both Emily's list and labor, and a strong base in Portland she could easily win a crowded D primary. And Roadster, last time I checked the groups you described didn't exactly deliver Ted's victory...or any other statewide Democrat. Also, as a small businesswoman with strong ties to Portland's business community don't underestimate her abilty to reach out to those groups...and talk their language. Finally, she has great relations with the trial laywers. Looks like a winable coalition to me.

"If Nolan is in crowded primary (without Kitzhaber or DeFazio), she will not only get major backing from Emily's List but also from labor. As majority leader in the House, word on the street is that she earned major kudos from labor and their allies this session."

"Word on the street"? Where, in Portland?

You do realize, don't you, that sometimes an AFL-CIO or other labor endorsed candidate can lose a primary? It happened to someone I know back in the 1990s.

"With the backing of both Emily's list and labor, and a strong base in Portland she could easily win a crowded D primary."

If we are talking about a crowded primary without Peter or Dr. John, my first inclination would be Clem over Nolan.

Brian has a diverse following, represents Marion County, has roots in other parts of the state, and has taken on some high profile issues. Do I always agree with him? No, we have had arguments, but I know his reasoning about where he stands.

How would Nolan's voting record, public statements, impressions of ordinary Oregonians who dealt with the Maj. Office play out in the rest of the state?

Someone should do a study of maybe the last decade or so---if someone did really well in Mult. Co. but not as well in the rest of the state, did that person always win a primary?

Mary Nolan voted against and actively undermined the top priority of the Building Trades this session: the Transportation bill. She has also been working overtime to undermine another big issue for them: the Columbia River Crossing. And note that the building trades now compose the largest single block of the Oregon AFL-CIO.

Yes, she would have the enviros with her, but that doesn't win a statewide general election.

For these reasons, it is clear that Nolan is going to run for Portland Mayor or Metro Council President. Mark my words.

so, the Oregon AFL-CIO would endorse Allen Alley or Jason Atkinson for Gov because she opposed the transportation package? Don't think so. Maybe they go for someone else in the primary. But don't forget that the Democratic party has a large gender slant right now...and that plays to Nolan's advantage (or any other strong female canddiate). But you might be right about other seats as well.

Did Derrick Kitts just endorse Mary Nolan for Governor? You heard it on Blue Oregon first!

I really like the idea of Nolan for Governor! Has she indicated anywhere that she is (or is not) considering a run?

I don't think that her vote on the transportation package matters - basically she can say did not vote for a gas tax increase.

Representative Nolan has served longer than Representative Clem and probably has a much longer accomplishment list - so it may come down to a strong personality profile versus a proven legislative record. Representative Clem has indicated that he can self finance - but EMILY could possibly overcome that one too. Representative Clem is probably stronger in a general election - but Nolan would have the edge in a Democratic primary.

If Nolan does run for Governor, where would that leave the House Democrats for the campaign season? Do they have other people that can fill her fundraising shoes?

" But don't forget that the Democratic party has a large gender slant right now.."

Please tell me you are not saying "vote for Nolan because she is a woman". In that case, Castillo should also run so gender wouldn't be an issue.

People who have watched Nolan over the years will make their own decisions. Not everyone votes on gender alone.

LT--I see you are consistent. Did I say that women will vote for Nolan always and simply because she was a woman? No! But I know you aren't naive enough to downplay the role that gender could possibly play in a Democratic primary with a number of relatively unknown male candidates and possibly one or two female candidates. voters select candidates for a number of reasons...one of which is frequently (notice I didn't say always) the ability of voters to relate to a candidate. Among the factors that people frequently relate to is gender, particularly when it aligns well to their political ideology. Nolan's strong possitions on choice, her advocacy for women-owned business and contractors. her passion for K-12...all link nicely with many Democratic women and their core political principles.

all that said, I haven't heard that she is seriously looking at running. But mark my word, someone like Nolan (if not her) will jump into the primary and make this a very interesting race.

LT--are you sure there isn't a Future PAC rant in there as well?

Are the events of 1993-94 such ancient history that no one has commented or seems to know why Barbara Roberts would dis John Kitzhaber?

U.P.O.: Please fill in the blanks.

My memory is that Governor Roberts was having a tough time, as anyone would have, dealing with budget issues (does it ever change?) in the wake of property tax cutting Measure 5 (passed the same day she was elected in '90), a national recession, and the demise of the timber industry in OR. The new R house led by Larry Campbell blocked her agenda. Roberts pushed a sales tax, which was defeated in the fall in '93 for the ...th time in 25 years. On top of that, her husband, State Sen. Frank Roberts died of cancer that Fall.

State Senate Pres. Kitzhaber felt that he could do a better job, and he and many others feared that Roberts would lose, so he announced in the summer of '93 that he would run. Roberts finally decided in Jan. '94 to not run.

Roberts and her supporters were understandably upset, but especially in the R surge of '94, she would have had a hard time winning re-election.

Kitzhaber managed to win by about 9 points, although he lost some support, as did most D's that year, in the final week of the campaign.

Maybe there was something else behind the scenes that angered Roberts, but that is the version of the story that I recall.

nolanforgov:

Last night I saw the Legislative Media interview with Barbara Roberts on Oregon Channel again. I lived through much of that--remember in 1988 when her husband Frank was thought to be gravely ill if not terminal but he had some kind of treatment which put him in a motorized wheelchair but kept him relatively healthy and productive for at least 4 more years. I look at Mary Nolan and I don't see Barbara Roberts.

I look at Sara Gelser, and I do see a potential Barbara Roberts. The woman has spunk!

I don't see that in any of the Portland legislative women nowadays except Margaret Carter.

I wish some of the people commenting here could have known Barbara more than 2 decades ago. Mondale came in a distant second in the presidential primary, but Barbara, a Mondale delegate, was the consensus choice to deliver the vote total, "Oregon, the land of clean air, clean water, and clean politics, casts....". She earned respect, as opposed to people saying "you should like Barbara because...".

FYI, I have distrusted more Majority Leaders than I have trusted--from Shirley Gold and Dave Dix (who I believed made stupid decisions) to the present day. Barbara, however, was an excellent Majority Leader.

Now, if Nolan were to have a long talk with Barbara Roberts, learn about the "Conversation with Oregon" budget and tax reform plan which she talked about in the interview (still thinks it would be a good plan ), and campaign for Gov. on that platform, she might be an impressive candidate for Gov.

But does her "passion for K-12" include oversight of how districts pay their top administrators? Or would that be against protocol and tradition? Exactly what is Nolan's plan, or is "passion" without details enough?

Could Nolan withstand the grueling questioning Sotamayor is surviving so well? Or do you think that sort of thing wouldn't happen in a Gov. race? I remember Barbara being at the Dem. booth at the State Fair every day shaking hands. If Nolan were willing to do something like that this summer at state and county fairs as a Gov. candidate, she might turn out to be a better candidate herself.

Things were so tough after Measure 5 passed that in a recent interview upon his retirement, Dave Frohnmayer said he was only upset about losing the Gov. race for about a day once he saw that Measure 5 had passed.

On top of all that she was the first woman Gov. AND dealing with the first GOP Speaker in quite a while (imagine a combination of Wayne Scott and Karen Minnis in one person and you've got 1991 Speaker Campbell)--not to mention that during her term she survived 2 recall attempts, her husband's terminal diagnosis, her Dad's death during the campaign, her sister's illness all while putting on a brave front and doing an excellent job as Gov. in a really tough time.

Compared to that, Cafe T. says this: "Nolan is solid. Proven history as a statewide leader on choice issues, WIN-PAC, helping other women getting elected, etc. She won a close primary to serve in the House - so she can campaign."

She won a close primary in Mult. County therefore she knows the rest of the state? How well does she do in press conferences? Experience with a PAC and helping women get elected is going to impress downstate Democrats in the primary and all voters in the fall?

I didn't trust Jeff Merkley as Majority Leader and wondered how he would do as Speaker. Then a friend invited me to a political dinner. I heard an absolute dynamite speech and thought "he'll do fine as Speaker".

I didn't say there was no way on God's green earth that I would ever vote for Nolan. I did say I haven't seen her to be the leader Barbara was.

If individuals decide to support a candidate, that candidate may very well win. But I have seen people line up all sorts of endorsements and support from "insiders" and lose.

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