Novick's unfavorable number is the same in both the Statewide and Among Democrats listings.

Not that I ever had much faith in Moore polls.

It would be interesting to know more about the sample composition.

My neighbor said after the primary election "never did understand why beer had anything to do with US Senate". How many people who were saying that in June have had so much happen to them since then that they have forgotten that campaign?

A lot has happened since the primary, and not every voter spends a lot of time watching TV or online (esp. not 2 working parents with a small child, multigenerational households, people working multiple part time jobs, and other people with very little free time).

I am most likely to support Kitzhaber and/or DeFazio. My main objective for the 2010 Gov. campaign is to support the candidate(s) who give us the intelligent issue debate we were denied by Kulongoski and Saxton. The folks who have a grass roots component to their campaign instead of running a campaign designed by a consultant and inflicted on the voting population (aka one-way campaign) are more likely to get my vote.

I always thought Kitzhaber in 1994 and Wyden in Jan. 1996 won their statewide elections because they ran that sort of two-way campaign and featured town hall style meetings (of the sort Wyden still does in every county every year) where they stand up in front of a local audience and answer the questions the voters ask. Such an approach may be more "labor intensive" and require thought and logistical preparation, but may also get more "bang for the buck".

We deserve candor, civility, intelligent debate, common sense, a vision for the future and a plan to carry it out. Don't forget that Obama won as the candidate who inspired people, not as the candidate who proclaimed that "negative campaigns work" or that paid ads could make up for someone telling their neighbors why their candidate was the better candidate. No amount of money can force one person in an exercise class (or other group) to tell another friend why they support a candidate as some people did with Obama.

Perhaps I feel that way because in 1994, I was one such person who encouraged a friend who leans Republican to at least go see the candidates for Gov. when they spoke to Rotary.

The friend's reaction: Denny Smith was just a slick politician, Kitzhaber had so much content that the friend took notes on what he said. That was a vote gained by a voter making a personal decision, not being hit over the head with incessant TV commercials.

I believe if Kitzhaber or DeFazio decide to run for Gov., they could produce that reaction in people like my friend.

Steve Novick is a very bright guy. But he needs to ponder with his friends if there are things he would do differently in a campaign for Gov. than he did running for US Senate.

And count me among the folks who believe that it is easier to run statewide or for federal office if one has at least one elected office in their resume. I say that as someone who has campaigned for friends who had already held office when they ran for statewide or federal office, and those who had not. The first group had an easier time convincing voters to vote for them.

On the Republican side, it is hard to think of anyone this side of Frank Morse who could win over voters (esp. NAV) who didn't support Alley and have no use for the anti-taxer message.

Interesting commentary, but has no one mentioned a state rep for governor? Possibly Ben Cannon?

In the present environment, Novick is clearly (starting out) a stronger candidate than anyone other than Kitzhaber or DeFazio.

LT, we must have different friends and neighbors. Mine are frustrated with the Dems' timidity, still have hard feelings about the last senatorial primary where they feel the big money and the establishment made sure the establishment guy made the ticket, and they have had it up to HERE with a former labor lawyer governor telling teachers they ought to work for nothing and, hey, look out below, we're going to pretty much lay off or poke gaping holes in the entire social safety net over the next biennium.

So, no, they are not looking for a DLC-flavored soft talking moderate. They want, in my massively selection-biased sample, a damn Democrat.

And just for the record, in terms of content, having been a volunteer on Kitzhaber's last campaign, Novick could give away cards and spades and still rain down much more content that Kitz if you'd let him (Joe Citizen would run out of pencils and paper long before this would happen) . . . just sayin', in a wonk contest, Novick is clearly the beast. Don't let the beer ad fool you.

Joe Hill, I am sure we have different friends and neighbors. I live in a legislative district which leans R and has been held by both R and D. As I recall, even a state rep. winning in this district by 60% wins depending on how the NAV residents vote.

I live in one of the many counties Novick did not carry, where partisanship is less important than the kind of impression the candidate makes, whether locals think the candidate has common sense, stuff like that.

Kulongoski is a disappointment to many here who knew him as a legislator--I live in the state capital where the folks working in state goverment are like a local industry. These are folks who will make their own decisions, thank you very much.

The folks I know mostly would have no clue what you mean by "they are not looking for a DLC-flavored soft talking moderate". They want a candid, pragmatic candidate, not an ideologue. Some of the folks in this area voted Bush/Hooley in 2004. How would someone who is a partisan Democrat win over those folks?

I suspect these folks might remember what they thought of Gov. Kitzhaber and vote accordingly (he was very popular in some quarters), and might well like the seriousness and candor of DeFazio.

Steve Novick has the potential to be an excellent candidate, but he must prove that himself. A first time candidate for major office over a decade ago was really stunned by something learned while campaigning, "People won't listen to you unless they like you".

If people decide they don't like Novick (acerbic wit, snide remarks, or just not answering the question asked), no amount of paid ads or friends defending him on blogs will change that.

If a very bright guy named Novick has a strong grass roots organization and a positive agenda for the future of the state and people like the ideas on the agenda, he might have a chance.

However, I recall someone who had worked with recovering alcoholics being offended by the beer ad and someone responding that all good Democrats were beer drinkers and should admit it was a wonderful ad. Exactly what did that accomplish?

Successful ads sell what they are advertising. Ads that infuriate don't convince people to support what they are advertising. No matter who the candidate is.

Posted by: Owl | Apr 28, 2009 4:34:37 PM

Interesting commentary, but has no one mentioned a state rep for governor? Possibly Ben Cannon?

.... Owl, do you mean this guy?

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/index.ssf/2009/04/house_panel_oks_bottle_bill_ch.html

Grocers and distributors have proposed a series of 90 centers across the state, with grocery stores exempted from taking recyclables if they fall within a still-undefined "convenience zone" around the centers.

The bill had required that stores near a center continue to accept as many as 24 containers a day, down from 144 now.

But grocers strongly opposed paying for two systems. Rep. Ben Cannon, D-Portland, the committee's chairman, said he agreed to pull that provision to move the bill forward.

Rep. Jules Bailey, D-Portland, a committee member, said he wants to see required returns to grocers restored.

"I'm very concerned that we are putting that (bottle bill) system in jeopardy," he said, by "moving toward a system where we are requiring people to make an extra trip."

The new containers added to the bottle bill would come in addition to water bottles, which were added this year, and containers of soda and beer, which have carried a nickel deposit since the bottle bill took effect in 1972.

The Sustainability and Economic Development Committee agreed to move House Bill 2531 to the House Revenue Committee for more debate.

The money would help fill a $26.8 million gap in the $88.8 million plan by the city and Paulson to revamp PGE Park and build a new Triple A baseball park for the Portland Beavers. <<

I want a Gov. who cares about the whole state. I will respect anyone on House Revenue who goes after HB 2531 like a ton of bricks.

How on earth does Portland soccer fill a budget gap so big some Senators are supporting HB 441 which relaxes standards on public schools in case they have to cut days, librarians, etc?

Here's a potential column for Novick--if he were Gov. or a legislator today, how would he react to all this? That would give him the chance to show his "wonk" credentials (a term used by a someone writing a comment on the subject of Novick for Gov.)

That is, if Democrats really care about serious issue debates anymore.

I'm with Carla on this one. After Gordon Smith was defeated by Jeff Merkley (I mean seriously..jeff merkley??)..it's pretty clear that no matter how appealing the Republican and how clown-like the Democrat (not to say that there aren't many solid, qualified D's for the job)...in this state, no Republican can win state wide office..period. There is not a single Democrat who is being mentioned even as a long shot candidate who could lose to even the most talented Republican...it's about party ID these days in Oregon..that's it. This is a slam dunk for the D candidate, whoever that is...the election is merely a formality...this one is already over..

JJ--"no matter how appealing the Republican"?

The only appealing Republicans I can think of at the moment would be Frank Morse and Max Williams.

Westlund, who was seen as some Republicans as RINO and won statewide office as a Democrat. Do you really believe he couldn't have won statewide office as a Republican, unless the folks who love to yell RINO had defeated him in the primary?

Comforting to see that LT's disdain for Novick hasn't tempered since the primary. Some things never change, I guess.

Keep in mind that the lousy economic climate will have an effect on the 2010 election. There will be a backlash from some voters to party in power. Time has shown that Americans tend to vote their pocketbook.

Edison, I am a criteria voter, as in "this is what I am looking for in a candidate....". Have you got a problem with that?

Do you believe that peer pressure is a more effective campaign tool than allowing voters to come to their own conclusions?

Let's get something clear right now. Imagine 2 candidates, call them X and Y. I've known both of them for years, know their background and their strengths.

I find the way X runs the campaign--lots of grass roots, town hall style campaigning, good background on things I care about--impressive, although I think there were some missteps at the beginning.

Y, very bright person, has some good things on the website, someone I have known for many years who is very bright and knows the issues well. However, there's those wisecracks he made which I considered unbecoming a serious candidate. Then there is the opinion I have that some of his commercials were better than others, some of his endorsers I admire and some I just plain don't like, and that there seems to be a more ad-based campaign than grass roots campaign.

I call that an informed individual making individual decisions.

Edison, do you think I wouldn't have the right to make that kind of judgement if the candidate was, perhaps, a female, or a very tall person, or someone else not named Novick? Or are you just angry not everyone thought Novick was the greatest Senate candidate ever?

Folks, if you truly want Steve Novick to win an election, you will do him the favor of not making snide remarks on blogs about people who don't think the sun rises and falls on your guy.

I said I would be impressed if Steve Novick wrote a column addressing the items I mentioned.

Are you saying anything less than "Steve deserves to win whatever election he runs in" is "disdain"?

Or are you just one of those people who have a problem with individuals who have their own viewpoint rather than adopting yours?

"Do you believe that peer pressure is a more effective campaign tool than allowing voters to come to their own conclusions? No, LT, I'm not angry about the Senate primary. Merkley is doing fine so far and I have no complaint with his performance. I simply find it amusing that you seem to go out of your way to rehash your dislike of Novick with little provocation. You are, to be sure, entitled to that. To each their own. Cheers.

Hi there-

To reiterate, my sense is that this race slips into the danger zone only if Gordon Smith shows up (not likely, to me) and one of the lesser possibilities is the Dem nominee. "Lean Dem" is just sort of the midway point between the various possibilities, and may (nay, will) change once the field settles. You're right that I should have stuck a few words about Steve Novick in there; Allen Alley, though, strikes me as kind of hapless and I'd be surprised if he even made it out of a contested primary in view of how conservative the remnants of the GOP base are. (Although he put up better-than-expected numbers against Westlund, right?) Anyway, yes, it's very hard to handicap a race where the horses haven't shown up yet, but there wouldn't be an SSP if we didn't try!

Edison, When Gordon Smith spoke of running a second time for US Senate after losing to Wyden, I sent him a letter saying there were a number of elements of his campaign which offended people and he would be wise not to repeat them. I later heard from a member of his campaign staff that he read every letter.

I guess that was a "rehash" to send such a letter.

I was trying to do the same thing for an old friend who I know is very bright but who I believe ran a campaign with many flaws.

If you believe that the Novick for Senate campaign was textbook perfect (given how few counties Novick carried in the primary) then you have a right to say "go out of your way to rehash your dislike of Novick with little provocation".

I happen to believe Steve joined a long list of good people running less than excellent campaigns. Paulus for Gov. (my former state rep.) is on that list, along with numerous local candidates and others.

Edison, whoever you support in any election in 2010, I hope you will stick to "My candidate is better because..." and skip the snide remarks about anyone who has not yet seen that yours is the only candidate worth anything.

If I were running for office (or even had a title on a campaign) I would tell such snide people who claimed to support the campaign, "knock it off, you're not helping".

But Edison, maybe you are one of those enemy-oriented campaigners who would rather talk about what is bad about "the other side" instead of talking positively about the candidate you support.

And yes, I would like to know where Steve stands on HB 2531 and Ben Cannon's actions on the Bottle Bill. Wouldn't you?

I am "unaffiliated" and do not want more of the same thing we have had over the last few years in a Governor. Frankly, I just want someone that understands All of Oregon and their unique "place based" challenges.

<h2>Personally I'll be looking for someone that will be willing to invest in small business, look to improving the environment we live in while financially mitigating those effects on small business so that it can remain competitive, realize that there is more than tourism in rural (and that it doesn't mean Bend) Oregon, and will look for ways to utilize our natural resources and not just lock them up.</h2>