Kim Thatcher: Oh noes! Dead peoples voting!
Kari Chisholm
State Rep. Kim Thatcher (R-Keizer) has pulled another lovely chestnut out of the Big Scary Box of Right-Wing Bogeymen.
A package of voting reform bills are being proposed by Rep. Kim Thatcher. ... House Bill 3433 requires the secretary of state's office to compare Social Security death records to voter rolls, ensuring that the deceased aren't still registered to vote. Thatcher cited a Cascade Policy Institute study that showed more than 1,000 active Oregon voters were listed on a federal death database.
We've talked about this on BlueOregon before. Let's recap the actual facts:
- The Cascade Policy Institute actually said there were 6142 names of registered voters that matched the Social Security Master Death database.
- The elections division checked the names, and 4998 were already classified as inactive or canceled - which means they didn't get ballots at all.
- Of the 1144, a random sample showed that - in fact - more than 43% of the supposedly-dead voters were actually alive. (In other words, a bad data match.)
And now, let's recap the implications - as Chris Lowe described last year. If someone were going to try to actually commit voter fraud using the vote-by-mail ballots of dead people, here's what they'd have to do:
- First, do the database match. This is not a trivial task, which is why Cascade Policy outsourced it to a right-wing outfit in Chicago (amusingly named, "The Sam Adams Alliance").
- Second, figure out which actually-dead people got actual ballots. Keep in mind that 82% of the "matches" didn't actually get ballots at all, and almost half of the rest are alive. So, you're talking about roughly 10% of the matches.
- Third, visit their homes, talk to the bereaved families, and somehow (!) get your hands on those ballots.
- Update, per Jenni Simonis: Fourth, send in those ballots, making sure to accurately forge the deceaseds' signatures.
And after doing all that, you'd have something like 600 ballots statewide. Presumably, they're evenly distributed around the state - so about 10 ballots per legislative district. That hardly seems like enough votes, either statewide or in a single district, to swing an election and risk prison time.
Keep in mind that if you were going to try this, you'd have to be pretty darn sure that not a single one of those bereaved families from whom you're demanding a ballot is going to call the police. Doesn't seem highly likely to me that anybody would try this.
Is it possible that somewhere there's a bereaved family member who finds a vote-by-mail ballot for the recently-deceased and decides to send it in? Yeah, maybe. But not very likely. After all, we're talking about committing a crime - and for what benefit? What would be the motive? And even if they did, that'd just be one ballot - not a widespread conspiracy designed to change the outcome of an election.
So, why is Kim Thatcher dragging this stupid idea back out of the Big Scary Box? Because the right wing in Oregon can't believe that they're losing elections so badly. It's unfathomable to them that the voters just don't agree with them anymore. There's gotta be some kind of fraud, right? Right?
It seems that while dead people don't vote, dumb ideas never die.
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4:05 a.m.
Mar 31, '09
And add in the fact that your forged signature has to match the signature(s) on file at the elections office for that person.
Mar 31, '09
My Mother passed on this passed on this past July and being originally from Chicago I was "kinda hopin" that I would be able to place a straight Democratic vote for her in November, but to my dismay the Deschutes County Clerk did her job and by September she was off voters role. Damn! The system worked!
Mar 31, '09
Because all they have is stupid ideas.
Mar 31, '09
My Mother passed on this past July and being originally from Chicago I was "kinda hopin" that I would be able to place a straight Democratic vote for her in November, but to my dismay the Deschutes County Clerk did her job and by September she was off voters role. Damn! The system worked!
Boy! I need and editor this early in the morning - Jeesh!
8:01 a.m.
Mar 31, '09
Great point, Jenni!
Mar 31, '09
Forgery is a felony. In Oregon, prisoners lose their right to vote. Why would someone would take the risk of losing the right to vote for years, just so they could send another ballot in? It would be much less risky and easier to persuade another voter.
10:12 a.m.
Mar 31, '09
The second best part of this (the first being that Thatcher looks absolutely insane by flogging this) is that we don't have to endure Linda Flores' harmonic agreement with Thatcher.
Cuz Flores LOST.
Perhaps Thatcher is on deck for the same next cycle....
Mar 31, '09
Many would rather have been dead than vote in this last one. Maybe that's her confusion.
And this is why the Blagmeister is such a problem for the Democratic Party (besides being a male version of Sarah Palin). It's like those stupid WOD commercials, this is your brain, this is your brain on drugs. These are Democratic Party principles. These are Democratic Party principles in Chicago.
Why is it that every abuse you rail on about goes from being a scandal to business as usual (but not white guys, jeeeezuuuus!), if it's Chicago? There has never been an honest, Illinois Democrat. Did you not notice that, or do you not care? Hope? BSO's former Senate district has the vain hope of a free and fair election some day.
Mar 31, '09
There are very good reasons that Kim Thatcher introduced HB 3433. The state is currently conducting two different investigations into dozens of people who were reported as being deceased yet voted in 2008. These voters are both Democrats and Republicans. Simply, there needs to be accountability in any election. This bill will help to tighten up the integrity of the vote by mail system. It will also create a public service in the sense that people will be notified by the state if their name should appear on the Social Security Death List. If someone is alive and receives this notice they will be able to clear up the discrepancy before they lose any benefits. No one should object to making Oregon’s election rolls as clean and accurate as possible. This is a non-partisan issue that needs to be in the election code.
10:50 a.m.
Mar 31, '09
J. Alan -- Are you Jeff Alan, the "chief investigator" on this project for the Cascade Policy Institute?
10:55 a.m.
Mar 31, '09
And to the point: J. Alan, no one here is objecting to making the voter rolls "as clean and accurate as possible" (though a reasonable case could be made that it may not be worth additional millions to ferret out every single last funky record in the system... Should we hire thousands of investigators to knock on doors every few weeks, just to see if people have moved? Maybe call every voter once a week - "still alive?")
No one is objecting to notifying people that they may have accidentally been placed on the Social Security death list (though a reasonable case could be made that the responsibility for that should be with the Social Security Administration, not state elections offices.)
But all of this seems like a solution in search of a problem.
What, exactly, are you suggesting actually happened? When you say "dozens" of dead people voted, are you saying that there was an organized conspiracy to influence the outcome of one or more elections?
11:10 a.m.
Mar 31, '09
All it is is posturing by the GOP. They know this isn't a real problem, but if they can convince Lars Larson to pretend it is, then soon the a hundred thousand fools who follow him will believe it too.
It's just like the nonexistent "Illegal Aliens Voting" scare they ginned up that was complete B.S.
And that plays right into their combined sense of victimization and grandiose economic/religious/racial entitlement, which is the heart of the GOP mindset.
11:29 a.m.
Mar 31, '09
"It will also create a public service in the sense that people will be notified by the state if their name should appear on the Social Security Death List."
This presupposes that the person appearing on the "death list" is in fact the same person who is alive. That's by no means a given--which is why the national SSN rolls are not exactly the sine qua non of data verification, whether it be for driver's licenses, voter cards or employment eligibility.
Maurer's right--this is pointless GOP jerking around.
Mar 31, '09
Not pointless at all. "Politics is the rational manipulation of irrational symbols." Sometimes those irrational symbols signify rational policy ideas; sometimes not. But either way, it looks the same from the outside. The GOP is a void in the useful ideas department, so their choice is to go out of business or find things to flog that don't require a useful idea. Now which do you think is most likely to occur?
11:46 a.m.
Mar 31, '09
"Not pointless at all. "
Pointless to the service of good policy, is what I meant.
Mar 31, '09
"So, why is Kim Thatcher dragging this stupid idea back out of the Big Scary Box?"
Boredom.
Nothing else to do for the R's...right?
Mar 31, '09
Know anyone from Newberg who would like to run for the House?
Easiest way would be to find someone who is a Republican. Or maybe the deadline has not passed for someone who is a Dem. or NAV or other to register R to run in the primary.
Thatcher defeated a moderate in the primary to get elected in the first place. It would be poetic justice to see her defeated in a primary. (Some of us voted for Measure 65 because then people in Dist. 25 would not have to reregister R to vote in that primary if there is an appealing candidate.
Many of us have tried to replace her over the years.
Seems now that unless we wait to see how the districts are drawn in 2011, there are really only 2 likely possibilities for dislodging Thatcher.
1) Defeat in primary ( I hear she isn't exactly well liked by other Republicans).
2) Making Dist. 25 a Future Pac target. And let the locals decide what is the best strategy for winning the district, rather than some artificial standard of "steam" such as poll ratings, voter contacts, money raised. Has there ever been a Democrat elected from that area? In the early 1970s, Dist. 29 was parts of Marion and Yamhill and it was Stan Bunn's district.
What it takes is an excellent candidate, money and the ability to attract volunteers (perhaps those 2 are equally important), a well run campaign, and some luck.
Given that moderates of either party have an easier time of winning in the Marion County section of this district, a candidate from Newberg would probably be the best bet.
Dist. 25 has been described as "Newberg, St. Paul, Keizer, and all the ground in between."
A winning candidate in Dist. 25 might have very different background and views than a winning candidate in the Portland area. But if there was a quality candidate running, perhaps it could be won. Finally there is a Democrat representing Dist. 49. Linda Flores and some other incumbents have been defeated.
In the early 1980s, Jim Hill (future St. Treasurer and candidate for Gov.) was the first Democrat, as well as the first black candidate, elected in the old Dist. 31 incl. S. Salem. Some people said we were nuts thinking he had any chance at all. It wasn't done with outside consultants, but good, old fashioned, grass roots campaigning--door to door, neighborhood coffees, etc.
In the President's words, YES WE CAN win some of these districts like House Dist. 25. But it will take hard work.
Mar 31, '09
Because the right wing in Oregon can't believe that they're losing elections so badly. It's unfathomable to them that the voters just don't agree with them anymore. There's gotta be some kind of fraud, right?
You have nailed exactly what is driving so much of this voter fraud hysteria by the GOP. Of course, I remember after the 2004 election arguing that maybe the Dems lost because we weren't very good at communicating our ideas to the public, or lacked good ideas to begin with, and I was shouted down by the "progressives" who argued that OF COURSE there was voter fraud, how else could Bush have been reelected? I guess it's natural to believe that everyone in America secretly agrees with you, even if they don't.
Mar 31, '09
Good deal!
As long as there have to be some safely Republican districts in Oregon, they might as well be occupied by pinatahead crazies like Thatcher. as a partisan Democrat, I'd say she's doing a great job for my party.
Mar 31, '09
1) Lars Larson does not have "a hundred thousand fools who follow him" and believe his propaganda. Saying that just helps him to pretend he is influential. The fact is that Lars has supported very few winning candidates or measures during the entire run of his radio show on KXL. Lars is a true legend in his own mind.
2) If you were a elephant and just got creamed at the polls both in Oregon and most of the nation you would look to blame anything or anyone except your poor positions and candidates. Katie Couric lobs Palin the fattest, juiciest softball question of the entire presidential race knowing the answer was the SCOTUS ruling about the Exxon Valdez (in Alaska) a few months earlier and Palin had no idea because all she knows are the right wing talking points (Tax Cuts, Gays, Guns, and God). Blame McCain's loss on those evil people at ACORN and dead voters in Oregon instead.
3) Thatcher doesn't have the political skills to be an effective legislator as a member of the minority party. All she has to offer is a package of bills that are a thinly veiled attempt to smear us donkeys. No wonder Minis and Scott "retired".
Apr 1, '09
I live in Thatcher's district and her hometown. Yet, I can't get her to reply to emails at all. I prefer email over phone calls because more thought can go into what's said, but I guess I'll have to call her office if I want answers to any questions. Nice to know that she listens to her constituents... Maybe if I was on the dead list she'd get a hold of me?!?!
Apr 1, '09
I live in Thatcher's district and her hometown. Yet, I can't get her to reply to emails at all. I prefer email over phone calls because more thought can go into what's said, but I guess I'll have to call her office if I want answers to any questions. Nice to know that she listens to her constituents... Maybe if I was on the dead list she'd get a hold of me?!?!
Apr 1, '09
Kari, that was pretty good. I ain't got nothin' to add - just enjoyed your slightly silly tone related to a serious subject. On a related subject, apparently our primary get out the vote organization that was accused of all kinds of fraud and tomfoolery... only pretend to have an office here in Oregon.
Darn.
Apr 5, '09
Now I’m reminded of why I left the Democratic party...when I read hate blogs like this. I can pretty much tell if someone must be doing something right--when you guys start pecking at your latest victim. Furthermore, if you're so sure there's no fraud, you shouldn't be so worried. Personally, I want integrity in the system and more power to her if she can get it for me. Get a life. I'm more worried about the Democrats taxing and feeing me to death.
By the way, I'm from Newberg and I’ve emailed Kim Thatcher with some points of disagreement as well as agreement, and she emailed me back a very thoughtful response. Maybe your email hit a spam filter. Or maybe you just want to peck with the rest of the chickens.