Ugh.
Carla Axtman
I'm certainly no economist, but I don't see how we're climbing out of this with only budget cuts and belt tightening.
Oregon's 2009-11 biennium faces about $3 billion shortfall
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12:08 p.m.
Feb 20, '09
Ah, but the same forecasting exercise that is shown today to be off by over $710 million, when it goes the other way is the basis for giving away all of our state revenue.
Eliminate the kicker and dedicate those funds for a rainy day fund!
Of course the spineless elected officials will never do that for fear of no re-election and we have the anti-tax jackasses who will immediately put this on a ballot initiative and the infantile electorate outside of Multnomah county will vote like lemmings to cut off our collective noses (including our kids) because they think that running a state and living in a civilized modern society is free and that if you try to make them pay for the structures that allow modern society to function, why then you are just taking away "their money".
Thankfully its Friday and I have a weekend to spend with my kid and that will make me not want to randomly punch the lights out of any Grover Norquest wannabee I come across.
Feb 20, '09
Kicker reform is one of many things that should be on the list. As Ben Westlund (veteran of the 2002 recession as W & M chair) said, "do the tough stuff first".
Now we will truly see what our legislators are made of.
Is there anyone willing to do what a legislator did in the 1980s when a tough vote came up, "Many of us do not like casting this vote, but it is necessary. So hold your nose, kick the desk, and vote for this bill."
That was a very colorful Democratic state senator.
Will be interesting to see if there are legislators willing to do the tough things in open public hearings and floor sessions this year.
Feb 20, '09
"Kicker reform is one of many things that should be on the list."
'Kicker elimination' sounds better than just 'reform'
Feb 20, '09
While I don't disagree with ending the kicker, just exactly how does that help the 2009/2011 budget? Those "spineless" elected officals are going to have enough headaches with the projected shortfall. Why tilt at windmills now?
Feb 20, '09
This may not really be on point, but the idea that there is no credit available to "credit worthy" entities is utter b.s. I just formed a new business with the state 2 weeks ago. Already I have 2 lines of credit, for a business with $0 revenue. $12,000 @8% and $16,000 @ 0% for 12 months.
Credit is there for those who have earned it.
8:49 a.m.
Feb 21, '09
Yep,
I sat in on a speech Tom gave a couple weeks ago at PSU and called utter BS on his forecast. He believes we will have a weighty 09 where unemployment will reach 10% and experience more normal growth thereafter.
Fasten your seatbelts cause this one is going to be a long one. Housing corrections can last a decade. Unemployment already lags typically 1.5 years. So we will need the economic tide to turn and then wait another 1.5 years before unemployment fully bottoms out. Think more in terms of 2011 or 2012 for that to happen.
Again, I think economic theory and economic reality don't always mix well.
Feb 21, '09
I have a friend who is an HR Director for a school district...tells me schools are getting revenue forecasts that are 25% below current levels. It's beyond anything ever seen before. If that, or anything like it, actually happens expect massive layoffs, zero extra curriculars, and shortened school years.
Maybe the stimulus money can pay to build the extra prisons we'll need down the road.
And what are you planning to do with your 65 dollar a month tax break Carla? I think I'll get more cable channels or maybe unlimited text messages for my iphone. That ought to spur growth. God knows we don't want to piss it away on anything tangible.
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