The GOP's remodeling credit: Have they even done the math?

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

I know I really shouldn't be taking the Oregon House Republicans' crazy ideas so seriously, but that tax credit they've proposed is really quite absurd - and I'm not sure that people are really understanding just how insane it is.

On Saturday, I ridiculed it as the "solar panels for everyone!" plan. But, of course, it's much worse than that. They want to provide a 50% tax credit to anyone that does some basic home remodeling, and they'll make it 100% if you can find a way to call it "green". Your project would have to be over $10,000 - and the credit would max out at $50,000.

Let's do a little math.

In the 2009-2011 biennium, the state government expects to bring in roughly $13.1 billion dollars [pdf] in the personal income tax. Oregon has roughly 2.9 million adults. How many $10,000 credits would it take to wipe out all the revenues from the personal income tax? Just 1.3 million. How many $50,000 credits would it take? Just 262,000.

So, if just somewhere between 9% and 45% of the state's adult population took advantage of the Republicans' "green" remodeling credit, we'd completely wipe out the entire personal income tax revenue stream for our state.

And that's what it would take to wipe it out entirely. It wouldn't take nearly that much to punch a 10% or 20% or 30% hole in the state budget.

And I'm not even talking about their proposed $25,000 to $500,000 tax credit for business remodels.

Do these guys even bother doing the basic math on their crazy cocktail-napkin policy ideas?

Their party chairman, Bob Tiernan, says we oughta run government like a business. Any business that literally wiped out their revenue model would go bankrupt in a great big hurry.

Do Oregon Republicans really expect anyone to believe that they're serious about governing?

  • Jägermeister (unverified)
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    I'm all for tax credits to encourage energy efficiency, but a 100% tax credit is just insane. I'm amazed that they aren't publicly embarrassed by their own white papers.

  • Dylan Darling (unverified)
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    100% tax credit... I'm in! and so would everyone else be! I think it's a great idea to give a tax credit to the "green remodeling", but 100% is absurd. Oregon residents would jump all over this, leaving little revenue from income taxes. Revenue that will already be low this year.

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    To be fair the credit is spread over five years, not two as you figure here. But the math doesn't get that much better over five years. And it's the biz side of that proposal that would crush us.

    I guess when a bill starts out DOA, you don't need to worry on details too much...

  • alcatross (unverified)
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    I agree it's dumb. And I'm hoping I'll start to see similar comments here on those occasional Oregon House Democrat crazy ideas (no matter how well-meaning...) that punch holes in the state budget. But, sadly, I suspect on those ideas I'll just continue to hear we need to raise revenue. And how surely 'the rich', 'near-rich' and corporations aren't paying their fair share to live in our little corner of paradise here.

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    And how surely 'the rich', 'near-rich' and corporations aren't paying their fair share to live in our little corner of paradise here.

    They're not. Click on that PDF above. You'll see that personal income taxes absolutely DWARF corporate income taxes. It used to be much closer to 50/50.

  • Douglas (unverified)
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    But just think, if just fewer than 50% of the state's adult population took advantage of the Republicans' green remodeling credit, we might be able to stop global warming here in Oregon.

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    My Representative tells me that the estimate of the financial impact of the Main Street Program is being prepared right now. However, the main points are that the negative revenue impact is in 2010 and continues for 5 years. Because spending occurs in 2009, there is positive revenue this year and payback in future years. Of course, the key to a financial analysis is estimating how many people will start a qualifying project this year and estimating economic recovery in future years. Keep in mind that one has to come up with the cash now with the promise of a tax credit over the next 5 years. This is a steep hill for many of us, even if we want energy efficient windows and new wind turbine. I’m going to guess the impact statement has a “magic occurs here” step and a net positive impact.

  • LT (unverified)
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    There is such a revenue shortfall for THIS bienium that there is concern about laying off state troopers and closing schools early. But there is money for tax credits?

    What planet are they living on?

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    Sort of like the way Tom Daschle manages his taxes.

    Sorry. Could not resist.

  • Glen HD28 (unverified)
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    You are all missing the point: The minority R's created this 'great plan' and the D's will (rightly) ignore it. The R's will then raise a big stink about partisanship, the O will then post a noisy misleading headline that does not include the math but features wild rants from the R's about what jerks the D's are. The average reader or TV viewer does not get the big picture (that it was a Republican scam, a red herring) and the world collapses into a pile of bickering FOX News baloney. Logjam in the Lege and inflammatory, misleading R talking points, nothing more. That and only that is the motivation behind this proposal. Mark my words, they will run with this crap because it will cause the D's to look petty and partisan.

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    Glen, you are almost surely right. I've been pondering my own post about the bipartisanship fetish.

  • genop (unverified)
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    What a shocker. The R's have set up a straw house to criticize Dems. So, call their bluff and pass a reasonable tax credit for green retrofits. Then count the votes.

  • Jessica (unverified)
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    Wouldn't this just end up being a tax credit for the already rich? I mean, who else can come up with 10k now to be repaid over the next 5 years? What about all the renters - where's their benefit?

  • mp97303 (unverified)
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    The state is generating all the revenue it needs, if someone in Salem would just bother collecting it:

    Study says Oregonians fail to pay 18.5 percent of taxes every year

    SALEM — Nearly $1.3 billion in taxes aren't paid each year in Oregon, according to a study by state officials.

    Read the article here

    Aren't we $800M short? $1.3B NOT collected. Anyone see where I am going here?

  • genop (unverified)
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    How about a 50% tax credit over 5 years. A state guaranteed homeowner loan program amortized over 5 years administered through local banks with a 5% interest rate and credits paid directly to the bank to reduce principal through the life of the loan. Rough math is approx $200.00 per month for a $20,000.00 solar retrofit. Benefits: employment, improved environment, less energy consumption, opening the credit spigot, and property value increase. The Dems should run with this and call their bluff.

  • LT (unverified)
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    gnop--any tax credit must be paid for.

    The only way to pay for anything is either to cut other spending or raise revenue. Are there parts of the Tax Expenditure Report which should be cut to pay for this?

    Just turned on CSPAN and saw a Senator say "last time we tried this, it didn't work as planned, so this time everyone who takes this tax break would be audited to see if the money is spent as specified".

    The reason the GOP has a trust problem is that they have been very precise in their attacks, but very vague in their proposals. Voters got tired of that and deprived them of their majority.

    The way to call the Republicans bluff is to ask "where can I read the details including all the numbers?".

    How is that proposal an answer to this SJ headline?

    Oregon braces for cuts: State may be up to $800 million short Budget shortfall must be made up between now and June 30

    Or is it more about gamesmanship than about solving problems?

  • alcatross (unverified)
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    They're not. Click on that PDF above. You'll see that personal income taxes absolutely DWARF corporate income taxes. It used to be much closer to 50/50.

    Kari, I acknowledge Oregon state revenues from personal income taxes is much higher than from corporate income taxes - and that the latter used to be much higher. However, this situation/trend is not unique to Oregon. In fact, Oregon's corporate income tax rate is around the middle of the pack - if not slightly above average.

    But you're evidently assuming the 'closer to 50/50' it used to be was some ideal state of fairness to be maintained in perpetuity. Times change... and there are other factors to consider in defining what is 'fair' beyond your simple 50/50 definition here. For example, the US federal corporate income tax rate of 35% is far higher than the 23 to 26% levied by much of the European Union. Most industrialized nations have been lowering their corporate tax rates to lure companies. Minnesota, which has among the highest corporate tax rates at 9.8%, is mulling cutting their rate in half.

    Also, complying with and administering the state corporate tax consumes an inordinate amount of intellectual and financial capital so that the compliance and administrative costs are the highest per dollar raised of any other source of tax revenue.

    I'm vociferously in favor of tax reform (corporate AND personal) to make the rules fair and consistent... plus ease everybody's burden of compliance. But these repeated knee-jerk calls I read here to increase corporate taxes based on this same data set always needs to be reviewed in larger context.

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    $10 buddy, $10. That's the only rebuttal necessary IMO.

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    In fact, Oregon's corporate income tax rate is around the middle of the pack - if not slightly above average.

    The rate hardly matters. The issue is that we switched corporate taxes to the single-sales factor method of calculation. What does that mean? It means that you only pay taxes in Oregon for profits on the sales you make in Oregon.

    Intel and Nike may have thousands of employees here, using up lots of state and local resources here, but since a very small portion of their sales are here, they pay very low taxes here. (Probably 10%.)

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    Oops... meant $10, not 10%

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    "Oops... meant $10, not 10%"

    <h2>Man, we only wish, right?</h2>

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