In the days when I had a boob tube, it seemed that Fox had a policy reporting the extreme measure in a confidence interval and making it a very wide interval. So, they would take the 99% level, and, in the model they chose, that might say "low between 19 and 5" and they would report "5", while the public assume they are getting the mean. They also do that with regions. If the Gorge is supposed to have a 45 mph wind and downtown 20, they report "Portland will have 45 mph winds". The adage may be if it bleeds it leads, but extreme weather is a sure draw. It hasn't been so long (for the non-Palin crowd) that weather was a sign from God.

One thing I noticed this week, was that while NOAA has a number of models to choose from in predicting the weather, they don't seem to have any capability/interest in doing it totally seat of the pants. A case in point where you need that was Tuesday. It was obvious Tuesday night that the Pacific low was not as weak as every model had it. In those cases, they seem to just ignore what's going on, and continue to pick the best model. I think they really need to develop some capability to recognize when it's "none of the above" and then apply their experience toward making a forecast that at least takes into account what is actually happening. A recurring example is a "cut-off low" sitting off the coast. It is total craps when that will decide to come in. Yet, over and over, you'll get forecasts that tell you, well, once I remember 12 days in a row, they tell you it will come onshore, never taking any account that they've said that for days on end. At least say, "we can't tell" and make up some kind of contest. It's infotainment after all.

Here is Woodburn, its been a weird week. We got about an inch last weekend, then no more until yesterday. That said, despite only an inch, it froze over and school was cancelled for three days. It all melted on Wednesday, only to snow an inch again Friday morning, again cancelling school, although that was all melted before 1pm. However, it has been snowing since 10am this morning. We've got about about an inch and a half on the ground, with no signs of letup.

It was nice that it was mostly melted for the procession for Cpt. Tennant yesterday.

I live in Multnomah Village, and I've needed chains to get in and out of my street (alt. 450') ever since Sunday. The ice has never melted here and is now covered with powder. It's really treacherous and has been since the start.

Here's a mobility tip for dealing with these events that has worked well for me.

The problem with chains is so often you need them to get out of the neighborhood but then you have to take them off to drive the highway. Sometimes you need them in the morning for your entire trip, but you don't need them in the afternoon.

Eight or nine years ago, I bought a pair of studded snow tires mounted on wheels. When these weather events hit, I jack up the car and replace the regular wheels and tires with the mounted studs. They deal with the ice and snow in the neighborhood, or the morning, but run fine on wet or bare pavement. That eliminates the hassle of taking the chains on and off.

As soon as the weather returns to normal, I remove the studs and put my regular wheels back on. In all these years, I probably have only twenty or thirty days on the studded tires and they are like brand new. That way I'm not chewing up the asphalt for four or five months and I don't have to depend on the tire store to mount them up for me.

Like I say, it's not for everybody. The snow tires on steel wheels are pretty heavy and I know in a few years I won't be able to do it for myself any longer. You also need a place to store them and preferably a place out of the weather to jack your car up.

All in all, though, it's worked out great.

We live in Beavertoonz on a crest with steepness on both sides. It's a rare little ghetto of high-density housing stretching far as the eye can see, and only drive-through traffic: noisy, rude, incautious.

Today it was like sweet revenge for all the times I sat for two light changes and more trying to get out of my drive to go to work/get into my drive to come home; being wakened in the wee hours by the building juddering to dragsters out front; unable to keep a garden for the blasting wind and sun on my over-exposed deck; the frequent car breakins during the summer months in this wasteland lacking in anything resembling human scale warmth.... watching the drive-throughs ricochet frantically. Transported back to my days in North Beach playing the Italian boys for drinks - foos ball and them ringin' machines along the wall.

Yup: this little paradise of mine is Bad Entertainment just now.

Can't wait to move soon to The Village.

I'm looking out my window at snow that is about 1 foot deep and I haven't seen pavement for over a week. The SSR is parked, helpless in this stuff and my wife is driving the '62 Nova with studs on all 4, 425HP classic??? I don't want to think what that would mean without the lower gas prices - premium and not too hot mpg.

I wouldn't mind much if I didn't have material loaded on a 12 pitch roof that won't put up with low 20s for installation and while I can clear the snow off, it doesn't do any good while it's snowing - every day. I do actually need the money that's tied up there.

At 1000’ were getting a fair amount of snow. And, I don’t recall ever having this much and we’ve been on this hill since ’92. The postperson delivered mail to the house which was a bit unexpected but she was chained and studded! We laughed about the rain and sleet thing but she did say the south side of our mountain was getting freezing rain and that is not going to be good for some drivers.

My fuel tank is at 35% and the delivery truck is expected on the 24th. The last time we had a snow delivery, the truck driver and I spend a couple of hours shoveling ice and snow to get him on his way. Yesterday I cleared my solar cells from their snow cover and actually generated a bit. Today, it’s covered again and the snow is about a food deep around the panel, probably from drifting rather than accumulation.

This year my generator is gassed and ready just in case the extra snow load results in power outages like it did two years ago. With any luck, this storm will pass and I'll have no story to tell.

Out in S-SE, it's coming down, and very windy. Last night on KPDX, the reporters essentially said "well, we know that all this crap we've been saying all week hasn't happened, but this time we mean it." Bastards.

Now 3 inches of snow on the ground here in flat Woodburn, and no signs of letup soon.

At 1000’ were getting a fair amount of snow. And, I don’t recall ever having this much and we’ve been on this hill since ’92. The postperson delivered mail to the house which was a bit unexpected but she was chained and studded! We laughed about the rain and sleet thing but she did say the south side of our mountain was getting freezing rain and that is not going to be good for some drivers.

My fuel tank is at 35% and the delivery truck is expected on the 24th. The last time we had a snow delivery, the truck driver and I spend a couple of hours shoveling ice and snow to get him on his way. Yesterday I cleared my solar cells from their snow cover and actually generated a bit. Today, it’s covered again and the snow is about a food deep around the panel, probably from drifting rather than accumulation.

This year my generator is gassed and ready just in case the extra snow load results in power outages like it did two years ago. With any luck, this storm will pass and I'll have no story to tell.

We went skiing today. Conditions were actually better at Timberline than they were down in the valley; especially since there were fewer white-knuckled drivers creeping along on 26.

I work up on the Mountain, though, and I ski nearly every weekend from November/December through May, so I have the equipment and the car to handle the weather--a Subaru Outback with studless snow tires. And proper ski clothing to keep me warm. Polypro underwear and ski pants/parka do wonders when coupled with good winter boots to deal with this weather.

I will contradict Dave Lister on this one. Either Outside magazine or one of the skiing magazines recently published a report that studless snow tires are actually more effective than studded snow tires. That's been my experience--and you don't need to worry about the studs ripping up the pavement, nor do you need to worry about changing out the tires. I drive with my studless snow tires year-round because I find that they also give me additional traction in heavy rains and black ice conditions. The lifetime's supposed to be shorter, but since I got more mileage on my regular tires than I was supposed to, I figure it's NBD. I get two years on these tires, I'll be happy. And safe--one issue is that I've encountered late season snowfalls without a lot of warning.

All the same, though, I'd much rather have snow than freezing rain. And we're holed up now at home with the wood stove and watching it.

I am so fucking sick of the lame Portland media doing "the towering inferno of snow" now all day and all night. Each station flatlining the same information as all the others, your usual empty "interviews" with lots of extra words and at least five repititions before they barf up that hairball.

We don't have cable. I'm sick of this. Tell us five minutes of this crap once an hour, how about? That's enough time for ANYTHING new you could possibly say about this weather.

Midwesters/East Coasters: do the pretend "news" people act like this when you get snow storms out there? Do they stop all programming and just... carry on around the clock with fake urgency like this?

Hard to believe. OK... I'm so behind on my New Yorkers - I've got twelve more dreamcatchers to make and four back issues of TNY. Better get to it.

And after that, a WALK in the wild weather.

TO GET AWAY FROM THE FAKE LOCAL NEWSIES!

rw, I liked your earlier post better...it was kind of poetic...this? You may have cabin fever. Turn off the boob tube, turn on the radio...KMHD or KPBS....the walk should do you well too. I saw people in the nature park today...on cross-country skis (anyone, I need an old pair of size 10.5, 3-pin boots, cheap), a bike, jogging, walking. Sno time isn't all bad.

"Sno time isn't all bad."

Great for people who are young and in good shape. 2 concerns, however.

1) It is possible to have a fatal heart attack when shoveling snow, esp. if middle aged or older. Happens more often than some people realize.

2) Those of us who have ever survived a sprained ankle walk very carefully in stuff like this.

Its been semi-amusing to watch the full time coverage on Portland TV today of the "snow storm crisis", and look out my window by way of contrast. We have less snow in Crook County than Chuck in Baker City (we have about 4 inches now), but we've had snow since last Sunday. People drive a little slower, but nothing really shuts down. In other words, in worse circumstances, we do better on the east side.

I was over to La Pine on Thursday doing some work. I had to travel about 5 miles of the back roads there off of Highway 97. Snow off the roads was about 14 inches deep, so the trusty Subaru Forester was pushing snow (we call in plowing here, but its not really). I actually did better on the side roads than on Highway 97. The busy highways can be bad because the snow gets pounded down to ice fairly fast. Give me a powder filled side street any day over a icy highway.

Snowing to beat the band right now, 12 degrees out, I expect about 8 to 10 inches total in the morning.

And now a little history: It was either 1967 or 1968 when we had a real good snow storm in Portland. For over a week it was below freezing, and the traffic that moved mainly used chains. Between Commercial and Kerby Streets there is an alleyway from Portland Blvd. to Ainsworth. It is concrete. At both ends, there is a semi-steep incline up from the main streets to the alley. During that winter, the chains damaged the concrete, as they spun on the steep part, and those marks are still there to this day. During that snow storm, the east wind from the Columbia River blew snow around into drifts. We had a 6 foot high drift against our garage. We had an old single pane picture window in the living room. It faced east, into the wind. It iced up on the inside. To deal with the ice, my father attempted to apply heat, resulting in a nasty cracked window. Needless to say, we coped with the cracked window until the weather was much warmer before it got replaced.

In 1972, December, I was a UO student in Eugene. We had a long cold spell. I then went to Alaska on a student internship from late December to March, in Kodiak. It was colder most of that time in Oregon than in Alaska.

When these cold patterns get going, my memory is that they tend to go on for awhile. Once the pattern of cold coming down the back side of the Cascades from Canada gets going, the Willamette Valley goes into a pattern of episodic freezing and warming up, for what can be a couple months.

So - buy your groceries when you can, prepare for the worst, and enjoy it when you can.

I spent most of the day outside in the snow yesterday, taking care of the animals and knocking snow off of the tents, I have one large tent down at the barn that I have hay and straw stored in, and another 20 footer in the arena for the mares to use. Everyone else has regular run in sheds with steel roofs.

It was nice out, although the goats were happy to come back into the barn after I got finished feeding out in the emu compound.

The chickens seem to like eating the snow, and the little Dee Dee birds are all coming in to the hay tent to eat cracked corn. Some of the Chickadees were coming as close as 4 feet from me. Took the camera down to the barn to take pics of them. Usually when I feed the hens cracked corn, the chickens eat the big stuff and then the little wild birds come in and do clean up on the small stuff. They also really like the grass seed off the hay. The little guys come down and hang out on the rails and brush around the barn waiting for the hens to finish and clear out.

Right now, we've got freezing drizzle/rain out here. Makes everything pretty, but my poor Nandia plant near the house is just about on the ground, and getting down to the barn this morning is going to be interesting to say the least. I was going to bring wire up to the house to wrap my boots in for traction. I knew I was going to need this, and I forgot. :-(

I can't wait to let the hens out of the barn this morning. Can you say slippin' chickin'?

I am so fucking sick of the lame Portland media doing "the towering inferno of snow" now all day and all night.

Sometimes I miss the old boob tube...NOT!

I've got about 13 inches of actual snow, with drifts of up to three or four feet up here off Terwilliger. Needless to say, the dogs were not impressed when we went stepped outside this morning. Luckily I cleared a little spot for them last night.

My phone crapped out yesterday, but I still have power so it looks like we are hunkering down for a little movie time and some hot cocoa.

Be safe out there!!

What I find interesting is the impact on shopping. Neighborhood dept stores like Fred Meyer were just packed yesterday and many of this season's top items like flat screens, iPods, digital cameras, etc were very picked over. People are shopping close to home.

Lloyd Center was busier than last weekend as many seem to have used mass transit to get there or opted for the close in mall instead of the suburban one. A couple of major retailers, like GAP, didn't open, but otherwise business seemed fairly good if not the normal pre-Christmas mad house, which suits me just fine.

As for the local news hoopla, I find it so damn ridiculous I never watch it.

I am proud to brag that our Mult Dems Admin Team met for the eve on Friday and the whole day on Sat. to brainstorm and discuss the future... Kudos to Susan, Sue, Laura, Eric, and yes, T.A. too.

Democracy doesn't stop when it snows!!

Up here on Pumpkin Ridge, NNW of North Plains (which is itself N of Hillsboro) at 1200ft, we're looking at about 2 feet of snow topped with 1/4 inch of ice. I've already missed a couple days of work and unless the county gets up here to plow the road, I'll probably miss another. Only occasional blinks of the lights as ice falls from/onto power lines, but the generator is gassed up, a nice clear path has been dug to the wood shed and the pantry is full.

This is, indeed, simple entertainment, a mild departure from our usual, eh. And yet I am worrying - those rainstorms backed by this were hard on certain people I've been aware of on my commute to work. I could not do enough. The Next Adventure donated a little bit to my survival bags to deliver, but they are always hit hard, and every time I went back for tarps, they were out of the ones I can get. I'm worried about the fact that I never heard that we replaced the lost beds when so many years ago we closed the shelter at the East side of the Burnside Br.

I'm worrying today about the homeless, more than ever. I can't get down to the Hawthorne Br. to see who is there, and I cannot get to somewhere to get anything to take to someone.

I'm worried about the elderlies too -- with my particular debilities, it was tremendous fun but not much easy to walk to the one store that is fairly near to ensure the birdies and the boy have fresh to eat. I'm a rugged grey haired lady person grown up from a natural girl. But I'm worrying about the ones who may not have anyone checking in on them, who may not be able to get out and about safely, and who might be too proud to ask or have nobody to ask.

I'm worried about the little birds. I hope folks think to sprinkle seeds in places where nobody lives but birds still do -- to perhaps remember to seed the places we pass through for the little ones that are there. To watch for animals clearly Out in the cold. To walk with awareness of the relations around us, not just of us and the ones we call related, the humans we love and know. Just about now is the time attrition does set in on the ones who may have need -

I am disappointed that this discussion hasn't generated some conspiracy theories worthy of the blogosphere.

For instance, there were rumored internet sightings of snow-making machine movements last week at major locations where the news teams "just happen" to have their camera teams. Also, unconfirmed internet sightings of sunbathers in the West Hills were reported yesterday. What does this mean? A Jihadist plot to close down the malls on their busiest days of the year? A capitalist plot to boost the profits of the sagging television broadcast industry? A right-wing plot to further sink the economy before Obama takes office?

It seems suspicious that we suddenly have "winter storm" outbreaks all over the country. No doubt this "storm activity" was planned long ago somewhere in the Middle East or deep in the mountains of Pakistan.

Also, what are the ethnic origins of the name "Zaffino" . Has anybody checked this guy's citizenship papers?

Hey Andy - you would not happen to be the Andy who came to Thurdays at Ross and Leslie's and often mailed scintillating clips from The National Enquirer and the like, with the rest of the story included therein? And always in a remailed envelope, of course?

I hope you are! We've often wondered where you went. That stuff was better than Lazlo Letters and is worthy of publication.

I do actually feel for communities like Portland who don't ordinarily get much snow having to deal with it. Our 'local' stations are Portland so it is a bit irritating to get "OMG snow" stories constantly, but it I suppose I like that better than 80F sunbathing stories from the south land.

It's getting deeper pretty quickly here and the freeway is closed between Baker and LaGrande. I've lived a couple years where it hardly ever snows, I find that considerably scarier than living in it all winter. It would be a good idea to keep the car parked if it or you aren't equipped for this. You might think, 'well, I'm going to go slow,' but that doesn't mean that an impact won't be serious. It will be worse.

I wrote a piece about winter driving for the inexperienced.

t.a....

Senior or West?

This all feels vaguely familiar...oh, yeah. Special election swearing-in for Ron Wyden in February 1996. It snowed, melted, froze, snowed in the higher elevations then got really warm and it all melted. Voila - a 100 year storm/flood. The newly-elected freshman senator opened rolling offices in vans to assist with the aftermath. And on Valentine's Day, President Clinton landed at Waterfront Park in Marine One. Now THAT was fun!

With 4-wheel drive and deep tread tires, driving was easy on basically flat terrain around Beaverton. Wanted to go up the hill around Council Crest, but didn't quite want to risk it without throwing chains on. Today, over by Tek, saw a pickup with a plow blade in front, cleaning parking lots.

I just really love the generally slower pace of traffic, and extra consideration between people that seems to go along with sno-days around here. Much less stressful than a usual December pre-Christmas day....except the coffee shops are chickening out and closing early.

Glen HD28, don't feel too bad, I just collapsed a 10' X 20' tent that was covering part of my hay and straw. I didn't get out there like I should have and knocked the snow and ice off of it this morning, and then we had a huge snow flurry that dumped an inch and a half in about 1/2 an hour. I went to knock the snow off of it and got half way across when Ker-Whammo!. I was standing under it, but it landed on a 5 1/2 foot stack of hay so all I had to do was duck....That's what I get for slackin' off.

Um... this post wasn't tell us you're dumb whether update in your neighborhood. It was about the media coverage of the snow. I think anybody who sits around watching the local news all day is bound to have skewed perception of the world, they are the kinda of suburbanites who are afraid of everything.

I wrote a piece about winter driving for the inexperienced.

It's hard to beat cuttin' donuts in a big, empty parking lot for experience, imo.

I'm starting to feel like a cast member in The Shining.

Timberline Lodge!

Doug, as to your spelling... I did notice many humble BO posters contributing "Duh, did I just do that?" posts... after all, as you say, you did not put up this article (was it you who originated it, thus having authority to speak to where it went?) to hear "You are (you're) dumb..." reports.

Yep. Cabin fever. Time to go walking.

rw, as to my spelling... thanks for correcting it, now we all know you're smart.

Glen HD28, the full quote was What do you think? What's been your experience this week? Any trouble out there? Has the media coverage caused you to change your plans -- only to discover that it was another false alarm? As you can see it relates to the media. I believe the use of multiple questions was for flavor. The trick is context; all of the questions relate to the rest of the article.

p.s. rw was my use of a semicolon correct?

Sensitive spot for you, eh Doug?

rw, can we please stay on topic?

rw, can we please stay on topic?

Yes, about media coverage. Jeff asked in a post, "Portland Retailers Blasted", noting that there might be no good weather until Christmas and the retail impact. If the various "storm teams"- read gang bangs- hadn't been doing they're "what have you got on tap for us schtick" and given the question at least as much thought as Jeff did, many might have not picked last week to stay in, waiting for the predicted clearing this week.

I have to thank rw and Doug. I was catching up on mandatory reading for a course about the history of the internet and I was just arguing with my boyfriend about his statement that the text's description of early 1980s spelling Nazis was an internet legend. It was hard to defend the course book because I couldn't think of ever actually seeing one, which made me wonder about his statement being correct. "When the student is ready, the teacher will appear". Life can be good.

I have to thank rw and Doug. I was catching up on mandatory reading for a course about the history of the internet and I was just arguing with my boyfriend about his statement that the text's description of early 1980s spelling Nazis was an internet legend. It was hard to defend the course book because I couldn't think of ever actually seeing one Glad I could help, but thinking about a course on internet history makes me feel old. Maybe I can start giving lectures on AOL picture trading and the term "list me" :P

Doug: still chafing? You choose a gentle poke as a chance to smite a Little Guy? May I suggest that you go thru all threads here and even handedly chastise all for being off-topic by your lights, not just the Little Fish?

Aimee: Too many days indoors: Nazi is an interesting subject, as it's used frequently and inappropriately by those in desperate search of a reference point to any of the following: 1. fascism; 2. nationalism; 3. authoritarianism; 4. murderousness; 5. obsessive compulsive attention to detail; 5. requests for clarity of reasoning; 6. radical efforts to establish alternate order onto existing culture; 7. mom; 8. dad.

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