The Senate Count. Update: Merkley by 382 votes.
Kari Chisholm
As of 9:45 a.m., the latest count has Gordon Smith leading by 11,000 votes.
But just about every county is upwards of 95+% completed - except Multnomah, with 47% counted; Lane, with 46% counted; Benton with 74% counted; Clackamas, with 62% counted ; Deschutes, with 64% counted.
Oregon pollster Tim Hibbits called it last night for Fox 12, and he's standing by his call:
Hibbitts said this morning that he expects the remaining 190,000 Multnomah County will tip the race in Merkley's favor."If you look at the composition of the voter base that's still out, it's going to favor Merkley. But it is possible I will have to eat crow on this one."
It's worth remembering, folks, that this happened in 2006. We went to bed with a very close race for Ted Kulongoski, but by mid-day Wednesday, he had a blowout win.
So, we wait.
Update, 10 a.m.: BTW, the issues in Multnomah County are related to a HUGE last-minute surge of votes, which slowed down their count. Also, there was a rumor running around last night (at the party and in our comments) that Multnomah County stopped counting at midnight. That's not correct. They stopped reporting at midnight, but locked their overnight shift of ballot workers inside and kept going all night. By law, they had to keep counting - and a friend drove by at 3 a.m. and confirmed they were all still there. In Lane County, there was some technical problem that caused them to have to start all over early yesterday, so they're just behind.
Update, 10:11 a.m.: Multnomah County just released its 10 a.m. update, just 49% counted - and the Oregonian's count is down to Smith by 7000 votes.
Update, 10:38 a.m.: Linn County just updated for the first time since last night, now at 78% counted - and the Oregonian's count is now Smith by 9035 votes. I've been running my own numbers over here, and my estimate is that Merkley stands to pick up another 35,516 votes - for a net win by 26,481 votes. Also, I heard that part of the Multnomah County Elections problem last night was that their basement flooded with the heavy rain yesterday.
Update, 11:09 a.m.: Multnomah just released its 11 am update, 51% counted and Merkley picked up a net 2000 votes. The Oregonian count is now Smith by 6899 votes. A few smaller rural counties have now completed their counts. My estimate is that we should finish up with Merkley up by 30,186 votes.
Update, 12:15 p.m.: We've got updates from Jackson, Lane, and Multnomah. Smith picked up 431 votes in Jackson, but Merkley picked up 2280 in Lane and 3055 in Multnomah - for a total pickup of 4904 for Merkley. We're now at Smith by 3278 votes. My estimate for Merkley keeps improving; my numbers now show a win by 36,216 votes.
Update, 12:38 p.m.: Deschutes County is now done counting, with a shift of 4594 votes toward Smith. The latest updates from Benton and Clackamas are a net 1103 for Smith. We're now at Smith by 7872 votes. Lane is 55% counted, Multnomah is 51% counted, Clackamas is 65% counted (and a dead heat right now). Marion is 71% counted, Jackson is 73% counted, Linn is 78% counted, and Benton is 84% counted. So, things are still looking good. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 32,327 votes.
Update, 1:29 p.m.: Not much change this time, except that Douglas County has basically completed its count, giving Smith another 1006 votes net. We're now at Smith by 8880 votes. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 32,051 votes.
Update, 1:32 p.m.: Multnomah is now up to 55% counted. Net gain for Merkley of 2630 votes. We're now at Smith by 6252 votes. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 32,988 votes. Incidentally, there's speculation in the comments about geographic effects within counties. Remember that with vote-by-mail, that's not really much of a factor - since votes come in uniformly over time. (It could be a tiny factor, since it's plausible that people very close to the elections office might be more likely to walk in at 7 p.m. on election day. But not much.)
Update, 2:17 p.m.: Lane is now 63% counted, and Multnomah is 56% counted. Merkley had a net gain of 2634 votes in Multnomah and 1311 votes in Lane. We're now at Smith up by 4717 votes. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 34,367 votes. The counting in Multnomah has slowed from roughly 10,000 votes an hour this morning to 6000 votes an hour this afternoon. I think we can officially call this water torture.
Update, 3:12 p.m.: A bunch of updates this time. Multnomah County is 57% counted, with net gain for Merkley of 3241 votes. Jackson County is now up to 85% counted, with a net gain for Smith of 1387 votes. Also, Clackamas reported a few thousand more votes, though it's not changing the outcome much as Smith and Merkley are basically even there. Same for Marion County, now up to 72% counted, but no change. We're now at Smith by 3483 votes. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 34,628 votes.
Update, 4:08 p.m.: Multnomah and Clackamas have new numbers - a net gain between them of 1431 votes for Jeff Merkley. Smith is now up by only 1960 votes. I've been engaged in an offline debate with some friends (outside the campaign) about the best way to do project the numbers forward. I've come to the conclusion that they're right, and my projections have been underestimating the final Merkley numbers. So, under the new methodology (and finally pulling together all 36 counties), my new estimate is that Merkley will win by 85,280 votes. [updated below]
Update, 4:25 p.m.: Marion and Lane just updated - a net gain for Merkley of 1216 votes. Smith is up by 1238 votes. In the next hour or so, we should see Merkley take the lead. My estimate is that Merkley will win by 84,691 votes. [updated below]
Update, 4:40 p.m.: Benton County and Jackson County just updated - a net shift toward Smith of 1670 votes. Smith is up by 2506 votes. Waiting on Multnomah County's 5 p.m. numbers. My estimate right now is that Merkley will win by 82,086 votes. [updated below]
Update, 4:50 p.m.: Not sure where they're getting their numbers Their numbers are old, so the lead isn't real, but KGW says that Merkley has overtaken Smith in the count. And so does CNN. KATU does too.
Update, 5:10 p.m.: Multnomah County is now at 60% counted, with a net shift for Merkley of 2524 votes. For the first time, Jeff Merkley is now leading by 18 votes.
Update, 5:32 p.m.: Oh, dammit. I found a stupid spreadsheet glitch in my estimate, which explains why it seemed so high. OK, my new-and-improved and up-to-date estimate is that Merkley will win by 54,256 votes. Also, I had a typo in my latest Smith numbers for Multnomah. Merkley now leads by 382 votes, a count that agrees with the Oregonian.
Update, 6:00 p.m.: We have breaking news, so we're moving everything to a new post.
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9:56 a.m.
Nov 5, '08
This has been my assumption, too, much as I assumed Obama was going to win. Still, I would like something more solid than projections based on county-level vote counts. I want this thing officially in the bag!
9:58 a.m.
Nov 5, '08
I think I saw that Jackson has some still out, but thanks to the great work of the Jackson Dems, he's running pretty close there, smith even under 50 last I saw.
Can't imagine how jeff doesn't win this.
10:08 a.m.
Nov 5, '08
I want this so bad, it's holding up my delight at Obama's win. C'mon vote-counters, make my Merkley day!
Nov 5, '08
Hard to see how the remaining counties don't flip it to Merkley. I think it's unlikely that Hibbits has to eat crow.
If ratios in Mult. and Lane County hold, Merkley will win by 50,000+ votes.
Nov 5, '08
I'm hoping that Merkley and No on 64 both pick up a bunch from the remaining Multnomah... The last thing I want to see is Gordon Smith and Bill Sizemore celebrating right now. Come on Multnomah!
Nov 5, '08
It may have well been those TV ads claiming illegal immigrants were packaging peas at Smith Frozen Foods that will put Jeff Merkley over the top to win a seat as Oregon’s new junior US Senator. Now the election is past tense, it is time for Merkley to follow up and make sure day labor centers like the one the City of Portland set up with taxpayer money are not catering to illegal immigrants placing them in the work force illegally, and that community colleges require proof of citizenship so that taxpayer dollars are not being spent to train illegal immigrants to package peas or for other profession where they would be hired in violation of immigration labor laws. Anything less would be hypocritical.
10:16 a.m.
Nov 5, '08
Jackson County turned out 46.6% of the vote for Jeff Merkley. We are still counting ballots down here and should be completed around 2:00 PM. We've got two tight races still crawling along. Lynn Howe vs Sal Esquivel for state rep. in HD6 and Jim Olney vs Dennis Smith for County Commissioner. Howe and Olney are first time Democratic candidates up against two long time Republican incumbents. One thing is for certain, the R's can no longer count on Jackson County as a safe county. Bring it on. We're meeting on Saturday to develop our two year game plan to elect a Democratic governor!
Nov 5, '08
Hey kari, I was just starting to write this same diary for DKos-I'm glad I refreshed BlueOregon before I put too much work into it :). Perhaps you could crosspost.
Nov 5, '08
If all trends that are shown on the DailyKos map hold, Merkley should win by 90,000 votes. It's pretty easy to add up the results, and none of the current results in the remaining counties seem unusual.
10:33 a.m.
Nov 5, '08
Way to go, Paulie Thanks so much for all of your hard work.
Nov 5, '08
So, by this rationale, 61 fails. If so, then what? Do we have to stick with 57, despite that fact that lots and lots of people would have voted no if not for the threat of 61? Ahhh. Multnomah County needs to get her ballots counted because I am kind of freaking out about that, about the Senate race, and about 64. Can I come help? I can totally count.
Nov 5, '08
Kari, thanks so much for posting these updates.
Nov 5, '08
At 11:13, the Oregonian posted:
Merkley 618,736 Smith 626,066
But the headline still reads "Smith Leads."
Nov 5, '08
Not only did Obama get a landslide, but so did the far-downticket races. And most of our state legislative gains were in Clackamas and East Multnomah.
If those districts that elected Karen Minnis and John Lim instead voted Democrat by LARGE margins, one would think that all of Multnomah will give Merkley a big, big boost.
And has a statewide Democrat ever won WaCo and tied Clackamas, yet lost the election?
But then--it's easy to "prove" on paper that Merkley must win; I'll be much happier when the results back it up.
Lane I'm not so confident about. It could be that Eugene/Springfield have already been counted and the results we have yet to see are from the outlying conservative rural parts of the county.
Nov 5, '08
Doh! Smith still leads. Back to the pot for another cup of coffee.
Nov 5, '08
Multnomah County is waiting to see how many votes Merkley needs before they finish their count.
The basement flooded and destroyed a bunch of Republican Ballots which have to be "copied" onto dry ballots.
It's like getting a ticket in Mexico: how much is the fine, officer? How much do you have in your wallet?
11:49 a.m.
Nov 5, '08
I'll be updating Merkley stats all day today here or you can refresh @ the O at will!
go Jeff!!!!!!!!
Nov 5, '08
I was just at the elections HQ - they are doing a tremendous job. It is true that the basement has flooded, but I must correct the statement made above about ballots being destroyed. The ballots have been moved, all of the ballots are secure, none have been destroyed or are even wet, and counting has continued unabated. The entire process is being observed by party officials, as always. Interesting side note: MC received over 80 thousand ballots on the last day - this is by far a record. That's good, of course, but it means we will have to be more patient to await the results...
12:06 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Merkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley MerkleyMerkley Merkley!!!
Nov 5, '08
Lane County just gave a noon update. It looks like Merkley netted up about 2k. Next Lane Co update at 2pm
Nov 5, '08
No, How Many Votes..., it not the ballots that are all wet.
Nov 5, '08
mult county just updated and merkley gained 3,055 on smith
12:19 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Note for the out-of-town folks. Ted Wheeler, commenting above, is the chair of the Multnomah County Board of Commissioners.
Nov 5, '08
Oregonian website: why do Sherman and Columbia counties haver more than 100% counted?
Nov 5, '08
The O site has an 8k difference???
Nov 5, '08
That's the beautiful thing about mail in ballots. Multnomah County election and continue counting until they have enough votes to win.
Like WA Govenor's race, recounted until you finally won the third recount - then stop counting.
Weird how boxes of uncounted (recycled?) ballots just seem to show up each time you look into the ballot room. I'm going to guess Ted will stop counting once Merkley has won.
Hey, at least the Dems have learned from past mistakes elsewhere in the country to keep the voter registration count high enough (through ACORN distribution of cigs) so you don't have exceed 100% turnout.
12:36 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Christy, I think you underestimate the number of people who will vote for a "law and order" measure, no matter what -- but are willing to go with the more reasonable one given the choice.
12:37 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Ignore Johnnie the troll. Multnomah County is teeming with ballot observers from the Merkley and Smith campaigns.
Nov 5, '08
Don't you love the smell of sour grapes in the morning?
12:41 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Christy,
The thing is that there is a chunk of people who voted yes on 57 and no on 61 who would have voted yes on 61 if there had not been a 57 option.
Nov 5, '08
Is there a Merkley-Smith watch party anywhere we can go and cheer as these results get better throughout the day? It could be Election Night, Part 2.
Nov 5, '08
Thank you Kari for these updates! I am on pins and needles. I live in Central Oregon -- did a lot of canvassing for Merkley and let me tell you... those Smith ads were very effective. Ugh.
And thank you for alerting re the troll. I don't read here that often so for all I know that poster could be a beloved regular here! (And I was reading the comments.... thinking WTF?).
MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK! MERK!
12:47 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Is there a Merkley-Smith watch party anywhere we can go and cheer as these results get better throughout the day?
No watch party that I know about - but once this race is called, expect that there will be a Merkley speech somewhere. I'll keep you posted.
12:47 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Thanks Johnnie (the trollster), Your comments made me think this.
I believe it's time to start the troll contribution fund for 2010.
Sign me up....
12:47 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Please stay on topic. We've got a ballot measure thread available for chit-chat about 57 and 61.
Nov 5, '08
Kari, the close TK race was in 2002, NOT 2006...
Nov 5, '08
Kari .... Lane has counted more than 55% of the actual ballots, since the turnout will obviously be less than 100%. My guess is that about 85% voted, so they're actually about 2/3 through the counting process as of the 12 noon update.
Are the other percentages you have listed in relation to total numbers of registered voters or actual number of ballots returned?
Nov 5, '08
mult. coutny updated again - merkley gained 2,670 votes
Nov 5, '08
Kari,
I am so reminded of all the fun I had on dKos in 2004, when I wrote the WA-Gov series about our gubernatorial count, recount, and second recount. It started when I made a few spreadsheet extrapolations like yours, and then went on and on and on, almost to New Year's Day.
Here's hoping that your Merkley-Smith outcome doesn't come even remotely near Gregoire's final 129-vote margin. And that Merkley's reelection campaign in 2014 looks more like Gregoire-Rossi II.
1:28 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
rural resident,
Multnomah County provides a figure for actual number of ballots returned (some of which may prove invalid for one reason or another).
Other counties do not seem to provide that figure on their websites, nor does the state that I can find. Rather, they just give the total registration, the number of votes cast so far, and then the latter as % of former, sometimes calling that turnout.
As Jenni indicated on this thread or another, this seems to be an artifact of a pre-mail-in reporting system, since most counties also report !00% of precincts reporting when that only means that a ballot has been counted from that precinct (ballots no longer are counted out of ballot boxes that come from specific precincts -- I am not sure if they used to be counted at specific precinct locations or were transported to central places).
If there's a place where info on actual ballots returned can be found for counties other than Multnomah, anyone know where it is?
If not, we should ask Kate Brown to change this for the sake of transparency.
Kari, your naive reliance on Republican count watchers is touching -- don't you know that they have been hand-picked by Ted W.'s Tammany West operation from ultra-RINOs who consider the RINO Smith not INO enough?
Nov 5, '08
I didn't see the comment by your troll johnnie until after I'd posted my comment above. It's good to see that trollery crosses state lines.
The bitterness, and the baseless accusations of fraud by those whose "GOTV" campaign seems to be based on suppression of legitimate voters, is increasingly pathetic.
1:34 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
are people gathering at the HQ on 30th and Division?
Nov 5, '08
I hope you are right about the eventual result and the 30,000 vote difference for Jeff. Having read your updates (thank you!) and the responses so far, I haven't seen a real answer to the question: if Multnomah and Lane counties are basically the only ones left, why hasn't the reported difference shrunk to less than 6-8,000 for the last several hours?
1:44 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Kari, while we're watching the Merkley results, do you have any updates on M64. I know my loyal and true union brothers and sisters would love to hear Multco is going to defeat it, too.
1:51 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
If Merkley does end up winning this, Dave Brownlow is going to be permanently struck from Gordo's Christmas mailing list.
Nov 5, '08
Thanks Johnnie (the trollster), Your comments made me think this.
I believe it's time to start the troll contribution fund for 2010.
Sign me up....
You are going to need that fund when 64 passes and the union gravey train takes a hit. Fire that baby up! Sucks to have to play by the same rules as everyone else doesn't it...
1:55 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
7 minutes till 2pm. Ahhh, suspense killing me. Called election HQ and they mentioned they were cleaning up in the war room, and could use some help at the office. 30th and Division
Nov 5, '08
Union Buddy, 64 isn't going to pass.
Nov 5, '08
Lane County- Another Merkley net gain of around 2k!!! This is good stuff! Next update at 4pm
Nov 5, '08
multnomah county updated a few minutes ago - merkley gains 2,634
2:25 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
ARGH.
I hate this.
2:32 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
I think we can officially call this water torture.
You said it. But it's great for BlueOregon's page views. Refresh, refresh, refresh...
Nov 5, '08
it sure is, it even brings me here in germany to keep refreshing the site, anyway it's almost time to go to bed here and I fully expect Merkley to lead Smith when I will check again in about 8 1/2 hours
Nov 5, '08
I copied off the numbers ftom the New York Times and several updated from the Oregonlive page, and did some math on the numbers. Looking good at this point:
NYT 643301 623882 19419
12:22 651173 643301 7872 -11547 71.2% 1:26 655066 648814 6252 -1620 58.6% 1:44 658650 650233 8417 2165 28.4% 2:15 663126 658404 4722 -3695 64.6%
Overall from 1st to most recent:
NYT 643301 623882 19419
2:15 663126 658404 4722 -14697 63.5%
Nov 5, '08
I find it utterly ironic that I was among the first to vote in the state (I voted on 10/17) and yet am among the last to be counted. Wholly absurd.
Nov 5, '08
That post didn't format well. The columns are:
Time, Smith Votes, Merk Votes, Smith Lead, Change in lead, Percent of new voted for Merkeley .
There's one more set out, Smith gained back a few:
NYT 643301 623882 1267183 19419
12:22 651173 643301 1294474 27291 7872 -11547 71.2% 1:26 655066 648814 1303880 9406 6252 -1620 58.6% 1:44 658650 650233 1308883 5003 8417 2165 28.4% 2:15 663126 658404 1321530 12647 4722 -3695 64.6% 2:40 665601 660264 1325865 4335 5337 615 42.9%
NYT 643301 623882 1267183 19419
2:40 665601 660264 1325865 58682 5337 -14082 62.0%
Nov 5, '08
If Merkley does end up winning this, Dave Brownlow is going to be permanently struck from Gordo's Christmas mailing list.
Yeah Jeff, I'll bet Gordon doesn't invite Bush to Thanksgiving either.
But the biggest winner yesterday was 18-year-old Levi Johnston, who may quietly duck out of a shotgun wedding to Bristol Palin.
Nov 5, '08
Good excuse to replentish the beverage supply. JM's ahead for good! Finally. What was the deal?
3:25 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Well, thought I'd stop by the campaign HQ at 30th and Division, but they really are taking things down quickly. Had brought my guitar and figured people might be in a more festive mood, but that was not to be. Spirits seemed to be pretty high, but a bit edgy on floor 2. Am settling for carrot, beet and ginger juice and some potatoe chips as we wait...
3:34 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
I just inputted all the newest info into a spreadsheet and added it to Google Docs. I just sent it over to Kari and Jeff. Thought it might come in handy.
Nov 5, '08
Bye, bye Gordo. Maybe you'll have some time to devote to the irregularities in your Smith Frozen Foods!
3:53 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Gawwwd! Ice pick in my brain. I'm so sick of saying, "If Jeff Merkley wins....."
3:56 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Ah, that was from you, Jenni. I'll open it, then. It looked okay, but I'm leery about things like that.
Nov 5, '08
KATU now has Merkley up by 1200 or so votes.
merkley up
4:08 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Why are the numbers all over the place - Merkley up by 1200 or down by 4700. THIS IS DRIVING ME CRAZY! I think I need to go for a walk, but my curiosity won't let me leave the computer.
Come on, Merkley!
4:10 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Jeff:
Yea, I forgot that you guys might now know my gmail address. ;)
Nov 5, '08
multnomah just updated - merkley gains 2,289 this round
4:13 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
The most interesting thing to watch now is the nailbiter of Measure 64, which seems like it will go down barely (and watch Measure 61 go down directly, rather than being trumped by M57).
Of course, there's also the Alaska and Georgia Senate races...
Wait, is there work to be done?
4:18 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Man, the latest updates I just put in have Merkley only down 403.... gotta do more hunting and see if other counties have more results
Nov 5, '08
I've got Jeff up 4200 at 4:20 PST. Don't diss karma!
"When Black Friday comes I'm gonna stake my claim"...appropriate background.
4:21 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Just to show you this is not an exact science, the Sec. of State's web site has Clackamas county with Merkley's number 30,000 votes below what the county is showing.
Someone typed the number in error.
4:22 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
They just caught it.
Nov 5, '08
KGW now has Merkley up by approximately 3400.
Nov 5, '08
I'm getting some weird numbers from: http://egov.sos.state.or.us/eim/electionResultsView.do?actionId=viewLoad&mode=view
And they're all hugely in Smith's favor. What's going on???
At about 11 this morning Smith's lead was around 7400.
Then at 3:26 the site had: Smith 673792 Merkley 639161 Smith ahead by 34K
At 4:18 it has: Smith 631585 Merkley 606044 Fewer votes than at 3:26!!!
What the heck?
4:26 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
I've noticed that KGW's numbers are old... most recent numbers I have say Merkley has 685,437 votes, but KGW says 652,726.
OregonLive has been the closest thus far, but they're hours behind on Benton County for some reason.
Nov 5, '08
John at 4:21, well that will help with what I just posted. No one at state has caught this???
4:28 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
The KATU site is updating every couple of minutes. They're showing Merkley slowly but steadily pulling ahead. Jeff's up by 2,464 at the moment. Not sure why SOS would have such different counts.
4:30 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Ah, I see KATU's numbers are old too.
Right now we're at:
Merkley: 685,437 Smith: 686,822
-1,385
Nov 5, '08
And so, the Rep's cunning plan becomes obvious. Without the Wicked Witch of the West on the ballot, Stevens would not have won. He won't survive, but she'll get to appoint a troll to the US senate. They knew the election was lost, they wanted a filibuster troll as comp.
If they dare, I say payback. Jackson may be the obvious choice for Obama's appointed seat, but if they do krap like that then I say appoint Oprah.
Some turds take a number of flushes.
Nov 5, '08
By my look at the MC elections results, it looks like they are counting somewhere between 2000 and 3000 ballots per hour. This is excruciatingly slow! How can we be so far behind the rest of the nation? Minnesota can count 3 million votes in 16 hours. What's up with Multnomah County?
4:55 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Down to 1400 at 4:30pm
Nov 5, '08
Per the comment above, I'm also wondering why it's taking so long to count the ballots. I've heard people speculate about last minute turnout and water problems. Has Multnomah County Elections issued an official reason for the slow counting?
4:55 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
He won't survive, but she'll get to appoint a troll to the US senate.
Nope, the law in Alaska changed after the Murkowski debacle. Like Oregon, they'll replace Stevens (if he resigns or is ejected) via special election.
Nov 5, '08
Know what a Vogon is? Same thing.
Nov 5, '08
It looks like CNN may be reporting old numbers--they're the same as the Times' numbers--but they they're about 20,000 votes behind what OregonLive is reporting.
5:02 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Piggly
We feed stacks of ballots into ballot readers. Minnesota counts its ballots at individual polling places on election day. You essentially don't leave the polling place until your ballot is counted.
In Oregon, we are a central count system and much of the ballot counting does not start until mid day on Election Day.
Point of fact is that we have always been a slow count state, as is CA and WA, both who process large numbers of by mail ballots
You're only noticing this now due to the very close Senate contest.
5:08 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Paul -- I think it might an interesting BlueOregon discussion over the next few weeks to talk to Multnomah County about the resources they would need to make this go faster.
Seems to me that it's a problem that can be solved with the right number of bodies.
I think it has a tendency to undermine confidence in our election system when the count is slow. Just hang out in the comments at NW Republican today a little bit. Sure, they've got an ax to grind, but a fast count seems less likely to generate confusion.
5:10 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
How can we be so far behind the rest of the nation? Minnesota can count 3 million votes in 16 hours.
The flooding problem may also be contributing but I'd guess you should also blame vote-by-mail and a huge surge of last minute ballots in Multnomah County. The large line of people they kept showing on TV last night who were standing in line because there was some issue with their ballot probably also contributed.
Counting is mostly done by machine and takes almost no time at all under normal circumstances. Voter verification requires human eyeballs and is a much slower process.
In Minnesota, voter verification happens at many, many polling places utilizing, I'm guessing, hundreds of volunteers as well as paid staff before the voter ever marks the ballot. That's how we did it here before VBM. Under VBM voter verification for every voter (i.e. signature matching) happens at the county elections office. If we get an unusual surge at the end of election day (80,000 in Mult Co is the number I've heard), they just don't have enough eyeballs available to make it a really quick process to get those votes through the process. Every elections staffer who was out front helping a last minute person who had a ballot issue was also a staffer who could not be in the back verifying signatures. It's my understanding that there were many more of those than usual also.
Just be glad we aren't like Washington. They will be days later because they accept ballots postmarked on election day.
Nov 5, '08
multnomah update - merkley gain 2,524 votes
5:13 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
The interesting question about the Alaska special election:
Does Sarah Palin run?
Nov 5, '08
I am sitting here in PA trying to make sense of this. Last night, it was said that Merkley was going to wallop Smith because there were over 100,000 votes from the county that Portland is in. My question is you folks have had all day so WHAT IS TAKING SO LONG??
There is much at stake nationally on the outcomes of this election, as well as those in MN, AK, and GA, and this slow count knowing what is at stake only ripens the imagination of those of us that are unfamiliar with voting by mail of voter fraud.
It seems as if this system is not good at close elections, but be advised, that the whole political world is watching this and it looks ridiculous to say the least.
GO GORDON SMITH!
Nov 5, '08
Ted Wheeler poster on bojack: "The machines we have, all six, are operational, have been since the count started, and process about 1,000 ballots per hour each. They cannot be sped up."
360,000 ballots divided by 6,000 ballots per hour equals, at best, 60 hours to count all the ballots.
5:17 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
LMO -- The main reason that it takes so long is that we verify, with human eyeballs, every single signature on every single ballot.
Of course, this is a known problem, and I'm unclear why the County doesn't apply more resources to it.
Nov 5, '08
w00t! merkley in the lead!
Nov 5, '08
Merkley is now up by a little over 1000. Mult. Co. just updated their website, the state hasn't updated with the new info.
My prediction is that Merkley will win by 20,000 - 40,000 votes, most likely closer to the 40,000 figure.
Nov 5, '08
Kari - it is not bodies - it is machines that determine the pace of counting. I appreciate everyone's desire to get the results ASAP. Each of the six machines has been online since the very time we were allowed to start counting (according to statute). They count at about 1000 ballots per hour each. They cannot be sped up. The overall pace of this election is no slower than previous elections. There was perhaps some delay due to the high number of last minute ballots (80,000 yesterday), but nothing unusual is going on with regard to counting. The machines are operational, the work is getting done, and it is getting done accurately. Our people are working hard around the clock to make it happen. Having said that, if the legislature wants to send some funding our way for more machines, we will gladly accept it.
Nov 5, '08
The latest state tally has Merkley down by 1273, but the additional Multnomah County tally gave him a relative increase of 2524, so he has about a 1250 lead.
5:29 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Thanks, Ted. The details are appreciated.
Having said that, if the legislature wants to send some funding our way for more machines, we will gladly accept it.
Does the state fund ballot-counting operations? Or are you just saying that the county isn't going to prioritize purchasing ballot-counting machines over other things? And how much does each machine cost?
5:30 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
I don't know that the verifying of signatures is that much of the problem since the machines can only handle 1,000 ballots an hour and ballots being counted last night and into the morning were ballots that came in before yesterday. So while all those ballots are processing, they can get through the signature verification process.
Unless things have changed, there are always a lot of people verifying signatures. And once you get on a roll, you go through them quickly. Many times I had to wait while ballot barcodes were scanned and them batched because we'd run out of signatures to verify.
It sounds like the problem is the machines and that we either need more or we need ones that can handle more ballots.
Nov 5, '08
Make that the next ballot measure, Sizemore.
5:32 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
It seems to me that the most populous county in the state should have more than six machines to handle the counting.
Are these machines that expensive?
It sounds like they work, so why not purchase more of them knowing that we have this problem every time we have an election?
This really is penny-wise and pound-foolish.
Nov 5, '08
Kari - thanks for raising another subject. Our financial resources are fairly limited at the moment. In fact, it looks like we will be reducing our budget by about 15% next year, on top of the large reductions we took this year. We could, of course, spend more to speed up the vote count by several hours. The question then becomes one of tradeoffs. Can you wait a bit longer, or would you prefer we reduce spending on public safety or human services? Real dollars = real tradeoffs. that's not to say the discussion shouldn't happen...While we are at it, frankly, a dry basement would be nice, too...The elections building is 90 years old...
Nov 5, '08
Merkley has moved back in front now by almost 400 votes: http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html
Nov 5, '08
LOM--I am glad the world is watching us as we make sure we get out vote counted correctly. Sorry if you have to wait, but those of us concerned with democracy are willing to wait.
Nov 5, '08
You have to be saving money already by not having poll workers and election day staff--that can run $1 million per election day. Surely you can spend some of that savings and get some counting machines. There is utterly no reason why it should take this long to count the votes. It looks to the rest of us that go and vote on machines on election day like Oregon is back in the 19th Century. People make jokes about Appalachia, the state of West Virginia, and other remote places being behind the times and backwards, but taking 60 hours to count ballots in Portland OR takes the cake.
Also, if you have to do things this way, why not bring in machines from some of the counties that are finished voting?
You're aleady taking somewhat of a political hit by those junkies that really follow Senate races, but you'll be the laughingstock of America if Oregon is ever the decisive state in a Presidential election and the election is close.
5:39 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Thanks, Ted. I suppose it all depends on how big the tradeoff is. Do the machines cost $1000? Or do they cost $100,000? Or somewhere in-between?
I do think that there are real costs - to human services and public safety - when questions are raised about the legitimacy of our democracy.
5:44 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Ted:
Yea, I was thinking the same thing about the building.
<hr/>An update on ballot counting...
There are six counties that have counted less than 92% of their vote - Clackamas (67%), Jackson (85%), Lane (64%), Linn (78%), Marion (77%), Multnomah (62%).
17 counties are at 98-100%.
10 are at 94-96%.
Two counties are at 92%, one at 93%.
5:50 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Actually, Multnomah County spends a lot on election workers. I don't think people realize just how many people are working at the county elections office in the months prior to an election.
In 2004, we started in September.
Nov 5, '08
OregonLive just called it for Merkley.
5:52 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Yippee! They sure did. Not surprising based on the numbers I listed above. It's just not statistically possible for him to win.
That's what me and the web guy from WWeek (sorry... was tired last night and can't remember names) thought last night when we looked at the county by county numbers.
5:55 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
I just fixed the spreadsheet so that it is viewable by anyone (you just can't edit it):
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pOiOhVaw7mwNy63ybs1ySfA
I'll continue updating the numbers as they come online. We should have a couple counties' numbers in the next 10 minutes.
5:55 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
MSNBC has Merkley up by a bit over 3900.
Nov 5, '08
You're right, Jenni. And the same logic applies to M64, though it will be closer.
5:58 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
MSNBC's numbers are old as well. Both Merkley and Smith are over 691,000 votes each.
Nov 5, '08
Oregon Live just called it for Jeff!
http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html
6:00 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
http://tinyurl.com/senator-merkley - this is a better link for the spreadsheet I'd linked to above.
6:02 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
UPDATE: Breaking news from the Oregonian. Details here.
Nov 5, '08
"Do the machines cost $1000? Or do they cost $100,000? Or somewhere in-between?"
I deal with bank check scanners, which sound like they are capable of the speed and reliability for this kind of work. A nice scanner that a bank would use for this would be a Cannon DR-5020 which costs about $10,000. For each scanner you need the computer, so add a thousand, and then the scanning software, maybe off the shelf and modified, for another thousand or two.
So a scanning station should cost around $10,000 or so, plus the special markup for "not selling you a scanner and a computer, we're offering you a solution."
Nov 5, '08
I would think is is the signature verification that is taking the time, not the scanning.
6:17 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
Signature verification is really fast as compared to scanning the ballots. You can do a lot more than 1,000 an hour, and they've been verifying signatures for days.
Nov 5, '08
OK, Jeff, now you got to show the guts to face down the Anthrax threats and start investigating, indicting, prosecuting and executing the global finance oligarchs that gave us everything from the 9/11 coup to bail out pay off - treason for the lot of them, Jeff. Get to work!
6:59 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
doretta, the Q is whether she appoints herself to the seat prior to the special. It's a Delicious Dilemma: she needs some kind of natioNal stature to run in 2012, but is Governor primarily because the last one appointed hiS daughter in the very same situation. What to do??
9:01 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
TJ -- The question of whether there's an appointment prior to the special is an open question, apparently to be resolved by the Alaska Supreme Court.
Nov 5, '08
It looks safe for Merkley.
With the latest Multnomah County update, his lead is up to about 13,000.
10:22 p.m.
Nov 5, '08
The numbers in my speadsheet show Merkley's up 8,054 with the latest numbers from Multnomah County.
It appears this will be the last update for the evening.
Counties should start reporting again between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. tomorrow.
Nov 6, '08
Multnomah County did an update at 3:57 this morning. The State hasn't added them to their totals yet.
The good news is that Merkley's lead is now almost 30,000 votes.
The even better news is that Measure 64 is now behind, but barely, by a little over 2,000 votes.
That could be slightly different when the State updates, depending on whether they add totals from other counties, but it should be Multnomah and Lane at this point.
Nov 6, '08
Multnomah County just updated again.
Merkley's lead is now over 40,000, and No on 64 is about 10,000 ahead.
Good news. I was overly conservative in my estimate of Merkley's margin--it clearly is going to be over 50,000. My guess now is aobut a 55,000 vote margin.
Nov 8, '08
UNITED STATES PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHER RALLY ! RSVP WASHINGTON !PLANNING STAGES ON GO ! LOOKING FOR A MARCHING BAND AND ONE FIRE TRUCK ! "NCLB has done more to stigmatize and demoralize our students and teachers in struggling schools than it has to marshal the talent and determination with the resources to turn them around." 11/20/07 Obama !18 million cracks ! "End the mandates on NCLB,it's not working." See Voices Across America question # 1 !Hillary Clinton ! ALL ABOARD ! Keep your ears to the ground and heads up ! Pass the word ! Grassroots citizen innovation for our students in Public Education ! Read Manufactured Crisis and find Dr. Guskey and Marzano ! Motivate to engage and let's go ! NCLB and 10% ? Public Education rises from the ashes and makes come back ! Mr. Chisholm,we want you to handle the press releases for CNN and the elected officials !Believe we can !That's why they call it the United States of America !Yahooooooooooo ! Thank-you !
Nov 8, '08