I love "quick hits!" Here is my call -- "Hits and Misses."

Hit -- Forsberg is a great guy. I hope the "nice girls" on the Clackamas County Commission can get the job done.

Hit -- Wyden takes the helm at the Intelligence Committee. Somehow I doubt Feinstein will give it up willingly, however.

Miss -- Smith isn't crazy enough to take on Wyden. The significant Democratic undervote in the Senate race will more than disappear when Wyden runs, as opposed the the unknown quantity of Jeff Merkley. Walden will run for Governor before a suicide run at Wyden. Mannix can't raise Loren Parks money when there are federal limits, but he has little to lose, so that's slightly more plausible.

Miss -- Tymchuk equates Tri-Met and OHSU to clearcuts, pesticide use, and destroying our remaining federal old growth forests? No wonder his boss lost.

Hit -- Jon Isaacs ran a great race and is a huge political asset for young Senator Merkley.

I'm hoping Merkley gives the thumbs down today on awarding a senate chairmanship to Joe Lieberman the betrayer and back-stabber neocon. He will participate in a secret ballot today to determine Lieberman's future.

Justifying Portland protests with Bush policies will only get you so far, Kari. Grandmotherly Barbara Bush was burned in effegy outside a fundraiser she attended for that right-wing nut Mark Hatfield when he was in the Senate. C'mon, just admit some of the people on your fringe (yes, the fringe) will protest any Republican, any time, for no reason other than they are Republican.

C'mon, just admit some of the people on your fringe (yes, the fringe) will protest any Republican, any time, for no reason other than they are Republican.

Damn straight, because they deserve it.

"What do you think? Will Gordon Smith get back into the ring for another pummeling? Somehow I doubt it. But stranger things have happened."

Gordon looked sick to his stomach and just tired all the way through the election process. He looked as if he really didn't want to be re-elected even if he tried. I belive his son's death is still taking a toll on him to the point that he just wants to be alone with his family and not be bothered. I would be too if I had a simular tradgedy in my family.

I do not think Gordon will run again for a long, long time. Under the circumstances, I would not blame him if he never ran again for anything.

Wyden's re-election bid won't be on anyone's top 20 list of endangered seats for 2010. Mannix's run would be announced to cheering crowds of satirists, late-night hosts and Democrats. Walden has catered to the fringe right too long to be electable outside eastern Oregon. Smith might make a race of it, but even he would start out as the clear underdog, having lost to him once before and having just lost to Merkley, who is nowhere near as popular as Wyden (yet). And no Republican can even make a dent in Wyden without going negative in the worst way and thereby alienating voters. Smith was the last of the statewide-electable Republicans.

Seems to me we're all but certain to keep the Statehouse and the legislature at least for one more cycle. And then we redistrict. If by chance we lose one branch, Kate Brown's already in place as the redistricter of last resort.

Of those 3 possible challengers to Wyden, the only one who might qualify as a "strong" candidate right now is Walden.

Smith just lost to a state representative with no name recognition and less charisma.

Mannix couldn't beat a member of his own party who lies about abortion and vacations with Fidel.

That leaves Walden, who couldn't even bother to pick up the phone to call an auditor when the NRCC money he was supposed to be watching walked out the front door.

It's possible the country will be in a different political climate in 2 years. 2010 could become 1994. But at this point, none of those three jokers stand a chance.

Of course, Wyden may not want the job either - especially if he looks to have a tough re-election race in 2010.

umm, Kari, are you feeling alright this morning? No offense, but this is about as politically insightful as Bill O'Reilly's pre-Election electoral college map: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/29/11202/363

How on earth can you call a challenge from any of the three examples you provided as "tough" here in Oregon? Even if the Obama administration is a spectacular failure, recent history shows that it takes the American people 6 years to recognize that failure. So regardless, there will still be a desire in Oregon to re-elect a fellow Democrat who will be working with the Obama Administration rather than against.

Not to mention what everyone else is pointing out - Wyden's popularity, etc, etc. No way in hell Wyden is going to have a re-election that anyone in their right mind would call "tough".

Kari quotes Kerry Tymchuk: "It is worth noting that I have found rural Oregonians to be more understanding of the urban lifestyle than urban residents are of the rural lifestyle. Not one rural official or resident ever urged Sen. Smith to shut down the high-tech industry, TriMet, Oregon Health & Science University or other institutions important to Portland's success. On the flip side, however, the senator was urged by many Portlanders to support policies that would essentially shut down the forests, farms and fisheries so critical to our fragile rural economy."

This is the one truth that is used by the Republicants to continue to wedge rural Oregon into their column. Ironically, if you re-read Kerry's comment, it is political party neutral.

In part, this is why I am so encouraged by Merkley winning. He has a rural agenda, he will be visiting each County every year, and he can prove to rural Oregon that it is in their own self interest to vote for Democrats.

Now, if only the Democratic Party of Oregon ....

No such public events could be held in Portland for Republican candidates George W. Bush or John McCain. Why? Because of the near certainty that massive demonstrations would shut down the city.

I love it when Republicans are distainful of citizens being politically active. "Massive demonstrations" don't just happen; they are made up of human beings who feel their rights have been trampedled on. So what does that say about your candidates? Shees.

As far as I can tell, there are only two things that get Republicans showing up for things:

• anti-gay rallies (like the one at the State Capitol against SB2 where a teen was shouting anti-gay slogans and who I'm guessing was struggling with his own gayness); and
• hotties like Sarah Palin.

whoa -- next time I'll spellcheck first.

where both the Democrat and Republican candidates can visit Portland without fear of being shouted down

What do you expect from a guy that can't even speak English? It is DEMOCRATIC you dumbass.

Oregon's transition to DC? Do you think it included voting for Liebertraitor to continue as Chair of Homeland Security? Ron Wyden's office isn't talking, "it was a secret vote." Thanks a bunch Wyden. NOT. How about you Merkley? Did you do what your pal Schumer told you to do and vote for his buddy lieberass?

The grassroots worked hard to elect Democrats and this is what they give us for our trouble....a quick kick in the teeth.

How did you vote on Lieberman oh Wyden and Merkley? Huh? Inquiring minds deserve to know. Tell us Ron and Jeff. Tell us.

Sincerely, Seething white suburban music/sports mom, mad as hell and can't take it anymore.

Thank you Pat.

The actual Politickeror article says

"Forsberg is the only candidate that has specifically expressed interest in the seat so far. Clackamas County Commissioner Martha Schrader, Kurt Schrader’s wife, has also been rumored to be a potential replacement."

With regard to Pat's remark about Martha Schrader: "She's got a resume from education through legislative experience, and county government that would dwarf that of about any other candidate, should she decide to go for it."

I talked with Martha on election night, and told her I knew it would be a tough decision, but I thought she would be a great addition to the state senate.

There have to be 3-5 names the affected pct. people in the district send to the county commissioners. I have been through this process. The decision lies with those pct. people, who might actually face more than 5 potential candidates by the time the process actually takes place. If any of those pct. people reads Blue Oregon, it would be interesting to hear from them.

Kari, why did you remove my comments? They totally were on subject re: the Oregon delegation in DC. Turns out Merkley voted to oust Lieberman. Good for you Jeff. Now what say you Ron Wyden?

sorry Kari, my mistake. My last comment was held for review so maybe you'll post it later. It was a link to the story that indicates Merkley spoke out against Lieberman. Good for you Jeff. Thanks so much!!!

I agree with most of the above in that Wyden will not likely have a concern about reelection even here in rural eastern Oregon where he is even more popular than Gordon. What I really want to discuss is the possiblity that Greg Walden would even consider running for any office that he might even have a slight chance of not winning. Greg Walden loves to talk tough when he's speaking to the true believers at the annual Republican Conference in Seaside -- and they eat it up -- but when push comes to shove he's a real lightweight. Let me remind everyone how he got his coveted seat in Congress. Remember our old friend Wes Cooley who was elected when Bob Smith retired. Greg was among those who was widely talked about as Smith's replacemnet but decided against running in the primary because, I believe, he was afaraid of a competitive race. Instead he supported Cooley, and served as Cooley's Campaign Finance Committee Chair ( evidently he didn't learn a lot there either). Then when Cooley was found to be an embarassment to even the Newt Gingrich Republicans and was run out of town, our friend Greg Walden's name came up again to replace him but no one could guarantee him the election so he again bowed out in favor of the return of Bob Smith for one term. Finally, when Smith gave Walden his blessing, which was in reality like giving him the seat, our friend Greg boldly stepped forward. And, as traditionally happens in this part of Oregon, once elected with an "R" after your name you really have to be a real screw up (a Was Cooley)not to get reelected. And unfortuantely I don't see that changing in the foreseeable future. I will predict that Greg Walden will choose to remain the representative of the 2nd district as long as he continues to breath or until he can get appointed to a job that guarantees as much privilege and income , and longevity, as he presently enjoys. Running for any other elected office in Oregon won't do that. Walden loves the attention, he just doesn't want to have to work for it.

Dave Hunt announced on election night that Toby Forsberg would be in the legislature and that the only question was whether it would be in the House or the Senate. Hunt obviously doesn't make the decision directly, but he made it clear that he's calling the shots. So much for the local jurisdiction deciding who represents them.

Dave Hunt announced on election night that Toby Forsberg would be in the legislature and that the only question was whether it would be in the House or the Senate. Hunt obviously doesn't make the decision directly, but he made it clear that he's calling the shots. So much for the local jurisdiction deciding who represents them.

Well great, just great. The AP has retracted its story, now says Merkley voted FOR LIEBERMAN to keep his chairmanship. Which is it?

Is Feinstein really thinking about a run for Governor? I like her and all, but isn't she 70-something? And isn't Boxer's seat up in 2010 as well? That would be a really dopey move if Feinstein makes it, imho.

Anyone who thinks Mannix would make a strong challenge to Wyden is kidding themselves. Walden won't work either. The GOP would be wise to encourage Smith to run for Governor, he could win. And the GOP needs to find races they can win.

I'm a precint person from Canby, part of Toby's district.

So a little story about me and Toby might go a long ways here: I was sitting in my house back in May, unemployed, and feeling disconnected from the political process. Toby knocked on my door and introduced himself to me and we talked for a few minutes about his candidacy. I decided to start volunteering for him and that snowballed into being a leader in Canby and eventually rolled into a field organizer job with the Oregon League of Conservation Voters.

Basically, Toby knows the issues that connect with people in his district. His hard work and dedication to make a better Oregon for his son and children everywhere was an inspiration for me during the campaign. I'm supporting him.

Ryan, I appreciate your comment. But as a supporter of Toby, I suggest you look into this:

Dave Hunt announced on election night that Toby Forsberg would be in the legislature and that the only question was whether it would be in the House or the Senate. Hunt obviously doesn't make the decision directly, but he made it clear that he's calling the shots. So much for the local jurisdiction deciding who represents them.<<

Is Dave Hunt in Schrader's district? Is he a pct. person?

If not, he needs to be reminded of a proverb often used by a friend who was an LA in the 1990s, "Hubris is followed by nemesis".

Something Hunt needs to realize (as do all presiding officers) is that presiding officers don't have a fixed term like statewide elected officials or legislators.

A Speaker is only Speaker as long as there are 31 votes in favor of the Speaker. Years ago there was a revolt against a Speaker who alienated members, and the result was that the Speaker was allowed to retain the title but some of the powers were given to others.

Hunt gives a good impression of not caring about how things look as long as he gets things done his way. He may be different as Speaker, but he has yet to win my respect the way Merkley won my respect. If he tries to be a Democratic version of the dictatorial Larry Campbell (who caused a member of that caucus to defect after Campbell's bullying a committee chair), then that would be stupid.

A friend had emailed me that Hunt wanted Toby to be the Senator, and what was the process--could he do that?

If Hunt is one of the affected pct. people and openly lines up pct. people to nominate Toby and 2 weak Democrats, that is the process. But I say more power to anyone else who wants to run for this nomination. It should be up to the affected pct. people, not a House leader trying to determine membership in the Senate.

Karen Minnis once tried to bully the Senate on something, and I wrote my Republican st. sen. saying I hoped she realized the Senate was an independent body. Sen. wrote back to the effect of "DARNED RIGHT we don't take orders from the House!".

It may be that Toby knows the entire Senate district. Or maybe someone from the other half of the district wants to run. I think this should be up to the pct. people in the district, and certainly the House shouldn't decide Senate membership.

LT:

Rep. Hunt is a constituent of Sen. Schrader and does live in the district--his house seat is nested under Schrader's senate seat.

I think you are going a bit overboard with your criticism of Rep. Hunt. It's not as though he's playing some sort of underhanded game here; he's just saying that he thinks Toby would be an asset to the Legislature and he'd like to see him down in Salem.

Let's let the process happen before we criticize it.

Full Disclosure: I was the campaign manager for Toby Forsberg's state house campaign.

Like Ryan I first met Toby when he came to our door. He is a smart, capable, business-savvy person who would be a welcome addition to our legislature. I volunteered for him because I really liked his approach. I agree, let's follow the prec. comm. approach, and find good candidates to offer up. Toby is definitely one to consider.

Thank you Robert.

When we had a state senate vacancy due to our state senator being elected to higher office, there was a very serious process where our Dem. county chair interviewed something like 8 people who wanted the job. Our chair wanted to hear from them what they had to offer the district. Sure, anyone living in the district has a right to be part of the process, but I think lots of people would be happier if there were 3 or more strong names sent to the county commissioners--and if anyone thinks a blogger can prevent people fearing it will be one strong name and 2 weak ones, they need to get out more. In the example I'm talking about, there were 3 very strong women chosen by the pct. people, and a public meeting where an audience heard the speeches by all 3.

In the end, we saw what many viewed as great speech, but the woman is young and may have another chance well known woman, but the speech sounded like boilerplate for a Democratic meeting, not specific to the district *speech where the woman talked about problems in the district and solutions discussed with the commissioners during the appointment process.

If Toby impresses the commissioners as being like the 3rd woman (who got the appointment), that is fine.

But it is the decision of the pct. people and the commissioners, even if they weren't in the audience to hear what "in the building" reported Posted by: in the building | Nov 18, 2008 12:41:16 PM

If Hunt got carried away in the excitement of the moment, and didn't really want to appear as if he would decide the replacement senator by using his powers to wave a magic wand, that is not my problem. This should be instructive: the Speaker's every move can be commented on by anyone. It is a more public role than Majority Leader.

Years later, people tell stories about memorable actions by Speakers. That's just the way it works.

From Politickeror today:

http://www.politickeror.com/brittenchase/3396/sd-20-martha-schrader-interested-taking-over-husband-s-senate-seat

The precinct committee people will be the ones that cast a deciding vote on the candidates that the party will put up to replace Mr. Schrader.

“This is not something I am entitled to. There is a process for the local people to decide, which is as it should be. It’s their choice,” Schrader said. “I hope they support me.”

Martha Schrader's public comment differs greatly from what she is telling people in private. She completely believes that she is entitled to this seat, even though she chose not to run for the open legislative seat this year when Wayne Scott retired. She hasn't even begun the four-year county commission term to which she was just elected, for God sakes!

Toby Forsberg, by contrast, declared a year ago that he wanted to serve in the Legislature and has spent the past 12 months working hard to achieve that goal. He'll be a great state senator.

<h2>There needs to be a minimum of 3 candidates in a replacement process. Multiple strong candidates serve the interests of the district best, regardless of which district it is.</h2>