Punditology: Our collective, conventional wisdom

Kari Chisholm

Well, it's the morning of Election Day. And, as promised, here's the conventional wisdom from 310 folks who participated in the 2008 Punditology Challenge. Our participants include journalists, lobbyists, campaign hacks, political consultants, elected officials, and a whole lot of political junkies.

An important caveat: In years past, we've learned that the Punditology conventional wisdom is usually right -- but when we're wrong, we are spectacularly wrong. It is certainly possible for everyone to be surprised. (And if your favored candidate is on the wrong side of the C.W., get to work today, and prove us all wrong!)

First, the presidential race:

• 99.7% of you think Barack Obama will win the overall popular vote.
• 51% believe that he'll get 300-339 electoral votes. Another 37% think he'll get a 340+ vote landslide win. 11% say it'll be a 270-299 vote narrow win.
• The most likely Bush states to flip to Obama?
  • 92% Colorado
  • 91% Virginia
  • 85% New Mexico
  • 84% Ohio
  • 80% Nevada
  • 78% Iowa
  • 77% Florida
  • 62% North Carolina
  • 50% Missouri
  • 41% Indiana
  • 24% Montana
  • 22% North Dakota
  • 16% Georgia
  • 10% West Virginia
  • 7% Arizona
  • 7% South Carolina
• Only 4% of you think New Hampshire might flip to McCain. Another 3% think Pennsylvania will flip. And that's about it.

More on the jump - including U.S. Senate races, the Oregon statewide races, the fight for the Oregon Legislature, and those pesky ballot measures...

Here's what you said about the national races for Congress:

• How many of you think the Democrats will pick up these Senate seats?
  • 94% Jeff Merkley, Oregon
  • 94% Mark Begich, Alaska
  • 89% Kay Hagan, North Carolina
  • 86% Al Franken, Minnesota
  • 38% Jim Martin, Georgia
  • 21% Bill Lunsford, Kentucky
  • 30% Ronnie Musgrove, Mississippi
• 24% of you think the Democrats will finish with 57 Senate seats (plus Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman.) 23% say it'll be 58 seats. 14% say it'll be 56 seats. 13% call it for 59 seats.
• On the House side, 40% of you think the Democrats will pick up 20-29 seats. 37% of you think it'll be 10-19 pickups.

Let's talk Oregon's statewide and federal races:

• Once again, 94% of you think Jeff Merkley will win. 75% of you think Dave Brownlow will get less than 5% of the vote. There was no strong thinking on the number of counties that Merkley will win - though 21% of you thought it would be 10 counties (more than Kerry, less than Kulongoski.)
• 99% of you think Kurt Schrader will win.
• 99% of you think Kate Brown will win.
• 86% of you think Ben Westlund will win.

In Washington State:

• 94% of you think Chris Gregoire will win.
  
• 81% of you think Darcy Burner will win.
  
• 81% of you think I-1000 will pass.
  

Oregon ballot measures:

• The measures, ranked by the percentage of you that think they'll pass:
  • 95% Measure 55 - effective date of redistricting
  • 93% Measure 54 - voting age for school board elections
  • 90% Measure 57 - tougher sentencing + drug treatment
  • 80% Measure 56 - repeal of double majority rule
  • 55% Measure 61 - Mannix's mandatory prison for first-time nonviolent crimes
  • 41% Measure 65 - Keisling's top-two primary
  • 20% Measure 62 - Mannix's lottery funds for prisons
  • 10% Measure 63 - Sizemore's no-permits-required
  • 9% Measure 59 - Sizemore's federal tax deductability
  • 9% Measure 60 - Sizemore's teacher merit pay
  • 9% Measure 64 - Sizemore's paycheck deception
  • 8% Measure 58 - Sizemore's English-only in schools
• And 54% of you believe M57 and M61 will pass, but M57 will get more votes. Another 26% of you think M57 will pass while M61 fails.

And now, the big prize in Oregon - the legislature:

• How many of you think the Democrats will win these House seats?
  • 98% HD35 Larry Galizio (D) vs. Tony Marino (R)
  • 95% HD38 Chris Garrett (D) vs. Steve Griffith (R)
  • 93% HD9 Arnie Roblan (D) vs. Al Pearn (R)
  • 92% HD49 Nick Kahl (D) vs. John Nelsen (R)
  • 89% HD52 Suzanne VanOrman (D) vs. Matt Lindland (R)
  • 83% HD26 Jessica Adamson (D) vs. Matt Wingard (R)
  • 70% HD50 Greg Matthews (D) vs. John Lim (R)
  • 69% HD54 Judy Stiegler (D) vs. Chuck Burley (R)
  • 69% HD51 Brent Barton (D) vs. Linda Flores (R)
  • 56% HD37 Michele Eberle (D) vs. Scott Bruun (R)
  • 54% HD18 Jim Gilbert (D) vs. Vic Gilliam (R)
  • 50% HD39 Toby Forsberg (D) vs. Bill Kennemer (R)
  • 49% HD24 Al Hansen (D) vs. Jim Weidner (R)
  • 36% HD17 Dan Thackaberry (D) vs. Sherrie Sprenger (R)
  • 33% HD15 Dick Olsen (D) vs. Andy Olson (R)
  • 31% HD6 Lynn Howe (D) vs. Sal Esquivel (R)
  • 25% HD20 Richard Riggs (D) vs. Vicki Berger (R)
  • 23% HD1 Rick Goche (D) vs. Wayne Krieger (R)
• The top three above are current Democratic-held seats. But the rest are all potential pickups. If our race-by-race conventional wisdom is correct, the Democrats will finish at 39 seats (with Toby Forsberg as a 50/50 pick 'em for seat #40.)
• Of course, we were each individually more cautious than that. Just 8% of you said we'd land all the way up at 39 seats. 21% of you said we'd wind up with 35 seats. 20% said we'd finish with 36 seats.

To see the full results, go here. And now, we wait. And work.

Good luck, everyone!

By Kari Chisholm Nov. 04, 2008