Don't panic about Measures 61 or 64.

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

A brief ballot measure update:

All of the Sizemore/Mannix ballot measures are handily failing - with the exception of Measures 61 and 64. (To recap, M61 is the one that mandates prison time for first-time nonviolent offenders and M64 is the one that will decimate political activity by public employee unions and some charities.)

The current hard count from Elections Division shows M61 passing 50.77% to 49.23% - a margin of 22,665 votes. The hard count shows M64 passing 50.45% to 49.55% - a margin of 12,942 votes.

But as we've seen with the Senate race, Multnomah County is the only county with a large number of votes left to be tallied. In Multnomah, M61 is losing badly - 62.8% to 37.2%; and M64 is losing by a similar margin - 61.6% to 38.4%.

I haven't had a chance to do a full-scale projection like the Senate race, but some quick math reveals that Multnomah County will deliver another 75 to 81,000 No votes on Measure 61 -- and another 75,000 to 83,000 No votes on Measure 64.

So, it looks fairly certain that when Multnomah County's ballots are finally counted, Measures 61 and 64 will likely fail.

Of course, with regard to M61, this is mostly meaningless from a policy standpoint. The big Yes vote for Measure 57 means that M61 won't become law. (Of course, there will be plenty of questions about the political strategy around the competing measures.)

Update, 7:22 a.m. And sure enough, in the big overnight update from Multnomah County, they just added a net vote of 30,356 No votes for Measure 61 and 24,756 No votes for Measure 64. That should be enough to defeat both measures.

  • Peter Bray (unverified)
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    Whoever is in charge of counting votes in Multco should be fired. The delay is a national embarrassment and disgrace.

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    Kari - Voter turnout in MC was 360,551. As of 4 am, elections had counted 292,306 ballots. Assuming that everyone votes on the measure (there is a 10 percent undervote in MC), and that late voters go against the measure at the same rate that early voters went against the measure (Republicans tended to vote later), I see an optimistic net gain of about 14,000 votes against 64 from Multnomah County, not 75,000.

    According to the O, M64 is currently leading by 10,300 votes with 85 percent counted. Under a best-case scenario, the measure should lose by about 4,000 votes. My guess is that it will be somewhat closer than that -- close enough that there will be a recount automatically triggered.

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    My projection is that M64 will pass or fail by fewer than 1000 votes.

  • Tom (unverified)
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    And people keep trying to address how Multnomah and the Valley can be so far behind places that are supposed to be slow, like Graft Co. OK and Voterfixer Co., FL.

    And why the deflection by this blog? People are interested in the situation, because it's unacceptable and cannot be an honest error or lack of funds. Instead of yelling about it being off-topic, start a thread!

    Returning to reality, what a huge friggin' coincidence that THE most progressive population with respect to ballot initiatives and grass roots activism, just doesn't happen to have the werewithall to count the vote as well as places that don't give a damn. Pulling your hair out for 48 hours after months of work, when no one else is, is designed and accomplishes the desired effect of dampening enthusiasm.

    This is a good example of Portland being so complacent in it's liberal credentials that there is very seldom an honest evaluation of the results. If you compare the raw mass of support to the resources, you'll find yourself far behind places where the State is actively hostile to initiatives, like Austin, TX.

    At the end of the day, Oregon seems to have a unique public servant demographic. Every state has big government and little government types. The odd thing about Oregon is that it's the little government types that oppose funding to everything, and want a very regressive, very reactionary, small State government, that occupy the jobs funded by the progressive initiatives! They don't get the philosophy of what they're administering, and, often, see that it fails, while taking a nice salary off the taxpayer.

    Multnomah Co. had a supervisor that was willing to follow the word, spirit and letter of the law, completely against the flow of play. Once. Look what happened to her. Let's bring this done to brass tacks. Since the "safe" replacements after the gay marriage thing, how many decisions have been made that directly attenuated the ability to count votes that would not have been taken otherwise? The mandate was to get Elections back into line with the rest of the dysfunctional bureaucracy and these are the results. The poster that said "Vogon" hit the nail on the head. "Not evil, but callous, officious, ill-mannered..."

    "Oh, that's lunch everybody", says the Vogon. Why did the count stop at 6pm? Are these people going home at night? If it isn't counted by 6pm tonight, I think concerned citizens should invite them back to finish their work.

  • Milo Thornberry (unverified)
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    Thanks so much for your good reporting during the election, especially in the last couple of days on the Merkley/Smith race! You've been a recent discovery for me. I've been sending links to your sight to other Oregon friends. Keep up your good work!!!

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    I last looked at the numbers at about 10 pm and think that Sal is right in his first comment: it will likely lose but either way it will be within the automatic recount margin.

    As for measure 61, I think the arguments would have been so fundamentally different without 57 on the ballot and it would have passed so hope we don't do too much Monday morning quarterbacking By the way, I understood the argument all along why we should vote for 57, I just couldn't bring myself to vote for either.

  • Eric Parker (unverified)
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    Don't be suprised if Mannix does a lawsuit over M61. If he does, all those Yes votes become wasted.

    And you wonder why I vote NO on mostly everything.

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    Tom, I guess you missed Ted Wheeler's earlier comment.

    We are lucky to be tabulating paper ballots, even if it takes some time. I'd rather have an accurate, verifiable count than a fast one.

    This delay hurts nobody, unless you think denial of instant gratification = harm.

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    No votes on 64 have now pulled ahead by 9 thousand plus.(from KGW site at 7:25 AM)

    Measure 64

    50% No (755170 votes)

    50% Yes (745729 votes)

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    Tom,

    I'm not sure Sue's or Ted's response entirely answer's your point which seems to go to why we are in the situation of limited equipment as well as the fact. But it is wrong to say it hasn't been faced on this blog, Jenni Simonis and Ted Wheeler and others have had some discussions about costs and trade-offs of more machines.

    Also, there have been several repeated comments that the closing of offices to outsiders and/or stopping reporting is not the same as stopping counting. It has been said several times that the counting has been continuous because this is required by law, and I have yet to see any evidence that it has stopped.

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    Why did the count stop at 6pm? Are these people going home at night? If it isn't counted by 6pm tonight, I think concerned citizens should invite them back to finish their work.

    No one went home, and no count stopped at 6 p.m. They were announcing updates all night long. (If you were looking at media reports, rather than the official count, it's possible that the media went home...)

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    That's fabulous news - and not to jinx things, but when all is said and done, we all owe a major shout out to Kevin Looper and the rest of the unsung heroes crew at Defend Oregon for pretty much running the tables on Sizemore and Mannix.

  • DB (unverified)
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    Mannix says in todays Statesman Journal that if 61 passes, he'll try to get courts to "blend" the measures together. I don't know if he'd succeed, but I really hope you're right Kari. If 61 fails, then Kevin will take credit for 57 and say he wanted it all along, but at least he'll shut up for now.

  • Eric Parker (unverified)
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    About those machines...

    Is there a way to count the ballots as they come in before election day? There is technology that would count the ballots, but not reveal the results of the early sent in ballots until after 8 PM on election night.

    In other words, they would be already counted, just not looked at or revealed until the counting hour has come.

  • Jeffrey (unverified)
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    The ratio of No:Yes on both Measure 64 & 61 continues to tilt toward No. The final difference will be large enough to preclude a recount on either one.

    Sal, time to revise before the 9 AM update.

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    @ Milo Thornberry

    What is wrong with people in Alaska that they would re-elect a convicted felon for Senate and elect a governor that doesn't know Africa is a continent or the countries that comprise NAFTA? Yikes.... is it just too cold for brains to function up there?

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    Measure 61 is going down, down, down too...

    Measure 61

    51% No (792268 votes)

    49% Yes (765126 votes)

  • Jason (unverified)
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    Well, if 64 is defeated I guess the unions can continue to bully their way through the system and use other people's money for political purposes; and continue to support the most liberal politicians in Oregon, and twist the truth to either pass or defeat certain ballot measures.

    I'm just thankful I don't belong to a union.

    I wonder what would've happened without all those union dollars out there for the DEMS? Kate Brown sure wouldn't have raised as much money.

    Oh, by the way, speaking of Kate Brown, all I can say is she's pretty damn lucky Rick Dancer wasn't more well known in the Portland area, especially in Clackamas and Washington counties (no Republican has a chance in Multnomah County as we all know). It's incredible that someone who's never been in Oregon politics before lost by such a close margin. Sure wasn't the landslide victory most expected!

  • Jeffrey (unverified)
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    Well, regardless of whether 64 is defeated, I guess big corporations and their trade groups like homebuilders can continue to bully their way through the system and use other people's money for political purposes; and continue to support the most Libertarian and anti-government politicians in Oregon, and twist the truth to either pass or defeat certain ballot measures.

  • Eric Parker (unverified)
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    Message to Sizemore, Parks, and Mannix, especially in the wake of the new news on M64 and M61:

    Sucks to be you, eh?

  • Cathy Kaufmann (unverified)
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    Jessica Stevens and the whole Defend Oregon team deserve a big round of applause for their fantastic work on the ballot measures. I am very, very grateful to them - thanks guys!

  • Jeffrey (unverified)
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    The Oregonian has called Measure 64 -- it fails: With 90% counted: 764,334 Yes 776,163 No

  • Joel H (unverified)
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    At least 11% or so (depending on the current count) of Oregonians voted Yes on 61 and also Yes on 57. I expect the true number is much higher. What were they thinking? How many simply read the ballot titles, how many were really trying to defeat 57, and how many were trying to defeat 61?

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    Sizemore and Mannix both defeated across the board. May they and their financiers spend ten thousand years in the purgatory of their own rancor and ill will!

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    This is great news, all of the Sizemore & Mannix initiatives tanked. Maybe this will discourage the financial sponsors from paying these jokers to game the system. Puts a real financial drag on the unions and charities that could be spent in more productive ways. Re: Peter's comment "Whoever is in charge of counting votes in Multco should be fired. The delay is a national embarrassment and disgrace." Why is it a disgrace to be methodical and accurate, especially after so much talk of a failed national voting system? What the hell is your hurry? Why would this be an embarrassment, are the other states talking smack about us (Hey Wyoming, it's Arkansas, I heard Oregon counts their ballots carefully!) Do you think Minn. should just call the Senate election for Coleman instead of determining the true will of the voters? They have an automatic recall law if the margin is less than .5%, that's a smart idea to preserve democracy. Were you satisfied with the vote counting in Florida in 2000? That worked out so well. We should be proud to have a generally well-executed election process in Oregon where when in doubt, we count count count!

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    Why is the comment entry stuck on italics?

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    Because somebody ("Jeffrey") forgot to close his tag. It's a deficiency of Typepad, that it doesn't check for closed tags. It's also a security hole.

  • murphy (unverified)
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    It’s time for a ballot measure of our own, folks, and here’s a proposal: Once a ballot measure is defeated at the polls, any future initiative that would substantially accomplish the same result would not be allowed on the ballot for ten years. The only exception would be for initiatives that have enough valid citizen signatures AND consent from the legislature or governor.

  • Rulial (unverified)
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    Jason, Measure 64 would have banned voluntary contributions to union political funds. These funds are separate from the membership dues, and nobody is required to contribute to them. If you belonged to a union, you absolutely wouldn't be required to pay money into them.

  • Rulial (unverified)
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    How did I manage to fix the italics and not the bold?

  • Matthew (unverified)
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    In this day and age, speed should not have to be compromised for accuracy. Get more ballot machines, so our counting can be as impressive as our mail-in voting.

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    DB,

    I believe it is illegal to begin counting ballots before the end of the voting period under current state law. Given the possibility of political game-playing, either with leaks to influence behavior of those not yet voting, or questions about the security of ballots and potential fraudulent manipulation of results, I'm inclined to think this is the right position. I don't trust your technological claim. I want simple technology that is easy to be understood by non-techie elections folks and poll-watchers, that is hard to game, and easy to check independently.

    The question is about investing money in the vote-counting process and its literal machinery, which arguably central to our democracy as a whole and worthy of high priority, vs. trade-offs with other needs in straitened financial circumstances for the county and state.

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    "Puts a real financial drag on the unions and charities that could be spent in more productive ways."

    That's why they won't go away. That's part of the goal. That and keeping Mr. Sizemore employed in the only thing he knows how to do.

    "The delay is a national embarrassment and disgrace."

    I think Georgia has that sewn up.

  • Kurt Chapman (unverified)
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    Kari, The Supreme Court will be hearing Pocatello education System V Idaho later this term. It basically is about the same underhanded attack on public employee unions and dues gathering. The Supremes should rule it as protected concerted activity subject to the Collective Bargaiing process and seal the fate of 64 as well.

  • Nathan (unverified)
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    You guys ever think they don't care about the measures and just want to waste your money when you fight them? So, either way they win and you lose, right?

  • Jim (unverified)
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    "I'm just thankful I don't belong to a union."--Jason

    Not me. Because I belong to a union I have higher wages and better benefits than those who do the same work I do but are not unionized. I am not sure why, but I like making more money and not having to shell out as much money for health insurance. Perhaps as strange, I want that for everybody.

  • DB (unverified)
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    Chris Lowe- whatchu talkin about? I'm not arguing with you! :)

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    Jason: "I'm just thankful I don't belong to a union."

    not, me: i wish there was a union i could join. my employer is a good guy, but i'm hostage, so to speak, to the decisions he makes -- with no one to protect me as a union would. the decline of the unions coincided with the rise of the neocons, if you have been paying any attention at all. maybe we could just get rid of the unions and let our military-corporate masters just run everything for us.

  • Nathan (unverified)
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    I work as GTF currently and we are unionized. I refuse to be full member because I dont like the money I put into the union going to political issues I disagree with.

    Also, while we were one of the first to unionize, and still one of the few, our benefits are less than those of universities without such unions. So, at least in my case the benefit costs me more than it benefits me.

  • Jason Skelton (unverified)
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    Thank goodness M64 failed. Unions and their employees do so much for Oregon. In a sense, Oregonians are all free riders on the dues paid to unions, but our state is better for it.

    (Just to be clear, I am not the Jason that posted above about not belonging to a union).

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    I added Measure 64 to the spreadsheet where I have Merkley's numbers. You can find it here.

    Apparently I was pretty tired after all this election stuff, and I slept 15 hours straight... but I'm up now and have completely updated the spreadsheet.

    Right now, M64 is failing by more than 16,000 votes (1.04%).

  • Jesse Barton (unverified)
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    According to the Secretary of State web page's unofficial numbers, as of 2:57 p.m. today Measure 61 failed by a vote of 49.55% "yes," and 50.45% "no." That's a difference of only 0.9%, but a loss is a loss and a win is a win.

    Without question, Multnomah County made the difference. Its people voted 34.36% "yes," and 65.64% "no." So let's have a big shout out to Multnomah County! You saved us from litigation, promised by Loren Parks's henchman, Kevin Mannix, to test the constitutionality of Measure 57's winner-take-all provision.

    We now could question the convential wisdom that referring a competing measure was necessary to defeat Measure 61. But there are two other far more important questions. One is whether the incoming legislature will retain, and fund, Measure 57's prison sentences. The legislature doesn't have to do any such thing. It instead could amend or even repeal Measure 57 by simple majority votes (because its sentences aren't protected by the two-thirds supermajority-vote requirement of Art. IV, sec. 33 of the Ore. Constitution).

    The second question is: In the tough budget climate it's going to be facing, will the legislature come through with the funding for treatment programs that the current legislature promised if the voters passed Measure 57?

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    Given how narrowly M61 appears to have lost, I have little doubt that had M57 not been there, M61 would have won.

    In that context I'd think the legislature should be very careful indeed about anything they might change regarding M57. If they create the space for storyline that goes "Democratic controlled legislature put up M57 to thwart M61, then Ds turned around and trashed M57, against clear popular will for tougher sentencing on property crimes," it will set things up for M61 to come back with a vengeance next time around and quite possibly lead to loss of many of this year's gains in the House.

    Anything that they do should be based on real efforts to understand well the crimes and threats and perceptions of threats that people are experiencing that led to support for one or both of these, and be sure that what they do increases people's security and feelings of security.

    I do think that applies to the treatment parts of the bill as well. It's crucial to reducing recidivism.

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    To complete that last thought, cutting treatment is apt simply to lead to higher costs in incarceration & not real savings.

  • Bernie Corrigan (unverified)
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    About GTF Unions:

    To Nathan: Al Mandelberg and I founded the first graduate student employee union to be recognized as a free standing bargaining agent in the United States at the University of Oregon in 1969. It was the GSEA and it went out of existence after several years for reasons I fail to understand. It was replaced by the current GTF union at the U of O. I invented the position name Graduate Teaching Fellow (GTF), which renamed the Teaching Assistant positions. This was to take advantage of IRS code in force at the time which didn't tax fellowships which required teaching as part of a degree program.

     The GSEA lobbied the Oregon legislature and got line itemed raises, which couldn't be diverted into faculty salaries, for the GTF's.  In hard bargainning we won a real grievance procedure, protection from predatory faculty members, a limited form of tenure, and health insurance.  The raises we won were applied percentage wise across all the universities in the Oregon System.  OSU had not stolen the raises appropriated for TA's, as the U of O had done, so salaries there were roughly twice what they were at Oregon at the time.  The union action at the U of O resulted in raises at OSU which were the same percentage as those at the U of O but much larger in dollars because of the higher base.  OSU TAs and RAs thus profited greatly from the union success at the U of O without doing anything themselves.  OSU has a history of treating its students somewhat better than does UO.
    
     I would guess from your note that you are at the U of O and making comparisons with salaries and benefits at OSU.  Be thankful you have a union because given the historical actions of the U of O toward its graduate student employees the situation would be bleak nearly beyond belief, just as it was when I arrived there back in 1968.
    
    <h2>Bernie</h2>

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