Senate '08: New poll from KATU, plus Smith's bizarre attack ad
Kari Chisholm
No link online yet, but KATU is reporting that their latest survey - in partnership with SurveyUSA - shows Merkley 49, Smith 42, Brownlow 5. I'll update as more info comes in.
Update: The SurveyUSA crosstabs are here. One key finding -- roughly 50% of the sample group told SurveyUSA that they had already voted, and among those, Merkley leads Smith 51-41.
Also, incidentally, it's Obama 57, McCain 38. Among those who've already voted, it's Obama 62, McCain 34.
I'm still trying to wrap my head around Gordon Smith's latest attack ad that appeared over the weekend. Apparently, he's so desperate that he's now resorted to attacking minor-party conservative Dave Brownlow as "too liberal" -- a charge that's laughable.
Here's Brownlow's absolutely priceless response:
I can certainly understand his desperation. Smith tried to steal Senator Wyden’s endorsement and got slapped down hard. He tried to hang on to the coattails of his old buddy, Barrack Obama [sic], who proceeded to throw him under the bus. Smith blew over $20 million on a juvenile media assault against Jeff Merkley, the other big spending liberal in this race, and he came up looking petty. Smith fought for, and won, an endorsement from a homosexual organization called the Log Cabin Republicans, but now wants to run away from them. Smith’s handlers have discovered the mathematical impossibility of him winning this election unless he takes every conservative vote from me. It looks like he may have waited too long to attempt his extreme makeover.”I have been called a lot of names, but ‘liberal’ isn’t one of them. I have called for the complete dismantling of the welfare/warfare state. I have called for a constitutional budget, which would cut federal spending by 85%. I propose that we move Social Security and Medicare back the states and the people. I have called for shutting down the private banking cartel misnamed the Federal Reserve. I have called for abolishing the IRS. I started a pro-life group called Life Support, my motto is “No Abortions, No Excuses”, and I have a couple of trips through our kangaroo court system as proof. My second amendment motto (I received an ‘A’ grade from Gun Owners of America) is ‘the only guns we can ban are the ones that require towing.’ If that is the new definition of liberal, mark me down as one - please!
Meanwhile, Jeff Merkley has an on-camera endorsement from Barack Obama in his latest ad (and is the only U.S. Senate candidate in the country to receive such a plug.)
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12:43 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
[Full disclosure: My firm built Jeff Merkley's website, but I speak only for myself.]
Oct 27, '08
My guess: he's actually publicizing Brownlow as an alternative "liberal" to Merkley.
Oct 27, '08
I like those numbers, building on the earlier SUSA poll a couple of weeks ago on Oct. 13, 46-41. Plus 3 for Merkley and plus 1 for Smith.
1:02 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
So, if the Constitution Party is too liberal for Gordon Smith, what does that say about ol' Gordon's true political views? What would Smith consider "moderate"??? What a shameless chameleon that guy is.
I heard Smith on the radio today talking about his time in the senate with nostalgia and in the past tense. He must be watching the polls.
Oct 27, '08
I will be glad when it's all over. My TV will then be free from these political shackles and I can, once again, relish the inner, deeper meanings of a Cealis commercial.
Oct 27, '08
Breaking: Ted Stevens guilt on all counts. Count one more seat for the Dems in the Senate.
Oct 27, '08
I've suggested Smith run for Governor if the Senate thing doesn't work out, but I doubt the GOP will have anything to do with him after next week.
1:21 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
Interesting Gordon was on the radio today. Jeff Merkley was on "Think Out Loud" on OPB, an invitation to which Gordon Smith "refused repeated invitations". Which radio station was Smith on?
1:27 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
I would concede the point to Dave Brownlow, he's no liberal. He sounds like a high octane nutter.
Steve
Oct 27, '08
Merkley (or any other Democrat's) problem challenging Smith is that Smith is the "Republican that Democrats can vote for," and that his conservative base would always reliably vote for him. Merkley's challenge was to get enough moderate, conservative, and anti-partisan Democrats to "see the light" and abandon Smith to a rapidly-shrinking and aging Republican constituency.
This ad is great news for us: it suggests that the Smith campaign is worried that Republican conservatives are not flocking to their 'natural' candidate, and that Smith recently 'moderated' himself out of a base. A base problem used to be the last thing I expected Smith to suffer from; maybe Oregon is/will be no longer considered a swing state on statewide races!
1:34 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
I love the part of the ad that states: "'Sleaziness' says Reinhard of the Oregonian." You have to admire the feedback loop quality of that attack!
Step 1: Gordon Smith issues talking points decrying "sleaziness" of Jeff Merkley
Step 2: David Reinhard serves as stenographer of talking points issued by Gordon Smith
Step 3: Gordon Smith cuts an ad in which he states "'Sleaziness' says Reinhard of the Oregonian."
and on to Step 4: Lars Larson says even the Oregonian is saying Jeff Merkley is sleazy.
1:35 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
I didn't hear Smith doing a new interview, just a news clip of comments he'd apparently made in the last couple of days. No clear attribution though, sorry.
1:48 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
Way to go Dave Brownlow. He very well may help defeat Gordon Smith. Which has been his #1 goal for running. His number #2 goal, getting himself elected, probably is a bit far of a reach.
Oct 27, '08
The same SUSA poll has Obama over McCain in Oregon by 19 pts. 57-38. Obama might sweep McCain by 20 pts. in Oregon! Those are some coat tails for Merkley to ride. The Obama ad may really help Merkley on those final votes. They should be playing that one over and over.
Oct 27, '08
Classy Constitutionalist Dave Brownlow merits a high percentage of support, if not for just running such a respectably clean and honest campaign. Go Dave, Go!
Oct 27, '08
Am I the only one disoriented by the two-fer attack ad? I can't recall ever seeing a candidate attack two different opponents with two different arguments in the same ad. It's really strange, as if the candidate's staff can't identify the biggest threat to their guy. Gordo's swinging in every possible direction at this point, and he can't give either opponent his full attention. Kudos to Brownlow for making it onto Gordo's attack list.
Oct 27, '08
As a follow-up, the effect of this ad reminds me of the medley on The Beatles' Abbey Road album. (By way of clarification, the songs 'You Never Give Me Your Money,' 'Sun King,' and 'Mean Mr. Mustard' all run together on the second side of the album.) Jeff Merkley and Dave Brownlow have about as much to do with each other as the Sun King and Mean Mr. Mustard. Medleys of disparate subjects can make for good art, but in politics they're sort of awkward.
For background: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aE0kfGE7Y4k
3:07 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
Dave Brownlow is no nutter. he's an intelligent, compassionate person who tries to deal directly with the issues. he does not go around making noises about his beliefs; he becomes engaged socially & politically. he is, in other words, progressive in his approach to dealing with the difficult issues facing the state and nation.
that said, the only things i am in agreement with him on are to end the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan & to charge Bush et al with war crimes. many on the left (and even in the center) share those beliefs. Dave's main problem politically (imo) is that he wants to impose his religious views on society (most notably regarding choice). but the fact that he is open to communication with other people -- such as me -- is a sign of hope. he'll never back down from what he believes is right, but he will remain civil and part of the process (i hope).
Dave's a good guy not because he may help deep-six Gordo but because he's a good guy. with political views 180 from my own.
not a nutter; not deserving of any name-calling.
3:41 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
I'm inclined to second T.A. on this one. Ideology aside, Brownlow seems like a straight shooter. Fear him or love him, at least you know where you stand with him. I've always said that I'd rather vote for someone whom I disagree with but who I believe is being honest then for someone saying what I want to hear but who I don't feel I can trust.
Oct 27, '08
If Merkley would knock off those damn robocalls (three thus far to my home number which is listed on the fed do-not-call list) he would stand a better chance. Seriously is Gordo robocalling against himself? That would explain this idiotic strategy of pissing off blue voters in the home stretch.
Can we all agree that pure-message robocalls are not productive?
Oct 27, '08
I work for the Merkley Campaign and I'd just like to set the record straight, the Merkley Campaign is not conducting any robocalls.
Our opponent Gordon Smith has paid FLS over $150,000 for their services. FLS is the same firm that conducted the anti-Obama robocalls for the McCain Campaign. Karl Rove's Freedoms Watch is also conducting robocalls against Merkley as well as the anti-labor group Employee Freedom.
I am the netroots director for OR-Sen candidate Jeff Merkley
4:34 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
"I have called for the complete dismantling of the welfare/warfare state. I have called for a constitutional budget, which would cut federal spending by 85%. I propose that we move Social Security and Medicare back the states and the people. I have called for shutting down the private banking cartel misnamed the Federal Reserve. I have called for abolishing the IRS. I started a pro-life group called Life Support, my motto is “No Abortions, No Excuses”, and I have a couple of trips through our kangaroo court system as proof. My second amendment motto (I received an ‘A’ grade from Gun Owners of America) is ‘the only guns we can ban are the ones that require towing.’"
Mr. Brownlow may be a civil, decent human being, who is intellectually honest as well, all of which are admirable qualities in another person. By his own words, however, he appears to be suggesting that we should all be living in something approaching a state of nature, except, of course, where all abortions are illegal (that must be one of the few powers left to the government) and where all of us have the right to bear anything under a howitzer. I'm sorry, but res ipsa loquitur; that's cuckoo for cocoa puffs country.
Oct 27, '08
Jeff and all: assuming this quote above is veritas, why is it we call this fellow decent and spite Smith? This, if truth, sounds an awful like those people who make me afraid as a woman, as a woman who does not walk a merely boy/girl line, as a woman who might just marry a man or woman of colour again, a mother of a draft age man [of colour] etc.. etc...
Decent he may be4, but gosh... these are the values we have been vituperating without a moment's rest!
"ellsebury", who dares not post as himself, if you are going to drop such dungbombs, then kindly and thoroughly cite the source.
5:15 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
Rebecca,
Here's the document from which Kari quoted in his post.
Dave Brownlow's press release
S
Oct 27, '08
Yipe. EGAD.
Thanks, S N-R-J-E
Oct 27, '08
Bill O'Reilly thinks Oregon is a toss-up.
Seriously. Wow.
6:13 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
Before any one gets too carried away, the crosstabs imply some really weird data. 66% from Portland metro? 47% Dems? 50% already voted? 50% are college grad? My guess is that all the calls were to the 503 area code. Regareless, this does not accurately reflect Oregon.
Oct 27, '08
Seems Smith thinks he has a better chance with Brownlow voters than the Dems'. That's a job well do to you all, imho. And a vote for the last-resort fall-back theory about what makes Smith tick that regularly gets trotted out; he really is completely out of touch. It really looks like there's nothing more to it than, "if I add his number to mine...oh, look that makes it even".
Kind of figures. Once G. Smith decided J. Smith wasn't a schizophrenic attention seeking teenaged-male from an area where making up new religions and cults were what that kind of kid did before there were high school massacres to plan, almost anything else is plausible.
And the numbers also indicate a bias in intelligence towards early voters...
Calls? Come on; do you know how much a sample defined by people that will answer a telemarketing/survey call is biased to the right?
Oct 27, '08
I'd like to believe that Obama has a 62-34 edge among people who have already voted, but looking at the county-by-county early vote totals makes me wonder. As of October 26, Multnomah County had returned 17.1% of its ballots, while the rest of the state (excluding MultCo) had returned 18.5%. How can Obama be up 28 points so far if the MultCo returns are lagging?
Oct 27, '08
I noticed this too. My theory is that by "approving the message" at the beginning and having that black space in between the Merkley and Brownlow portions, Gordo's trying to make it look like the Brownlow part isn't part of his ad. Obviously hoping that people don't notice the small print at the bottom of the screen.
11:07 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
Actually, your comparison was bad, since the number you were using didn't include as many days as the state's number. Multnomah County's number was as of Friday morning before they opened (and therefore didn't include anything that came in on Friday). The state's numbers were updated on the weekend so that they included the ballots that came in on Friday around the state.
The comparison you want is 18% for the state and 22% for Multnomah County.
11:36 p.m.
Oct 27, '08
Ok, can we say DESPERATE? There's just been 5 ads in a row from the Smith crowd as I am sitting here watching KATU news.
So disgusting. That would really turn me off if I was an undecided voter.
1:43 a.m.
Oct 28, '08
"Am I the only one disoriented by the two-fer attack ad? I can't recall ever seeing a candidate attack two different opponents with two different arguments in the same ad. It's really strange, as if the candidate's staff can't identify the biggest threat to their guy."
I think the ad is a little strange as well. It almost has a disconnected feel to the message. I'm sure they are worried about losing votes to Brownlow, but the last thing you want to do if you are one of the two candidates is mention him by name, especially in a TV ad. Even though it is negative, it is in a way giving Brownlow free exposure. It makes me question the sanity of those running Smith's campaign.
1:44 a.m.
Oct 28, '08
sorry I meant to say,
"if you are one of the two major candidates", I didn't mean to imply Brownlow wasn't a candidate. My bad.
2:28 a.m.
Oct 28, '08
John Calhoun wrote: Before any one gets too carried away, the crosstabs imply some really weird data. 66% from Portland metro? 47% Dems? 50% already voted? 50% are college grad? My guess is that all the calls were to the 503 area code. Regareless, this does not accurately reflect Oregon.
John, you may be right.
Regarding the location -- we don't know whether SurveyUSA means the Portland metro area or the Portland media market when they say "Portland". Most pollsters I know talk in terms of media markets (since that's the unit that they buy advertising in) and "Portland" includes most of the state's population - from Astoria to Burns.
Portland DMA includes these counties: Baker, Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Crook, Gilliam, Harney, Hood River, Jefferson, Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Multnomah, Polk, Sherman, Tillamook, Union, Wasco, Washington, Wheeler, Yamhill -- plus these counties in Washington State: Clark, Cowlitz, Klickitat, Skamania, Wahkiakum
Oct 28, '08
Anyone here who thinks Brownlow is an okay guy will help you understand where the far left meets the far right. If you can subscribe to these psoitions you shouldn't be in the Democratic Party:
Here are Brownlow's key positions:
He believes that abortions should always be illegal. His number one priority is “End the abortion holocaust: Nearly 50,000,000 unborn Americans have been murdered.” “Of this we can be sure - there WILL BE an accounting. May GOD have mercy on America when the payment comes due,” he says.
He would eliminate income tax and most other federal taxes.
On federal crime, he says, “With very few exceptions, such as: treason, patent infringements, piracy on the high seas and counterfeiting, (counterfeiting done by anyone other than the Federal Reserve that is!) the federal government has NO authority over local law enforcement. Crime issues belong ‘to the states respectively, or to the people.’” (That last statement refers to the 10th amendment.) On drugs, he says, “The federal ‘drug war’ has been a spectacular failure, leading only to a loss of liberty for those of us who do not use mind-altering drugs. It is time to end this federal intervention in state and community issues.”
On education he says, “Government schools are designed to churn out an annual crop of fearful, obedient servants-- who believe; they came from slime, their parents are liars, and there is no God.”
He says, “The federal government has no authority to deal with employment or affirmative action issues.” On the environment he says, “The Constitution limits federal property to the area of Washington DC, forts, stockyards, and other needful buildings. The lands belong to the states, who are responsible to look over it.”
He has indicated that he believes that providing health care is not a responsibility of the federal government. About Social Security he says, “Our social security system is an illegal Ponzi scheme that is trillions of dollars in the hole. It is time to obey the law and let the people handle their own retirement.” He would abolish all federal welfare programs.
On illegal immigration, he says, “Defending our borders from invasion is one of the few legitimate roles of the federal government. We need to hold our Congressmen accountable to obey the law.”
On foreign aid, he says, “International Aid programs should be eliminated.”
5:58 p.m.
Oct 28, '08
Josh et al,
Admiring Brownlow's personal qualities is N-O-T the same as admiring his positions or his ideology, much less agreeing with them.
As the old saying goes, even a broken clock is right twice per day. Recognizing that the clock is broken and is not a reliable source of information on time doesn't mean that therefore one can't admire the case it's in.
<h2>Please check the logical fallacies in at the door on the way in. They'll still be there when you leave if you really want them back...</h2>