Senate '08: An "insurmountable lead" for Merkley?
Kari Chisholm
Last night, KGW talked at length about the latest developments in Oregon's U.S. Senate race -- including an in-depth discussion by Chuck Todd, NBC's national political director.
Chuck Todd explains why Smith is now attacking Dave Brownlow, the conservative Constitution Party candidate:
Look, Gordon Smith has run out of votes - he's running out of votes to get to enough to top Merkley. He's behind; they know it. ...There's concern out here among Washington Republicans that Merkley's got potentially an insurmountable lead.
L&C's Robert Eisinger explains why Barack Obama has done an on-camera endorsement in only one U.S. Senate race in the country:
No doubt: Obama is saying 'You know what, this is a close race, This might matter. This might be the 60th vote that I need in the U.S. Senate.' Obama is sticking his neck out and supporting Merkley.
Watch the three-minute clip:
A few more notes from the Senate race:
- I keep hearing reports about pro-Merkley robocalls. Spread the word: The Merkley campaign is NOT doing any robocalls of any sort. It's likely that these calls, if they exist, are bogus and designed to drive Democratic turnout down. There are least three anti-Merkley groups doing robocalls in Oregon.
- Gordon Smith is backpedaling and waffling and weaseling all over the place when it comes to his problem of hiring illegal immigrants to work at his frozen-food plant. WW has the story.
- Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) will be back in Oregon to campaign with Jeff Merkley today. He'll be in Bend and in Talent, where Merkley will finally hit the 100th town on his 100-town tour.
- Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) will be in Oregon on Wednesday to campaign with Merkley in Eugene and Salem.
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1:54 a.m.
Oct 28, '08
[Full disclosure: My firm built Jeff Merkley's website, but I speak only for myself.]
Oct 28, '08
Kari,
In light of the comment in the previous post about the crosstabs being a bit suspicious:
"Before any one gets too carried away, the crosstabs imply some really weird data. 66% from Portland metro? 47% Dems? 50% already voted? 50% are college grad? [] This does not accurately reflect Oregon."
and your subsequent reply to it affirming the suspicion, I think it is way, way too premature to say that Merkley has this thing locked up... no?
9:45 a.m.
Oct 28, '08
It is just ancedotal information, but on two successive Sunday's when I was out canvassing for Jeff I found more support for Jeff on the second Sunday. This was in similar neighborhoods in East Portland. On the first Sunday, every voter was supporting Obama, but some were uncertain about Jeff. The next Sunday (Oct. 26)everyone was supporting both candidates without equivocation. These were Dems and independents. It is a small sample, but the message seems to be getting through.
Oct 28, '08
So Smith is doing robo calls in Oregon. I saw that on the web several weeks ago but only one reference.
Oct 28, '08
Smith's problems with his work force at his frozen food plant notwithstanding, I find the latest radio ad from the DSCC offensive. While it does point out the illegal worker issue, it then goes on to feed the xenophobes regarding "protecting our borders". If I didn't know better (and didn't hear the DSCC credit at the end of the piece) I'd think it was the produced by Tom Tancredo and the gang. Disgusting.
Oct 28, '08
I received a barely intelligible live, scripted call from a call center in Salt Lake City, anti-Smith, but no mention of Merkley. It was pretty unimpressive. I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't a covert Smith operation.
<h2>On another note KPTV and Tim Hibbitts are out with a poll today, Merkley up by 5 pts, 45-40, 3 for Brownlow. I can't imagine there are that many undecided.</h2>