Senate '08: $2 million edition
Kari Chisholm
- The Democratic Party of Oregon is demanding that Gordon Smith release the public records of his Oregon travel. It seems that the Smith campaign told the Oregonian's Jeff Mapes that he's visited "more than 20 counties in each of the last three years" - while the DPO's accounting shows a much smaller number of visits. (By way of comparison, Ron Wyden's listing of town hall meetings is entirely public.)
- Jeff Merkley announced that his campaign had raised over $2 million in the last three months - more than any Democrat has ever raised for a federal race in a single quarter. In particular, the netroots have been a strong source of funds - with some $850,000 coming in online.
- Pundit Larry Sabato has upgraded the Senate race to Toss-Up, up from Leans Republican.
- Here's the latest ad from Jeff Merkley:
- And the latest ad from the DSCC's IE team:
Lots more news coverage on the jump...
- Make no mistake: Gordon Smith wants to end right-to-choose for women.
- The Register-Guard endorsed Merkley and explained why he's come from behind in this campaign:
Three things are fueling Merkley’s increasing momentum:
The Bush administration’s anything-goes economic policies, which Smith has supported with clockwork consistency, have contributed to a meltdown in the U.S. economy that worsens by the day. Smith has been a reliable Republican vote for administration tax cuts and spending that erased a $128 billion surplus at the beginning of the Bush presidency and has led to a projected $409 billion deficit for 2009. ...
Smith can’t simply wish away his association with a president he has loyally supported by pointing to some contrarian votes. ... For the seven years that his Senate membership overlaps Bush’s presidency, Smith has received an 85 percent rating from CQ for his level of presidential support. ...
And Jeff Merkley has been erasing his name-recognition deficit the old-fashioned way, by pounding the pavement from Astoria to Ashland and from Beaverton to Baker City, introducing himself to Oregonians and explaining his platform. Clearly, many voters like what they’re seeing and hearing from the speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives.
- The Wall Street Journal talks about our Senate race and the "tricky politics of the bailout." In particular, they note a hilarious new NRSC ad that claims that Jeff Merkley is responsible for deficit spending in Oregon. Ooops. As Jeff Mapes notes:
Except, that's not really the case. Oregon, like almost all states, can't run a deficit like the federal government. So the state continued to balance its budget while Merkley was speaker.
And the increase in debt? Well, as the report cited by the ad makes clear, the biggest increase in the debt came because the state used low interest rates to refinance its long-term pension obligations. The state says it is a smart financial move that will save millions.
The real hoot is even trying to compare this to the record of the Bush administration, which has seen the deficit increase from $5.7 trillion to more than $10 trillion. And, of course, it's come about through deficit spending, aided and abetted by Congress, which Republicans have controlled for most of the last eight years.
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4:59 p.m.
Oct 7, '08
[Full disclosure: My firm built JeffMerkley.com and StopGordonSmith.com, but I speak only for myself.]
Oct 7, '08
I gave $100.00 two weeks ago. Now it's time to give Jeff Merkley another $100.00.
Gordon Smith can be gone in four weeks. Let's make sure Jeff has the $$$$ to get to the end of the race.
8:32 p.m.
Oct 7, '08
off-topic, but the 3rd person speaking is the wonderful Shirley Vandermosten, and her husband, John, working class hero if there ever was one — well, that's his back you see sitting behind her. we spent several hours in Bijou one day shooting all kinds of good stuff; glad to see Shirley getting used & speaking from her heart.
8:39 p.m.
Oct 7, '08
Yea, John and Shirley are in two of the DSCC commercials. They're two of the best dems I know.
Oct 7, '08
Posted this elsewhere, but thought it might be useful here too...
Just got a push poll from Smith.
Claimed to be from Western Watts Caller ID from AZ 928.268.3060
Started as a poll, then hard a hard right and asked all sorts of negative "poll" questions about Merkly.
Clearly wasn't a real poll, but a push poll.
Told the caller it wasn't a poll, but a push poll and to tell Smith his push poll sucked.
-Greg
Oct 7, '08
Heh. Good one Greg. And they said -- ?
12:24 a.m.
Oct 8, '08
Greg --
How many questions in the poll? And did they open or close with a bunch of demographic questions?
Rather than hanging up on a poll call, write everything down. Then come here and post it. That's a much more effective way to fight back.
Oct 8, '08
Stimulating dialog going on right now on Charlie Rose. Great points, none of it getting nasty and mean-spirited, yet cuts to the bone from all directions.
Some points:
McCain = 20th C man; Obama = 21st C man - who is the man for the moment?
Rose, a man after my own heart: passionate disappointment that neither of them willing to step off the edge and "go there" on the questions most pressing to the world at this time.
McCain's passions in the international and deregulation; Obama's passions located where the people live at this moment (fortuitous placement of predilictions and expertise for Obama).
McCain's wooden, sloganeering delivery particularly showcased in this setting.
Obama = relative level of detail; McCain = diffusion of focus under scrutiny, probing by moderatior or question.
Time for bed, can't watch the rest. Really worthwhile, folks, and much better than the usual pap from The Primtime Usual Suspects media pundits.
Vid not available yet, but here's the URL -
http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/10/07/1/live-coverage-of-the-second-presidential-debate
1:03 p.m.
Oct 8, '08
Greg-
It seems unlikely that was a push poll.
One more time for everyone: just because a poll includes negative messages, does not make it a push poll. Campaigns use polls like this one to test negative messages against their opponents. Also, campaigns use these polls to test negative messages (and rebuttals) against themselves, although not usually this late in the season.
Push polls aren't actually polls at all. They are messages (usually negative) targeted at voters who may still be swayed. They are advertisements directed specifically at you. Push polls don't collect any useful information; questions they ask are perfunctory (e.g. George Bush: great president or greatest president?).
By its very nature, a push poll is a low budget way of getting out your message. It's usually done by campaign volunteers, or more recently, by robocall. A campaign conducting a push poll wouldn't waste money paying a call center to do it.
The bottom line on this one is that it seems legit if it was conducted by Western Wats, which is a call center pollsters (and other businesses) use to conduct surveys. Western Wats is based in Utah, and it is widely reported that Gordon Smith's Portland-based pollster, Bob Moore, uses them to conduct surveys.
So let me echo Kari's admonition: if you get a poll (or a push poll), grab a pencil and write everything down. Then, call the campaign which is the subject of the negative message and let them know. It is invaluable to them to know not only that the poll is in the field, but the content of the poll as well - which is very closely held information.
Oct 8, '08
Unfortunatly I can't recall exact questions, but
Started asking about demographics and such. Then questions about Presidential, Gov and Senate preferences.
This was all quite innocuous.
Then questions - 6-8 like these.
Merkeley raised taxes forty-bazillion times on poor hardworking business owners. Would you be more or less likely to support Merkley.
Merkley tried to voted to tax pretty snuggly bunnies after setting them on fire. Would you be more or less likely to vote for Merkley.
Etc, etc.
It had the sheen of a real poll, but all the post veneer questions were OBVIOUSLY intended to give negative impressions on Merkley.
The questions were harshly worded and were not at all neutral. The intent was obvious.
I'm sorry that I don't have more exact wording, but IIRC all were on taxes, claiming Merkley had raised or supported the raising of them.
-Greg
Oct 9, '08
Greg:
"IIRC"?
Please decode.
Thanks.
1:56 a.m.
Oct 9, '08
IIRC = If I Remember Correctly.
9:14 a.m.
Oct 9, '08
Greg-
That's definitely a real poll. A push poller wouldn't care a a lick what you think about other electeds or any demographic info.
What this says to me is that Smith is in triage mode now. If his campaign is competent in the least (and they are), they know which voters they need to move, and they're trying to figure out how to do that.
<h2>So, I'm curious about your demos. Age? Party affiliation? Hometown? You don't have to tell the world here, but keep it in mind that you are probably the kind of person Gordon Smith thinks he can move with his anemic and antiquated tax message.</h2>