Rasmussen Poll: Merkley continues to climb
Kari Chisholm
In the latest poll from Rasmussen, they've got the Senate race tied 47% to 47%.
Tied? Tied?! It'd be easy to express some consternation about this poll. After all, SurveyUSA and Research 2000 have both had Jeff Merkley up by five points - 46-41 and 45-40 respectively.
But here's the thing to note: Rasmussen has consistently had the best results for Gordon Smith - and he's been flat all year. Meanwhile, Merkley's steadily climbed from 30 in February, to 34 in March, to 38 in June, to 39 in August, to 45 in September, to 47 in October. (Only the July poll seems to be an internal anomaly, with Merkley up 43-41.)
Here's the Pollster.com trend-line chart - showing only the Rasmussen poll.
That said, this is no time to take the foot off the gas.
According to OPB, Gordon Smith's spent over $10 million, including nearly $5 million in the last quarter - while Jeff Merkley has spent just $4 million total, with just $2 million in the last quarter.
Voters start voting this weekend, and former Vice President Al Gore is arriving next Friday to help.
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connect with blueoregon
3:44 p.m.
Oct 16, '08
[Full disclosure: My firm built Jeff Merkley's website, but I speak only for myself.]
Oct 16, '08
Don't take your foot of the gas, indeed. It's up to you all on the western side of the Cascades to make it happen. Here in Deschutes County, I think Obama is going to win, but I can't be certain about Merkley. The eastern side identifies with Smith too much as if he is "our" senator.
Oct 16, '08
Is Al riding his bike to get here? or is he burning more jet fuel. Live Video Conferencing might work. He and his wife Tipper live in two properties: a 10,000-square-foot, 20-room, eight-bathroom home in Nashville, and a 4,000-square-foot home in Arlington, Va. (He also has a third home in Carthage, Tenn.) For someone rallying the planet to pursue a path of extreme personal sacrifice, Gore requires little from himself.
Oct 16, '08
Hi, all.
I saw this poll today, and I was curious about the crosstabs, since I know Rasmussen leans GOP at times. Here's the press release: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/oregon/election_2008_oregon_senate
Also, I don't think Scott Rasmussen has fully factored in how many Dems have been added to the rolls since '04. We had a 2-point disadvantage in '04; the rolls now stand at 43% Dem, 32% Republican, and 25% Unaffiliated. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/15/oregon-sets-registration_n_134790.html
So, I took Rasmussen's partisan breakdown and readjusted for the new party ID (I assumed 7% undecided among unaffiliated, since the Dems were uncommitted at 7% and the R's at 4% in the original poll).
Here are the new numbers: Merkley: 48.3 Smith: 45.7
Also, note that this poll doesn't take into consideration Dave Brownlow, who will siphon at least a couple percentage points from Smith this November.
So Merkley's still doing all right. Just be sure to work your butts off for him! Volunteer, donate, whatever you can do.
Cheers
Oct 16, '08
I am finding myself downright giddy at the prospect that we will no longer have the stain of Gordo on our state.
Oct 16, '08
In the Survey USA ( I consider superior than Rasmussen in most states) poll that came out yesterday, Brownlow was taking single digits, most of which I assume would be from Smith. Rasmussen has not taken account of the massive voter registration numbers as it should this election year.
It is noteworthy also that Survey USA in the state of Washington gave a debate victory to Obama by 52-30, mirroring national polling on the presidential debate.
Oct 16, '08
Off topic but relevant: Breaking!!- Washington Post Endorses Barack Obama for President, tomorrow's Editorial;
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603436_pf.html
Oct 16, '08
Y'all are invited to come to the longshore hall Monday night and enjoy a great barbecue and canvass for Jeff Merkley and No on 64. It starts at 5:30, will feature Gov. Barbara Roberts, Trent Lutz and the someday-famous Graham Trainor from the No on 64 campaign.
If you have never had beef brisket and fixings served by longshore workers, you are in for a treat. We are canvassing N and NE Portland. If you want to come, let us know so we can feed you: 503-224-9310.
<h2>2435 NW Front Ave. in Portland</h2>