Punditology: General Election Edition

Kari Chisholm FacebookTwitterWebsite

You're smart. You're political. When people whisper, "that's what THEY say," you're the one they're talking about.

Can you believe this election is almost over? With just a week left, it's time for another edition of the Punditology Challenge.

Will the big swing states be won by Barack Obama or John McCain? Where will the Democrats win key U.S. Senate seats? What will happen in the Oregon House? And what about all those ballot measures?

Correctly predict the the election results and we'll make you famous. You could be the next great Oregon TV pundit! There's no money in it, but if your crystal ball is the finest of them all - we'll bow down before your greatness and proclaim it to the world.

The deadline for your picks is Friday at midnight. So make your picks now, before it's too late!

Good luck!

  • (Show?)

    KC, You can't get out of the survey to register. It keeps starting over at the beginning...

  • (Show?)

    340 is the landslide number? Come on, BHO's gonna get 396! (Or 331, the more modest prediction I'm actually making.)

    I predicted that the Dems would get 58 Senate seats. That seemed so schockingly high I had a hard time doing it.

    I always lose because I'm ignorant of hte state legislative races. If only someone polled them! (I suspect that the real insiders actually have access to polling that we lowly laymen never get to see. And that's why I lose this damn thing ever year. To take one example--does door knockin' Rick Goche really stand a chance? He's a great candidate, but I haven't the faintest clue what the folks on the Coast think of him.)

  • (Show?)

    Jeff:

    Yea, I always end up so focused on a few races that I don't know enough about the other races. This year is even worse since I didn't work with the coordinated campaign like I usually do.

  • Bill R. (unverified)
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    This from Scott Elliot of Election Projection, a wingnut pundit but nevertheless historically accurate: http://www.electionprojection.com/index.shtml

    "Eight days from Election Day, here is this blogger's conclusion: Barack Obama will win this election in a landslide. He will capture at least 350 electoral votes and win the popular vote by 7% or more. McCain may benefit from some measure of the Bradley Effect, but that advantage will be overwhelmed by African-American turnout, Palin-induced defections by moderates, and under-funded, unenthusiastic GOP get-out-the-vote efforts. This week's update shows Obama with a 375-163 electoral vote edge.

    Senate: Three weeks in a row now the projected make-up of the Senate has stood at 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans and 2 Independents. All eight of the projected Democratic takeovers in the Senate remain probable as of this update. "

  • Jim H (unverified)
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    Darn it, I tried to control myself and wait until Friday so I could see more polling - but I just couldn't resist. I've been waiting in anticipation for this to be posted. Don't ask me why, I just love these.

    I went way, way out on a limb and had Obama picking off leaning-McCain states like GA, MT, ND and even AZ (given the polls that came out today). We'll see if that pans out - no guts no glory, right?

    I also had the Dems winning 58 senate seats with the final one (between KY, GA and MS) being GA - though I think that will go to a run-off. What a circus that will be!

    Thanks to Carla for writing up that Oregon House race post - that really helped with all the local races!

    BTW, am I the only one that describes myself on those things as "Political Junkie"? None of the other descriptions fit, so I always go with "Other" and write this in. I would have thought there would be enough of us that are just junkies that this would be an option by now.

  • Kate (unverified)
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    To Jeff Alworth-

    <h2>Door Knockin' Goche does stand a chance down here on the South Coast. He's been working his tail off down here not only doing the door knocking, but he has been attending as many events as possible and getting involved in many more ways than we know. His name recognition has grown immensely and his website stays updated quite often as people check it. He's had many interviews with newspapers and has attended lots of forums so people can hear what he's talking about.</h2>

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