Portland Tuned Out Obama's Infomercial
Jeff Alworth
A lot of people watched Obama's infomercial last night, just not a lot in Portland. Across the 56 largest media markets, the infomercial attracted over a fifth of all eyeballs, drawing a rating of 21.7. That's substantially less than the debates got, but it's not bad for an infomercial. But here's the odd thing, of those 56 markets, guess which was dead last?
Among the top 56 local metered markets, the Baltimore market had the largest TV audience, with a household rating of 31.3, while the Portland market had the lowest household rating: 14.2.
Nielson has a .pdf of all the markets, highlighting those in swing states. It does seem like swing-state cities got higher viewership: of the cities exceeding the national average for viewership, 16 were in swing states; those at or below the national average only had 11. Only two of the ten least-watched shows were in swing states. But still, this is a town that turned out 75,000 fans to see Obama in the flesh. Why were we last? And, to link this to yesterday's post, does this have anything to do with the lagging number of returned ballots so far this year? Hmmm....
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Oct 30, '08
I'm guessing that a lot of people are like me. We've already made our mind up to vote for Obama, filled in and mailed our ballots. I wasn't expecting anything new and I still have a lot to do before Halloween. :)
Oct 30, '08
I heard 3 things from folks who didn't walk the Obama-mercial:
They were too busy doing GOTV work, canvassing and phone-banking to watch.
A couple of people told me they thought it was a live event so they tuned in at 5pm and then thought they must have the wrong day when it didn't come on.
Many said "why watch it live?" I can YouTube it later or catch it on any number of websites later in the evening.
As for the ballot returns, the main thing I'm hearing is that the Ballot Measures are holding up a lot of votes...especially the 57/61 debate (vote yes or no on both, vote for one and not the other, etc).
1:01 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
What can I say, he's no Ross Perot. Where were his charts and graphs?
Oct 30, '08
I suspect there was less interest here in Oregon because about half of the people who are going to vote have already voted. If the infomercial was run the night before ballots dropped, I suspect there would have been much greater viewership.
1:09 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
Seems to me there are two answers.
OPB reported at 5 p.m. that it was happening "right now", even though it wasn't on for another three hours.
The only exception to that was MSNBC, but Portland is one of the markets where Comcast has moved MSNBC over to the premium digital package, rather than basic cable (where Fox is.)
Plus, maybe, because so many people saw him live him May, they didn't need to see him live on TV last night.
1:17 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
Jeff --
A quick review of the chart with an eye toward timezones reveals that the tape delay was probably the issue.
The Eastern and Central timezones saw it live, while Mountain and Pacific saw it tape delayed.
Of the top 26 markets, none were in the Mountain or Pacific timezones.
Oct 30, '08
I voted for him as soon as I got my ballot, but I watched the whole thing on YouTube last night. I got home too late to see it on TV.
Or, maybe it was because we were all doing GOTV phone calls for him! :)
1:24 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
What can I say, he's no Ross Perot.
Though he did beat Perot by about 5 rating points.
Kari, I think your first point is very astute. I bet that had a big influence. Oregon leads the nation in public radio listenership.
Oct 30, '08
I don't think PBS has enough viewers to pull that many people away from a TV show or an infomercial by giving out a wrong time. I'm sure a few, but I can't imagine enough to affect the ratings.
I'm with Lani. A majority of voters in Portland - especially Multnomah County - are Democrats and have already, or will be, voting for Obama.
Personally, I've been ignoring most races and ballot measures, because I already know how I'm voting. I bet there are a lot of other people in that same boat.
Oct 30, '08
Most of the reasons cited so far would apply to other places as well. Aren't they doing GOTV in swing states? ("You betcha!") Aren't there lots of decided voters in other states who don't need any more persuasion? Of course. And while the time change may be a part of it, LA, Alburquerque, Denver, and SF were still significantly higher than Portland.
I think Jeff's onto something here by seeing a connection between the low turnout so far and these low ratings. And it's not something good for Oregon. It indicates the possibility that for some unknown reasons, Oregonians just aren't terribly excited about this election. Which could make it more difficult for Merkley, and more difficult to get a supermajority in the state leg, and more difficult to defeat some of the bad ballot measures.
Oct 30, '08
Oddly enough, the Portland market extends around Bend and includes half of Eastern Oregon, including La Grande and Pendleton and Madras and Prineville. See the map here: http://www.truckads.com/Affiliate/Portland.htm
Oct 30, '08
Er, not Pendleton, sorry.
Oct 30, '08
A quick review of the chart with an eye toward timezones reveals that the tape delay was probably the issue.
The Eastern and Central timezones saw it live, while Mountain and Pacific saw it tape delayed.
Of the top 26 markets, none were in the Mountain or Pacific timezones.
I called each of the local affiliates ahead of time and they all said it would run at 8:00PM instead of live. So I said "thanks but no thanks." I'm tired of the left coast being cut out of the national conversation. My buddies at my favorite blog were already talking about it, once again we are screwed. Didn't mind so much about this because I watched him speak many times. The tape-delayed primary debates really frosted me, however.
2:45 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
I didn't watch it because I was still commuting back home when OPB said that it was on. Knowing that it was slated to be a half hour slot I didn't bother checking my TV when I got home because, according to what OPB radio said, it was already over and I'd missed it.
I had NO idea that it was going to be broadcast locally later in the evening. And I wouldn't have caught it by accident because I'm an OPB addict and that's the station that my TV is tuned to 95% of the time.
Oct 30, '08
I would have watched it, but I was under the impression it came on at 5 p.m. and I didn't get home until around 7:30. It would have been a lot better than the Lakers-Clippers game I started watching.
Oct 30, '08
I watched it on MSNBC with a whole group at 5pm from the East Coast Feed. Never trust that what is being reported is correct for Portland. Some of us are smart enough to figure out how to view it on cable at an earlier hour. Having been a media buyer for years Nielsen numbers grossly undereport cable viewers. Are you also aware that overnight numbers are household only and don't count number of people? Nielsen also can have an error factor of up to 50% so you have to use trends to support ratings. I watched the debates on CSpan along with many others. That audience was not included when debate viewing was reported. You jumped the gun on "guestimating" the Portland audience.
Oct 30, '08
People have touched on several items that probably combined to result in the lower viewership here. 1) Pacific Time viewers had it tape delayed, which made it less of an event here. 2) More voters in Portland than elsewhere have already voted. 3) Voters here are more decided, so watching is not as important in making a decision. 4) OPB announcing that it ran at 5:00 probably did have an impact, since the Portland market is the biggest market for NPR of any market in the nation.
As for the delayed ballot returns, I'm not concerned. We have seen a trend during the last decade of voters in Oregon holding their ballots longer in each election than they had previously, especially when there are many ballot measures. This is not a sign of disinterest, but rather a sign of voters taking extra time to research and make informed decisions (or at least to wait and see if anything big happens right before election day.) When the mail-in voting started, people were excited to get their ballots in as quickly as possible, but since then have started to take more time. I remember that two years ago and four years ago the same concern was raised about ballots not coming in as quickly as they had in prior years, but then larger numbers were returned in the last 24 hours, resulting in a higher turnout.
The responses I've received from voters while doing GOTV calls and canvasses make me confident that large numbers will be voting. What we're seeing is a change in how quickly they return ballots, not a change in actual voter turnout.
Oct 30, '08
Well my girlfriend and I had a dinner to go to last night. We are one of those Nielsen households, and would have watched it if we had been around. I watched it online this morning. So i think that should account for our last place position, and would have moved us up three spots.
Oct 30, '08
The first presidential debate got a freaking 74 share in Portland, the second highest in the country. We're not unenthusiastic about the election. You just chose an odd way to measure enthusiasm. It was an infomercial. And it was online before it was on TV here. That's where I watched it around 6pm.
http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/ratings1.pdf
4:14 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
You jumped the gun on "guestimating" the Portland audience.
I didn't guestimate anything. I reprinted Nielsen's numbers.
You just chose an odd way to measure enthusiasm.
Again, I wasn't measuring anything, and certainly not enthusiasm. My operating assumption, based on the 75k who watched Obama speak in Portland and casual observation of my Obama-mad friends, is that enthusiasm is very high. That's why this finding was odd.
In terms of statistics, I think it's valuable to note that there were other ways to watch the broadcast that weren't tracked. However, Nielsen's is an apples-to-apples comparison. They're measuring the same thing.
I am persuaded by Kari's observation about low viewership in the the West (where Obamania is rampant) and Jim R's four points to be good explanations.
Oct 30, '08
My wife is an avid Obama supporter. She didn't want to watch, knowing her mind is made up. Frankly your post falls in the category of concern trolling, contrived angst of a personal nature. You assert some connection with unreturned ballots with no evidence, and use this forum to broadcast some personal angst that is without substance. I would suggest simply deleting this whole topic.
5:18 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
I watched most of it on MSNBC while cooking dinner and my phone kept ringing. Then my daughter came in to talk with me about the choir concert we were getting ready to attend. So I ended up putting it on Ti-Vo. I haven't had time to replay it yet.
I keep hearing that it was brilliant, so I'm eager to watch it.
Oct 30, '08
Just so you know -"guestimating" is what we in the media buying business actually call Nielsen's and Arbitron's estimates. So yes you did "questimate."
Oct 30, '08
I watched it. I thought it was awesome. But I don't own a television; like most video programming I consume these days, I watched it over the Internet.
Oct 30, '08
Hey, we're an ACTIVE bunch here. We would much rather participate than simply watch a screen!
That's why we're all going to be out canvassing and working for our candidates this weekend!
(pathetically obvious hint)
Oct 30, '08
Why wait until 8pm when you could watch it on youTube at 6pm?
Anyway, as others have said, PDXer's have already voted.
Pablo
Oct 30, '08
Why wait until 8pm when you could watch it on youTube at 6pm?
Anyway, as others have said, PDXer's have already voted.
Pablo
10:28 p.m.
Oct 30, '08
I think a lot of people were out doing things regarding the campaigns instead of watching it when it came on tv.
It would be interesting to compare states that have a vote by mail system to those that don't. I have the feeling states like Oregon that have their ballots out already may have seen less people watching it when it came on because we're out doing GOTV.
<h2>I know I watched it late last night on You Tube.</h2>