Oregon House races: to-the-wire update
Carla Axtman
On Tuesday, I offered up a rundown of all 60 Oregon House races. Since then, I've been keeping an eye on stuff and chatting with my sources as we roll into Election Day. If you've got some time this weekend, go work on one of these races. Clicking on the candidates name will get you contact information for most the campaigns.
There are a few changes, as this update shows. I'm not going to post the solid Democratic and solid Republican seats this time--mostly because its redundant and a shitload of extra work for me. This post includes tossups and leaners only.
But before I get to the races, I want to make note of just how bad it is for the GOP, especially in Oregon. This morning, their Halloween press release landed in my inbox with the title "A Spooky Future". Their release articulates their concern over losing the Presidency, a filibuster-proof U.S. Senate and Nancy Pelosi (who is their boogeywoman--gotta have something to be SCARED of, dontcha know). By the time they get to Oregon races, the release is practically frantic:
What does Oregon look like? Ben Westlund and Kate Brown, career politicians with partisan records, now control two non-partisan statewide offices – Oregon Treasurer and Secretary of State. The Oregon House has a 36 seat majority and is now able to raise our taxes without consulting the Oregon taxpayer.Now that is a spooky future!
Only you can change this future! Vote Republican down your ballot today.
Their concern in justifiable. Unless something drastic happens, there's a very good chance that they'll be getting their asses handed to them--at least as far as the Oregon House goes.
Tossups:
District 6: Howe(D) v Esquivel (R): The buzz on this race for Howe is picking up. Republicans are in trouble here. Howe could pull it out with a weekend GOTV push. Moved from "Lean R".
District 18: Gilbert(D) v. Gilliam (R): This one has moved from "Lean R". Gilbert has done a superb job in this race and Gilliam is fading. With just four days to go, the big blue wave in Oregon might just push Gilbert over the top.
District 24: Hanson (D) v. Weidner (R): Hanson is surging in this district that's been a tough nut for Dems to crack. The buzz continues to build on this race as a good opportunity for a pickup. This one also moved from "Lean R".
District 26: Adamson (D) v. Wingard (R): I really, really, really, want this to go into the "Lean D" column, but I don't think its there. If you've got friends, family, people you can extort, etc. in this District, now's the time. Turnout, turnout, turnout.
District 37: Eberle (D) v. Bruun (R): This one is going to go down to the wire. It could be the one where we're up until 2AM while ballots are being counted.
District 39: Forsberg (D) v. Kennemer (R): Not moved from Tuesday. We're going to have to work this one HARD too. Could go either way.
District 59: Ahern (D) v. Huffman (R): Those of you who chastized me on this race this week were right to do so. Even though I've been following it, I didn't have the right read. It should have been at least "Lean R" in Tuesday's rundown (mea culpa!) It definitely deserves to be in "tossup" from what I hear now.
Lean Democratic:
District 49: Kahl (D) v. Nelsen (R): With financial issues continuing to dog Nelsen, Kahl is the likely winner of this one.
District 50: Matthews (D) v. Lim (R): It would be a great thing to have Greg Matthews in the Oregon House. I think his campaign has been good enough to get him there--but ousting an incumbent is tough. Matthews is within reach of snatching this one.
District 51: Barton (D) v. Flores (R): I have to admit, moving this race from "Toss Up" to "Leans D" is making me giddy. The Oregon House will be a much more effective and reasonable place without Linda Flores. Barton will serve the constituency extremely well, and they seem to have come around to that fact.
District 52: VanOrman (D) v. Lindland (R): TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT.
District 54: Stiegler (D) v. Burley (R): Even with Burley's popularity in the District, Stiegler appears to be overcoming the incumbency factor. This one has moved from "Toss Up" to "Leans D".
Lean Republican
District 1: Goche (D) v. Krieger (R): Same as last time. Krieger should have this one in his control but Goche is really busting it to give him a good run.
District 20: Riggs (D) v. Berger (R): Moved from "Solid R" to "Leans R" because of what I'm hearing about turnout. Apparently Riggs decided to turn off his computer and work on GOTV. Good. Hopefully it will be enough to unseat Berger...we'll see.
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10:32 a.m.
Oct 31, '08
Ben Westlund and Kate Brown, career politicians with partisan records, now control two non-partisan statewide offices
They're on crack. State Treasurer and Secretary of State are not non-partisan. (That's why Rick Dancer is promising to make SOS non-partisan!)
rolling eyes
10:35 a.m.
Oct 31, '08
Hmmm... I think I would switch Barton and Adamson.
I think Barton's a VERY close race that needs a big last-minute push, and I keep hearing reports from Wilsonville that Wingard's name-ID is huge -- and negative. "Oh, that screwdriver guy? I'm not voting for him."
Oct 31, '08
Damn, I knew I should have waited to do the Punditology challenge. Curse my impatience!
11:51 a.m.
Oct 31, '08
What Jim said. D'oh!
But on the races themselves, it will be interesting to see what the turnout ends up looking like. Kari's post showing a big Dem lead in early returns is promising. If we keep that up, it will really help at the leg race level.
Great work on this, Carla.
Oct 31, '08
From Jeff Mapes:
"There's not a single county in the state where R turnout has exceeded D turnout so far. And the gap is even slightly bigger in the key suburban counties of Washington and Clackamas counties."
http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/10/democrats_far_outpacing_gop_in.html
Made me think of a conversation with a friend's wife in late 2006. She'd been active in Polk Republican politics and gotten the turnout numbers from county clerk's office. She'd been disgusted at how much lower the R turnout rate was than the D turnout rate.
We've recently had voter turnout calls (incl. from the Riggs campaign) and someone from FWD Oregon come to our door to see if we had turned in our ballot yet.
In Marion County there are 2 main dropoff places--County Elections for walk-ins, and the drive through site downtown. The ballot box was FULL (up to the level of the slot, really had to push in the ballot envelopes) when I walked in and returned the ballots from our household near 5 pm a couple days ago, and people in line waiting to talk to staff at the counter.
I expect our local candidates will do well, whether or not they followed directions from bloggers who seem to value sarcastic remarks.
Oct 31, '08
This is one of the lamest election round-ups I've ever read, not because I agree or disagree with any of the rankings in particular, but simply because they are apparently based on NOTHING. Whatever happened to hard numbers or serious anecdotes from the district? I don't really trust your "feelings" of momentum.
This is the type of thing I would expect from Coyote, but not you Carla. You even are adopting Coyote's abuse of capitalizations and the word HARD! Maybe you should stick to the muckrucking and leave the serious reporting to real journalists.
12:33 p.m.
Oct 31, '08
Oh, I don't know. It's not really that much different than the kind of thing that the Washington Post's Chris Cilizza does.
In both cases, they talk to a lot of people, read a lot of stuff, stick it all in their mental blender, and provide an overall analysis.
If you trust it, you trust it. If you don't, you don't.
12:34 p.m.
Oct 31, '08
Carla
Lynn Howe is going to clean Esquivel's clock! Just letting you know early.
12:53 p.m.
Oct 31, '08
Paulie:
I would LOVE LOVE LOVE that!!
With the potential for all these wonderful new women in the House...it's fantastic.
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