CNN Reports McCain pulling out of Michigan
Paul Gronke
Wow. Superwow.
I always understood this race was going to be ultimately decided in three Western states (NM, NV, CO) and three industrial / rust belt states (MI, OH, PA).
I don't see how the electoral math works if McCain cedes MI. A single electoral vote in ME doesn't make that up, not by a long shot.
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1:46 p.m.
Oct 2, '08
Dubya won without Michigan. I don't know what they're thinking in the McCain camp, but maybe it's this: we'll win every state Dubya did, and we can cede one of the western states and hang on to win.
As it is, if Obama takes Iowa (he will), then McCain can still lose CO or NM or NV and win. But it looks very bad for them. They could quite legitimately lose this thing by over 100 electoral college votes.
1:52 p.m.
Oct 2, '08
Jeff That's what I'm hearing in DC (where I am right now)--the assumption is that they hold onto the states from 2004 and gain an electoral vote in ME.
But I think the core assumption--that the electoral map from 2004 will be essentially unchanged--can't be sustained by any polling data.
Oct 2, '08
WOW
<h2>I have no idea how this thing is gonna turn out, but this does not speak well for McCain, and that is a very very good thing!</h2>