Buzz Poll: Two Weeks Out
Jeff Alworth
The polls have plateaued, the narratives are fixed, and now we're just waiting for the vote to confirm our suspicions. But elections have a way of surprising people. What do you think will be this year's biggest surprise?
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connect with blueoregon
Oct 21, '08
Measure 57 will pass and 61 will not. There will be a great forehead-whacking sound across Multnomah County and an "Oh, well, it's almost as good" feeling in the rest of the state.
Oct 21, '08
Sorry Joel....they will both fail by the grace and good fortune of logic. Why we are all assuming and forcing people to vote for one or the other through ubiquitous drivel is beyond me. Do we not have a choice to vote NO on both? Just because it is on the ballot does not mean it is entilted to pass.
11:00 a.m.
Oct 21, '08
Actually Joel, that was what I was going to say. Voters want property crimes to be addressed, but many who would otherwise vote for Measure 61 are going to be persuaded that Measure 57 is the cheaper alternative.
The result: Measure 57 passes in a landslide. Measure 61 outright fails.
Oct 21, '08
You can vote Y for one or the other. However, you can't have both unless you don't want both. Logically, there are more ways to vote NO for the measures than voting Y. There are 3 scenarios vote voting on these two and there are two to vote N and one to vote Y on both.
Logically they will both fail. Spock would agree. Just because they are on the ballot does not mean you have to vote Y for them.
I will shut up now.
11:16 a.m.
Oct 21, '08
Support for 61 was very high in internal polling, which is why 57 was created. I don't like it one little bit that I had to vote Yes on 57, but without it, people I trust assure me that 61 would have been a shoo-in.
11:37 a.m.
Oct 21, '08
I'm with TJ--M61 has (or at least had) lots of steam behind it. If I thought it wasn't going to pass, I would have voted no on 57. There's just no argument to be made that locking up criminals--when rates are falling!--should be getting our precious dollars. But when I dropped off my ballot today, 57 had my fearful endorsement.
Oct 21, '08
My trust in the legislature my opinion of the reluctantly-pro-57 campaign are so low that I'm starting to suspect that it's actually the reverse -- support for 57 was low in internal polling and that's why 61 was created. But I guess the last 8 years of Democrats claiming they oppose the war and then voting to fund it have just soured me on legislatures in general.
Oct 21, '08
I worry that Ben Westlund might lose. Alley has been running a pretty aggressive campaign and has gotten quite a few newspaper endorsements. I hope I'm wrong on this one.
12:40 p.m.
Oct 21, '08
I trust the legislature far more than I trust Oregon voters, who really think that you can vote for a free lunch: massive lock-em-all-up-forever mentality, always cut my taxes, somehow thinking money grows on trees.
The only thing that has kept this State from dropping below Mississippi is the fact that the GOP can't seem to run anyone but child abusers, people who pretend to be against illegal aliens while hiring them, and rich anti-communist "pro-life" idiots who give money to their girlfriends to get abortions and go on junkets to Cuba.
If people were actually smarter than a fifth grader, no one would ever vote GOP. But instead, here we are yet again, doing our best to keep the voters from destroying the Oregon state budget.
Oct 21, '08
Eric Parker,
I knew Mr. Spock, and you are no Mr. Spock.
Oct 21, '08
Obama winning by a landslide is not an upset. Today's Pew poll has him up by 14 pts. It's been a steady gain over the past three weeks. And the internals look terrible for McCain. Early voters are going by 20 pts. for Obama. I won't be surprised if the 14 pts. holds.
What would be an upset is 60 Dem. senators, a veto proof majority. That is unlikely but within reach.
Oct 21, '08
While in the end he is going to lose I can see Rick Dancer doing better than most people originally thought he was going to do. That might be enough motivation to keep him in the game and we will end up seeing his name on a ballot in the near future expecially in one of our local or state leg races.
3:08 p.m.
Oct 21, '08
Nobody seems to understand that neither ballot measure would have been brought forward if the courts had been putting identity thieves in jail all along and the incompetents running the jails hadn't set the revolving doors in motion big time. But they didn't and so the piper has come calling.
I'm voting for 57 for far more than the single reason that it will beat Mannix into the ground. I'm for drug addiction treatment -- it's about time! I'm for jail for thieves -- even though the measure is wussy on this one. I'm also for hard labor jail time for large scale drug dealers -- provided we're talking about hard drugs. And I'm for a measure that pays for itself -- something Mannix cannot bring himself to advocate.
Oct 21, '08
Subject: Protect Your Right to Vote Now
We are on the eve of one of the most historic elections of our time. And the last thing America needs right now is another election that leaves us uncertain of its legitimacy.
Unfortunately, there are enough shenanigans going on to raise serious concerns.
The biggest of them all: Attorney General Mukasey and the Department of Justice (DOJ) are walking away from their sacred responsibility to guarantee smooth and fair elections.
While the government is engaged in a highly-publicized attempt to raise the specter of voter fraud against groups who have been working hard to register poor and minority voters, DOJ is doing little -- if anything -- to deal with the real problem -- hundreds of thousands, maybe millions, of registered voters who may turn up on Election Day just to be turned away.
I just asked the DOJ to take decisive action before Election Day to protect the right to vote for everyone. You can do the same here:
Election officials should concentrate their limited resources on expanding access to the ballot box and protecting voters. Demand that the Department of Justice act to protect voting rights.
http://action.aclu.org/protectthevote
4:13 p.m.
Oct 21, '08
Jeff,
Now that I've looked at your pollster link, why do you say the graph represents plateauing rather than the race beginning to tighten again after Obama opening a wide gap?
I hope Bill R. is right, but we shouldn't get complacent. Especially with the imponderables of the extent of a Bradley effect, if any, and of voter suppression election fraud.
4:59 p.m.
Oct 21, '08
Jeff You should have added "Every single money measure on the ballot will fail." I actually think that everything other than (including?) the Children's Levy may fail.
But I voted for the Sizemore choice because I think there is a good chance that the federal deduction measure may pass.
Oct 21, '08
I trust the legislature far more than I trust Oregon voters
Ewwww
Oct 21, '08
Jeff Mapes told News Channel 8 today that Democrats have a real chance to pick up enough seats in the Oregon legislature to pass tax increases without a vote of the people.
Let's hope that the new Democratic majority will pass a tax increase on Loren Parks, the Jeld-Wen guy, and anyone else who donated to these inane ballot measures that are pimped by Sizemore or Mannix.
Oct 21, '08
This is the first election in which my daughter gets to vote on statewide measures. While I encourage her to educate herself on the measures I did give her one piece of advice, if Bill Sizemore's name is anywhere on it, VOTE NO. Maybe someday he will go away.
8:53 a.m.
Oct 22, '08
"Other" responses added by voters in the poll:
Merkley wins Measure 65 goes down. Yay!! The McCain campaign will, for all practical purposes, run out of money at least Oregon House ends up with 40 Dems and 20 Rs
12:30 p.m.
Oct 22, '08
Clearly, mp97303, you've never canvassed voters. I have.
To quote the inestimable Winston Churchill: "The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."
Our legislature is mostly composed of people who understand basic logic.
Oct 22, '08
Was it Thomas Jefferson who said, "The best argument for democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average aristocrat"?
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