Senate '08: The latest polls, ads, and news (fresh, never frozen)
Kari Chisholm
While we've all been watching the drama that is Gordon Smith's hiring practices at his frozen food plant, there's been lots more news in the Senate race. Here's a rundown of the latest quick hits:
- Rasmussen reports that the race is a dead heat - down from an eight-point lead just a month ago in the same poll. Smith 46, Merkley 45, +/- 4%
- Speaking on KGW's Decision 2008, NBC political director Chuck Todd (the smartest numbers guy in the biz), had this to say tonight about the race:
Well, it's interesting. I've been hearing about a lot of polling - polling that I trust a lot more than some of these public polls that are out there - that have just shown this race dead even from the beginning.
Now, look, we got a clue that this race was moving away from Gordon Smith a few months ago when he went up with that ad that praised Obama. ...
That told you just how much political trouble that Gordon Smith saw himself in.
This is easily one of the five or six most competitive races at this point in the Senate. I know we don't expect it to move very much. It's going to stay this tight all the way to November.
- Should Gordon Smith really be airing his rapist ad during afternoon children's programming? From the Jeff Mapes blog:
Rep. Sara Gelser, D-Corvallis, says she was home Friday afternoon watching "Little House on the Prairie" on the Hallmark Channel with three of her children (aged 13, 8 and 7) when one of Smith's ads aired.
Gelser, a Merkley supporter, said she wasn't happy to see the ad aired during the day on a show aimed at families. "I was glad my daughter didn't ask me what a serial child rapist is because I wasn't interested in explaining that to a 7-year-old," she said.
- As usual, the Republicans are trying to portray the Democratic candidate as a big tax guy. Funny thing -- some of Gordon Smith's supporters are rising to defend Jeff Merkley on taxes. From the Register-Guard:
Former Eugene state Rep. Pat Farr recalled that the [Measure 30] tax plan was actually the brainchild of a group of moderate Republicans, including himself. They called themselves members of the “rat bastard caucus” because they stood apart from other GOP members in their support of higher taxes as a bailout for the state government’s recession-ravaged budget.
“We’d gone through 13 quarters of recession and 13 quarters of having to cut services and it was essential at that point in time that we determine what services we wanted to provide,” said Farr, now a public affairs consultant.
Farr said he supports Smith’s re-election, but could not fault his former House colleague and racquetball opponent for his votes in support of raising taxes and fees.
“Jeff Merkley has been judicial in his approach to that,” he said.
- In another story, the Register-Guard makes it clear that Gordon Smith is a good pal with George W. Bush:
Gordon Smith stood shoulder-to-shoulder with President Bush in July 2006, voting to make it a federal crime to drive a pregnant girl across a state line for an abortion. ...
When it comes to tax cuts decried for disproportionately aiding big corporations and the wealthy, though, Smith has seen eye-to-eye with Bush.
- Here's a fantastic compilation of 13 years of Gordon Smith TV ads. Looks like Jeff Merkley is in good company.
- Meanwhile, the DSCC's independent expenditure team is running an ad about Gordon Smith and his treatment of our troops and our veterans.
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Sep 17, '08
[Off-topic comment removed. -editor.]
10:51 p.m.
Sep 17, '08
Full disclosure: My firm built Jeff Merkley's website, but I speak only for myself.
9:37 a.m.
Sep 18, '08
I know a lot of people who are itching to volunteer, to help the Democrats. I'm doing some voter reg for Obama, but have decided to put most of my efforts toward Merkley -- Obama is going to win here but the Merkley race is far more close.
So, off to the office on Monday I go...who else?
Sep 18, '08
Rasmussen has a voter ID screen that leans R and certainly doesn't take into account the 150,000 new Dem voters. That said, if they calculate it's even, it means Jeff may be ahead, and confirms the close race Benenson polling came up with. Smith has lost a double digit lead and his association with W is sinking him, along with his own hypocrisy about hiring undocumented.
Sep 18, '08
That Smith "hotdog" ad has been running 24/7 here in Portland.
It epitomizes how Republican's have won elections in the past 2 Presidential cycles:
So far, this election is shaping out like the 1988 election and Republicans are loving the day-to-day, bullshit minutiae that runs on Hannity & Colmes, while the average American gets screwed up the proverbial ass because the campaigns are in the gutter talking about this word and that word.
Will this election ever get serious and seriously debate fundamental policy difference beyond the scripted debates?
I hope so for the future of this nation.
Sep 18, '08
I've been wondering why it appears McCain has written off Oregon. Perhaps this is the reason, Hibbitts Portland Trib poll has Obama up by ten pts.50-40. Just out. http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/18/portland_tribune_obama_holds_double_digit_lead_in_oregon.html?disqus_reply=2436283#comment-2436283
Sep 18, '08
Hats off to former Rep. Pat Farr for his memory of the history of the M30 tax plan and for stepping up to share it. (I was in the loop of the rat bastard caucus, too, and vouch for his version of "the rest of the story.") But I'm hoping the good gentleman was misquoted in this: "'Jeff Merkley has been judicial in his approach to that,' he said." While the topic was related to the making of law, I think the better term would be "judicious."
Judicious = wise, showing good judgment Judicial = relating to courts of law or judges
Sep 18, '08
Kari, please run a diary on this. The Dem. Congress is getting ready to capitulate to Bush and vote for a half-trillion dollar bail out of the Wall Street mess. The deal involves creating a second Resolution Trust Corporation and pushing all the bad debt on to the tax payer. This needs to be stopped. And it will mean the loss of the election by Obama and the Dem. Congress.
Sep 18, '08
Moonbat: I share your angst. Eventually you will realize that politicians NEVER debate substantively. THat is not the nature of campaigns nor campaigning. Nor is it the gist of the Fourth Estate. It's a mighty big windmill you keep running at: speaking to reality as a campaign.
It's never going to happen: never has, never will. We make do with a few crumbs of sense, fluff them up into a wedding cake and proclaim our candidate good.
But vote we must, and so it goes. But do not hold your breath, dear MoonBat. You'll be an old, old person before you ever see that dream of yours made real.
Substance. In a campaign. On either side.
Bill R: please explain more about loss of election for Dems. I am unsure of this connection to stopping the disaster about to be rammed through the way Homeland Security, Iraq were shoved through.
I too am anxious about this new development. LIstening to the analytists deny such bailouts (labled as loans as late as today????) "can continue" and in the next breath describing the planned and likely-added.. continuations.
Sep 19, '08
@ Rebecca
<h2>My fear is that the Dem Congress and Prez candidate, Obama, will be pressured into making a deal, supporting the Bush admin plan- the proposal under consideration to buy the "Illiquid" assets or shift this bad debt of investment bankers in order to save the banking system. This would transfer (now estimating) one trillion $ to us, the tax payers, or to our grandchildren. The fallout of this might be to doom our election chances this year.</h2>